LPR continued to be stable in July, and there is still room for low -reduction in the industry forecast in the future.

Jimu Journalist Leihara

On July 20, the People's Bank of China authorized the National Bank of China Interbank Borrowing Center to announce that on July 20, 2022, the loan market quotation interest rate (LPR): one -year LPR is 3.7%, and the LPR of more than 5 years is 4.45%. It remained consistent last month. The above LPR is valid before the LPR is released next time.

Screenshots are from the official website of the People's Bank of China

Since the beginning of this year, the LPR of more than 5 years has been reduced twice. 15 basis points. The 1 -year LPR has remained unchanged for 6 consecutive months.

Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is a representative offer to disclose the market operating interest rate (mainly referring to the convenience rate of medium -term lending) plus points. Calculating and announced the basic loan reference interest rate, each financial institution should mainly refer to LPR for loan pricing. The current LPR includes two varieties of 1 -year and 5 years. The marketization of LPR is high. It can fully reflect the supply and demand of the credit market. Use LPR for loan pricing can promote the formation of market -oriented loan interest rates, increase market interest rates toward market interest rates towards Credit interest rate conduction efficiency.

Does the LPR continue to reduce the space in the second half of this year?

Zou Lan, director of the Department of Monetary Policy of the People's Bank of China, said at the press conference of the State Council News Office held recently that in April this year, the People's Bank of China guided the establishment of a adjustment mechanism for the marketization of deposit interest rates. Essence Members of interest rate self -discipline mechanisms can independently determine the level of deposit interest rates in accordance with their own situation, referring to the bond market interest rate represented by the 10 -year Treasury bond yield and the loan market interest rate represented by the one -year LPR. Since the establishment of this mechanism, according to changes in market interest rates, various banks have actively adjusted the level of deposit interest rates. According to preliminary statistics, in June this year, the average interest rate of new deposits incurred in banks across the country was about 2.32%, which was reduced by 0.12 percentage points compared with April before adjustment.

"The establishment of the market -oriented adjustment mechanism of deposit interest rates has significantly enhanced the price of deposit interest rate marketization, which is conducive to maintaining a good competitive order in the deposit market, stabilizing the cost of bank liabilities, promoting reducing actual loan interest rates, and better supporting the development of the real economy." Zou Lan said that in recent years, the People's Bank of China has established a sound market -oriented interest rate formation and conduction mechanism, forming a conduction mechanism that affects LPR through market interest rates and central bank guidance to affect LPR, and then affect loan interest rates and deposit interest rates. In the next stage, the People's Bank of China will continue to deepen the market -oriented reform of interest rates, continuously release the effectiveness of LPR reform, give full play to the role of market -oriented adjustment mechanism for deposit interest rates, give full play to the role of interest rate self -discipline mechanism, maintain the good competition order of the market, promote the continued reduction of the actual loan interest rate, allow The majority of market entities in the market feel that the cost of comprehensive financing has really declined.

"I personally think that the one -year LPR and LPRs above 5 years have not continued to be lowered for the past two months. One of the more important reasons is that Shanghai as China's economic town as China's economic town, which has been affected by the epidemic some time ago; The shadow of the epidemic and economic growth highlight the toughness. On the whole, although everyone has room for economic expectations, the pessimistic emotions have passed, so there is no possibility of continuing to be lowered for the time being. " In an interview with Jimu Journalists, it was only in the short term that it did not continue to be lowered in the short term. If the time was put in more than three or five years, the overall logic of this lowered will not change.

"Interest rates have been reduced some time ago and the maintenance of the past two months. From the perspective of residents, we can see that everyone still prefer savings, and the preference for investment and consumption is relatively weak. In the past two months More money is deposited into the bank. "Wen Jing pointed out that from another perspective, many long -term loans, including housing loans that are closely related to us, are linked to interest rates, so the long -term downgrade of interest rates in the future is actually beneficial to help Reduce the pressure of residents' loan repayment. If it is not lowered in the short term, the pressure of repayment of loans is temporarily existing in the context of current revenue decrease and decline in future economic expectations.

"According to the historical experience of developed countries, in the long run, this interest rate will definitely decline in the future." Wen Jing said that if the country wants to stimulate consumption, encourage the flow of funds in the market, and encourage residents to spend the money in their hands, then in the short term It is still likely to continue to be lowered.

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