Zhou Jinzhu: In the second quarter, foreign trade enterprises' trade volume showed a recoverable growth momentum

Zhongxin Jingwei July 18th.

Author Zhou Jinzhu Director and Associate Researcher of the International Trade Research Department of the China Trade Promotion Association

Since May of this year, with the overall improvement of the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation, the effectiveness of policy and measures has gradually emerged, and foreign trade operations have changed positively. According to customs statistics, in the first half of this year, my country's total import and export value of goods trade was 1.98 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.4%year -on -year. Among them, exports were 11.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.2%; imports were 8.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8%. In the first half of the year, the import and export of my country's foreign trade showed a strong toughness. In the first quarter, it started steadily. In May and June, it quickly reversed the trend of decline in the growth rate in April, laying a solid foundation for the overall foreign trade stability and quality.

The operating situation of foreign trade companies in the second quarter has improved significantly

my country's foreign trade enterprises have restimated the growth momentum in the second quarter. The export profit of most industries has improved significantly compared with the first quarter. The growth of some industries has shown new highlights, and the new order situation is more optimistic.

With the strengthening of the production and operation guarantee of foreign trade enterprises in various places, and guiding enterprises to re -work in an orderly manner, foreign trade enterprises in the second quarter of trade and profits have improved significantly compared with the first quarter. The survey showed that 25.43%of corporate trade rose month -on -month, and 19.98%of corporate profits rose from the previous month.

In the second quarter, thanks to the superposition effects of the country's various foreign trade policies, most of the industrial export profits improved significantly compared with the previous quarter. The survey shows that black metals, special equipment manufacturing, fur products and shoes, automobiles, and mining foreign trade growth momentum is sufficient, with 34.88%, 25.97%, 25.42%, 24.77%, and 24.36%of companies, respectively. increase. Recently, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Promoting Foreign Trade Preservation and Stability" to encourage innovation, green, and high value -added products to develop the international market. Special equipment manufacturing, automobiles, computer communication and other electronic equipment, pharmaceutical manufacturing and other high value -added industries have increased their export profits in the second quarter than the previous quarter.

In addition, the pace of foreign trade enterprises in the second quarter has accelerated significantly. The survey showed that 22.65%of companies said that new orders in the second quarter increased from the first quarter, and 30.43%of companies said that the growth of orders in the second quarter was the same as the first quarter. Foreign trade enterprises have more diversified sources of orders in the order market and stronger anti -risk capabilities. The survey shows that in the second quarter, the top three of the newly added orders in foreign trade enterprises were the European Union, the United States and ASEAN, respectively. In the second quarter, the number of new orders was more scattered than the first quarter. The proportion of orders has increased. At the same time, 2.04%of foreign trade enterprises said that new orders in the second quarter came from domestic, and foreign trade companies began to gradually explore the path of integrated development of domestic and foreign trade.

The main problems faced by foreign trade companies in the second quarter have improved significantly

After various localities, relevant departments, and the majority of foreign trade enterprises, a series of effects of foreign trade policies have gradually emerged. At present, the main difficulties facing foreign trade enterprises are still concentrated in two aspects of "one liter and one drop". Decrease; the problems of freight, funds, exchange rates, employment and other issues have been effectively relieved.

Affected by the impact of the epidemic and the comprehensive influence of the international situation, the purchase cost of raw materials for foreign trade enterprises is still high. The survey showed that 70.42%of companies said that rising raw material costs were the biggest difficulty. In the second quarter, the purchase price index of the raw materials of my country's manufacturing industry was still in the expansion range, but it continued to decrease. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the purchase price index of the main raw materials in June was 52.0%, a year -on -year decrease of 9.2 percentage points, and a decrease of 3.8 percentage points from the previous month.

The problem of the decline in foreign trade companies' orders is still not optimistic. The survey showed that 21.32%of companies said that the new order in the second quarter increased from the same period last year, and the proportion decreased by 2.14 percentage points from the first quarter; 52.5%of the company said that the new order in the second quarter decreased from the same period last year. At the same time, 66.02%of companies felt the diversion of orders.

Affected by the situation of Russia and Ukraine, global traditional energy prices have soared, and the World Bank expects that energy prices will rise by more than 50%in 2022. In the second quarter, WTI New York crude oil CFD fluctuated greatly, and the upward trend was obvious. In June, the international energy price index rose by 82.33%year -on -year and 6.42%month -on -month.

With the implementation of the country's strong orderly and orderly implementation of the implementation of the seductive transportation policies such as sea and air ports, the efforts to ensure that the logistics of foreign trade enterprises from domestic transportation, entry and exit, port loading and unloading to ship cabinets continues to increase, and domestic logistics costs are high The problem eased. In the second quarter, the average monthly value of China's export container freight index decreased by 8.41%from the first quarter, which maintained a downward trend.

