LPR was released in July!The probability of subsequent 5 -year LPR reduction is high?

The People's Bank of China authorized the inter -bank interbank borrowing center announced that on July 20, 2022, the loan market quotation interest rate (LPR) was: one -year LPR was 3.7%, and the LPR of more than 5 years was 4.45%, which was the same as last month.

LPR remained unchanged in July

Dongfang Jincheng chief macro analyst Wang Qing believes that the MLF interest rate remained unchanged in July, which means that the foundation of LPR quotation in the month has not changed; in terms of points, the RRRC has not been implemented after April, and other new banks have not been introduced in the near future. Cost -down measures, and the scale of loans in June was sharply high, and the loan interest rate was near the minimum level of history. As a result, from the perspective of bank capital costs and the balance of supply and demand in the loan market, the July quotation bank lacks the motivation to reduce the increase. In addition, the May 5 -year LPR quotation was reduced by 15 basis points, which is large, which will also digest the voltage effect on bank liabilities for the cost of bank liabilities to a certain extent. As a result, LPR quotes in July meet the general expectations of the market.

Guotai Junan analyst Zhang Xinang also said that the LPR of the 1 -year and 5 -year period remains unchanged in line with market expectations, indicating that the pattern of loose monetary policy has not changed. At the same time, the agency pointed out that the recent market has a relatively large impact on liquidity, not MLF, nor LPR, but the central bank's reverse repurchase.

"Prior to July this year, the central bank's inverse repurchase operation scale was an integer multiple of 10 billion yuan or 10 billion yuan. In a period of relatively stable liquidity, inverse repurchase operations are usually 10 billion yuan. However, From July 4th to July 15th, the central bank conducted 3 billion reverse repurchase operations in a row, which once triggered the market to worry about currency tightening. "Guotai Junan believes that the changes in the number of daily counter-repurchase operations of the central bank cannot represent the steering of monetary policy.

There is still room for subsequent reduction

Wang Qing believes that the probability of the 5 -year LPR quotation in the third quarter has a greater probability that it will be reduced again alone; depending on the investment and consumption restoration momentum in the second half of the year, it does not rule out the possibility of a small LPR quotation. "Stabilizing MLF interest rate+down reduction LPR quotation" will be a specific move to "take into account both internal and external balance" while maintaining a stable growth orientation in the coming period.

Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Everbright Bank Financial Market Department, also said that from the perspective of the trend, the LPR interest rate still has room for reduction. The reason is that the domestic economic growth and employment in the second half of the year still need policy support. In the second half of the year, policies and measures that have been introduced will continue to be implemented. Whether the central bank will further launch an incremental policy tool also needs to pay attention to subsequent consumption and investment recovery.

Guotai Junan pointed out that under the current framework of monetary policy, the price ratio is more important, the price is interest rate, and the amount is the central bank's currency amount. In other words, the amount of interest rate Bit currency is more able to reflect the central bank's monetary policy attitude. With the advancement of economic growth, the large tone of the central bank's monetary policy has not changed. In the future, MLF and LPR interest rates still have room for further decline.

CITIC Securities said that the total policy will continue to make efforts in the second half of the year, and the cumulative policies in the early stage will begin to take effect in June. The monetary policy "is still the main" of me. "It is still loose. It is expected that the LPR1 annual downgrade is 0-5bps in the third quarter and 5-10bps in the five-year downgrade. In the fourth quarter, the LPR may continue to be lowered according to domestic inflation and economic situation.

Source: Financial Times, First Financial Information

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