Cai Yan, former deputy dean of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: negative population growth becomes a trend, and future consumption is the main restriction of economic growth

Cover Journalist Lei Qiang

On July 30, at the 2022 China Fortune Forum, Cai Yan, the former vice president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and chief expert of the National High -end Think Tank, and a member of the Central Bank Monetary Policy Committee, shared the views of population growth and economic development.

"According to the new forecast, probably this year or next year, China's population reaches its peak, and then enters negative growth. At the same time, the population of India exceeds China, and the future gap will be very significant." Cai Yan said that these data means that China has officially entered the negative population growth of the population. In the era, this is not a cycle, not fleeting, almost forever, the new population turning point may bring a new impact.

Cai Yan pointed out that the past population and economic growth was a slowdown. Therefore, the total population effect of the population was a factor that caused the downturn of consumption. Human growth was slow or negative. The speed is slowed, and the income level will also slow down. These will directly affect consumption. In the future, the population will grow negatively, and the growth rate of GDP will be lower. These will suppress residents' consumption at a considerable level.

"The trend of aging in the world, the negative growth of the population, or the stagnation of the population will become a trend." Cai Yan said that consumption is the main, normal, and continuous constraints of future consumption. This is the concept we must change. my country's demand structure no longer depends on external demand, exports, and no longer relying on investment. Capital formation has gradually shifted to consumption in troidee, especially residents' consumption has become the main driving force. The population growth rate is slow or negative, and consumption will definitely be affected.

Cai Yan mentioned that in the era of negative population, our country's policies, corporate decisions, and personal choices will change. The population is a very important catalyst in the allocation of resources. In the final analysis, the population fluctuations are reflected in different forms. Therefore, negative population growth means the decrease in the increase in resource mobilization. "Economic development is increasingly dependent on the re -allocation of resources. The past may be to make big cakes, and the future is to better allocate cakes. The normal constraints of economic growth, from the supply side to the demand side, is also a brand new challenge This challenge should be changed to help us make new changes in many major decisions. "

In the era of negative population growth, new changes present, Cai Yan summarizes four points: first, from the supply side restrictions to the changes in demand side constraints; second, the role of finance will be more important than the monetary policy in the future. The direction of the expenditure will also change, and it will be more affixed to people's livelihood, and it will be more affixed to social benefits.

Third, from the change of market subject, the production subject of the producer operator to the family's standard, "Family is the basic unit of our population re -production, the basic unit of consumption, and affecting the demand factor." Fourth, Cai Yan pointed out In the past, the gap between income was large, and many wealth managers stared at the middle income group. However, in the future, middle -income groups are still smaller than China's 1.4 billion population.

In the end, Cai Yan mentioned that in the next ten years, it is a critical period for achieving basic modernization. During this period, some special groups such as the rural population and migrant workers who have just escaped poverty alleviation have faced from low income to medium to medium to medium. In the process of income groups, this transformation process should also be the object and source of profit for financial and wealth management.

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