As the state further strengthens the financial support policies of small and medium -sized foreign trade enterprises, the problem of difficulty financing and expensive financing has been eased. The survey showed that 15.05%of companies believed that the cost of funds decreased compared with the same period last year, and the ratio increased by 3.38 percentage points from the previous quarter. 19.75%of the companies reflected the international situation and influenced cross -border settlement.

The basic trend of foreign trade is obvious

After the implementation of a series of foreign trade preservation and quality policies in my country, the implementation of great efforts to improve the quality and improvement policy of foreign trade, the import demand for major trading partners in my country is strong, the foreign trade enterprise's understanding and utilization of RCEP shows a good trend, and the new model of trade formats and new models has gradually emerged on the promotion of foreign trade promotion. The three major issues that my country's foreign trade enterprises face the demand contraction, supply impact, and expected weakness are gradually alleviating. my country's major trading partners have maintained a significant increase in imports since the second quarter. The EU imports in April increased by 45.42%year -on -year, the import volume in the United States increased by 23.65%year -on -year. %.

In April 2022, my country is the largest source of imports in the European Union. The proportion of the total imports of the EU imports was 19.30%, a year -on -year decrease of 1.54 percentage points. In May, my country is the second largest source of imports in the United States. The proportion was 15.37%, an increase of 1.41 percentage points year -on -year.

Since the beginning of this year, foreign trade companies have risen significantly in the second quarter. The survey shows that 18.91%of foreign trade enterprises have used RCEP; another 21.37%of foreign trade enterprises said that export products have better tariff discounts on the original bilateral FTA, so RCEP has not been used yet.

The state continues to increase the policy support for the new model of trade formats, the foreign trade enterprises actively innovate, strive to transform and upgrade, and the government and the market entity form joint efforts. Limited negative effects. The survey shows that 42.43%of foreign trade enterprises believe that comprehensive foreign trade services have the greatest role in promoting exports; the role of cross -border e -commerce is second, accounting for 21.2%; Comparison, about 13%.

The country has successively introduced a series of foreign trade policies to help enterprises have rescued difficulties since this year. At present, the effect of the policy is obvious. The survey shows that 55.97%of companies believe that accelerating export tax refund helps the company's relief pressure to relieve cash flow pressure, and 54.8%and 48.21%respectively believe that speeding up tax cuts and alleviating the pressure of logistics is more effective in solving the difficulty of the actual operation of foreign trade enterprises. Enterprises have a high degree of policy recognition of customs clearance and financial support, all reaching more than 30%.

Foreign trade enterprises have increased significantly on annual growth expectations

Comprehensive analysis of factors such as the domestic international production pilot index and the expectations of large and medium -sized foreign trade enterprises. Although my country's foreign trade growth pressure is still large, it is expected that foreign trade growth will show a V -type trend throughout the year.

The impact of the epidemic on domestic and international production has gradually weakened, and the level of domestic and international manufacturing industry has shown a good trend. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the PMI of my country's manufacturing industry continued to rise in the second quarter, rising to 50.2%in June, and returned to the expansion range after three consecutive months. Among the 21 industries surveyed Thirteen, the manufacturing prosperity surface is positive. As of June, Morgan Chase global manufacturing PMI, the American ISM manufacturing PMI, and the Markit manufacturing PMI of the euro zone have been located above the Rongku Line for 24 consecutive months.

Foreign trade enterprises' confidence in annual trade growth has recovered compared to the first quarter. Middle -sized enterprises are more optimistic about the overall foreign trade situation, and large enterprises are expected to be relatively stable. Although small and micro enterprises are still weak, they will recover from expectations in the first quarter. The survey shows that 42.17%of medium -sized enterprises and 31.32%of large enterprises believe that the annual trade volume can achieve year -on -year growth, and 21.9%of small and micro enterprises are expected to achieve growth throughout the year.

Foreign trade enterprises' suggestions on policies are still concentrated in three aspects: stable logistics costs, tax cuts, and export tax rebates. It is mainly due to the large number of external challenges, enterprises urgently hope to strive for continuous development through the decline in operating costs. In the future, the effect of expanding foreign trade policies, it is recommended to make efforts to reduce the cost of reducing the cost of foreign trade enterprises, broadening the channels for enterprise insurance orders to grab orders, safeguarding the overseas interests of enterprises, and strengthening the docking of processing trade enterprises in the East and Middle and Western regions. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

This article was selected by the Sino -Singapore Jingwei Research Institute. The copy of the work produced by the selected work, the copyright of the work, is not authorized by any unit or individual. The views involved in the selected content only represent the original author and do not represent the view of the Sino -Singapore Jingwei.

Editor -in -chief: Sun Qingyang intern Zhou Sijing

- END -