The interest rate resolution is announced!The price of gold has risen!

The international gold price has rebounded strongly from July 21 at 1680.2 US dollars/ounce. As of press time, it opened today at $ 1733.1/ounce. The main reason for the gold price rebound is that the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike expects to digest, and the Fed’ s chairman Powell conference stated that it was interpreted as a pigeon.

Today, the Fed announced the latest interest rate hikes in interest rate hikes, which basically meets market expectations. This is the second time the Federal Reserve raised 75 basis points after the 75 basis points raised interest rates in June. The Fed's continuous interest rate hike has pushed up the US dollar index and has also pushed up concerns about the decline in the US economy. Next September, the interest rate hike of the Fed in September became the next focus of market attention.

In 2022, the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates in March 25 basis points, 50 basis points raised interest rates in May, and 75 basis points raised interest rates in June and July, highlighting the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes when US President Biden asked to control inflation. Compared with the continuous interest rate hikes of the Federal Reserve, since the outbreak of geopolitical conflicts broke out in March, with the decline in geographical factors to decline and decreased down.

International gold price trend chart

US dollar index monthly drawing picture source: Sina Finance

1

Powell speech interpretation

This interest rate hike basically meets the market expectations -50 basis points of interest rate hikes are significantly favorable for gold prices, and 75 basis points in interest rate hikes basically meet the expectations, and the interest rate hikes 100 basis points are empty gold prices. The main reason for the rebound in the gold price was that the Federal Reserve Powell stated at the press conference after the interest rate hike.

Powell said at the press conference that the current obvious situation is that the US labor market is extremely tight, the inflation rate is too high, and the current interest rate hike is appropriate. Powell acknowledged that some data indicators in the United States have been softened in the near future, and economic growth and consumption expenditure are also slowing down, but he believes that due to the strong data market data, the US economy has not fallen into a decline.

According to Powell, it may be appropriate to once again "abnormal interest rate hikes" in September, but Powell pointed out that this will depend on macro data, including inflation data and labor market data before the next interest rate resolution. Powell emphasized that the US monetary policy is currently in a neutral state, which means that the Fed may soon slow down to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes.

Powell did not provide clear guidance on the exact rate of interest rate hikes in the future. Based on the content of its speech, the market interpreted its speech as pigeons, and international gold prices benefited from rebounding.

2

Analyst's point of view

Zhang Yingying, a precious metal analyst at COFCO Qi Defeng (Beijing), believes that the Fed announced that 75 basis points raised their interest rates and adjusted the interest rate of federal funds to 2.25%-2.5%. Slow, but this may be necessary. According to the experience of the 1970s and 1980s, the Fed is still inclined to exchange for stable prices at the cost of economic recession. Due to the short -term littering, the price of gold and silver rose after the Federal Reserve's policy landed. At present, the Federal Reserve has the highest probability of raising interest rates at 50 basis points at the September meeting. At the end of this year, it raised interest rates to 3.25 ~ 3.5%.

Based on this, the Fed ’s rapid interest rate hike may have passed on the biggest impact on gold prices, and economic recession is expected to support the price of gold in the remote end. She still maintains the previous point of view. During the year, the price of gold was mainly based on oscillation. The $ 1700 ~ 1750/ounce may be a low -cost range during the year.

75 basis points in the Federal Reserve in July will be expected. On the one hand, interest rate hikes increase the attractiveness of the US dollar, and on the other hand, currency contraction is not good for the economy. In order to give balancing these two aspects, we expect that the degree of interest rate hikes will remain smooth or declined, which will bring the foundation for gold prices to rebound.

Yu Jiasong, the Department of Green Dahua Industrial Agency, said that the Fed's 75 basis points in July will raise interest rates on the one hand to increase the appeal of the US dollar, but on the other hand, currency contraction is not good for the economy. Based on the two aspects of balance, he expects the subsequent interest rate hikes to remain smooth or declined, which brings the foundation for the rebound to gold prices.

Liang Yonghui, the deputy general manager of the gold and silver building, expressed optimism about the price of gold. Liang Yonghui pointed out that from the perspective of the week, the bottom characteristics of gold and silver platinum appear at the bottom, and in the future face a round of rise, that is, not falling or sideways will cause gold and silver platinum to have a round of weekly rise and rebound. From the perspective of the daily line, since the price of gold on April 28, 2022, the main force intervention has fallen and fell down, and it is in the main control.

In the mid -term, the current gold and silver platinum has started a round of bull market since 2018. It reached the top in early 2022, and then adjusted the sideways. After the main force seduces at this price, it is expected to continue to press the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike.

At this stage, the Fed is interested in suppressing inflation through interest rate hikes. At present, non -ferrous varieties such as gold, silver, platinum, platinum, copper, aluminum, nickel, etc. have officially entered the decline in the decline since 2018 to geopolitical conflict rising bull markets since mid -June 2022. It has been transferred to the first support position. In March, August, and July 2021, the price of gold fell below $ 1700/ounce. At the same time, the US dollar index, the US dollar index 93.2 in March 2021, the US dollar index 92.67 in August 2021, and the US dollar index high in July 2022 109.29. In the past year, the US dollar index has risen by 19%, but the price of gold has not been hit. At present, gold, silver, and platinum are at the bottom of the weekly -level technology. The market should face a strong round of technical rise, which will cause gold prices to rebound a round of rebound. However, non -ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, etc. are in the middle of the bear market, and there are still more than 15%of the possibility of falling space. Therefore, the price of gold and silver is currently at a relatively low level, but it is not absolutely low. warehouse.

The Fed's interest rate hike is being digested by the market, but the United States has recently issued a withdrawal from Ukraine, suggesting that there may be more serious geopolitical conflicts. The current world is facing a extremely unstable environment. At the bottom of the Kangbo cycle, war and other may induce uncontrollable situations. As a result, risk aversion will be re -attracted to the market.

The current price of gold is at the level of medium -term bulls. The median price is $ 1680/ounce, and the price of silver is 18.2 US dollars/ounce is a phased relative bottom (probability of 70%), but it may not be absolute bottom. Standing at a stabilization of 1680 US dollars/ounce, the gold price is at the right bowl of the bowl -shaped bottom, which will brew a round -line bull market (60%of the occurrence), and the price of silver fluctuates with the rhythm of the gold price. At present, you no longer continue to look at the honeysuckle market, mainly trying to do more attempts. Even if gold and silver continues to fall, not empty.

The US dollar 100 years ago was not today's dollar, and the gold 100 years ago was still today's gold.

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