Breeding ETF rose by more than 2%, and still needs to pay attention to the possibility of short -term callbacks

On July 29, A shares fluctuated lower, and the GEM finger led. The two cities in the early days failed, and then continued to fall, and the decline and volume of the afternoon expanded. On the industry sector, the breeding was strong throughout the day. The vehicle was rushing in the afternoon, and the decline in coal, medicine, and food and beverages. Overall stocks fell more, and more than 3,300 stocks in the two cities fell.

As of the closing, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell 0.89%to 3253.24 points, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index fell 1.3%to 12266.92 points, and the GEM index fell 1.31%to 2670.45 points. The turnover of the two cities was 1014.4 billion yuan, which was 7 billion from the previous trading day. In terms of northbound funds, it quickly entered the market in the morning, and once bought over 3 billion yuan in net net. Then it continued to flow out all the way, selling 1.719 billion yuan throughout the day. In July, a total of 21 billion yuan was sold in the north direction, which ended in March for a net purchase trend.

Source: Wind

On July 29, the breeding sector opened quickly. On the disk, the breeding ETF (159865) rose nearly 3%for a time, and then maintained a high level of shock, and finally closed up 2.24%.

Source: Wind

On the news, the relevant departments have recently responded to the "Suggestions on the Greeregance and Strong Pig Breeding Industry": improving the protection mechanism of the pig breeding market and strengthening the treatment of livestock and poultry waste. In the next step, we will strengthen the supervision and monitoring of the entire industrial chain of pigs around the production of pig production and pork consumption, scientifically study the situation of the supply and demand of the pork market, compact the production of pig production capacity to regulate the responsibility, stabilize and long -term support policies, guide the scientific arrangement of farm households to arrange production in scientific arrangements for production. Essence

Judging from the recent positions of public offering funds disclosed, the breeding sector as a whole is still in a low state. Due to the surpassing increase in pig prices in the second quarter, the market's difference in the interpretation of a new round of pig cycles increased, so some funds evacuated the agricultural sector. In the second quarter, the total market value of the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing sector funds was 52.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.29%month -on -month; the fund's stock market value accounted for 0.80%of the fund stock investment market value, a decrease of 0.26%month -on -month.

But it is worth noting that after July, market funds are continuing to pay attention to the breeding sector. From the perspective of this week, the breeding ETF (159865) has obtained net purchase for four consecutive days, with a total net purchase of 177 million copies. Throughout July, it has received 524 million net purchase. According to official data, the current breeding supply side may not be thorough, and the total amount may face a decline. Therefore, the supply and demand determines that the price of pigs may fall again in the future, and the industry continues to be de -fixture.

How to see the subsequent space of the pig cycle? In the past three months, the price of pigs has remained rising, and the essence of pig prices is in short supply. From June and July last year to March and April of this year, the sow can still be in the exfoliating stage. According to the 10 -month production fertilization period, this corresponds to May this year to January next year, supply will continue to decline. Considering that January is the peak season for holidays, the price is expected to appear from December to January. At the same time, in May and June of this year, the sow storage column continued to rise, corresponding to the growth of the column in March next year, and the seasonal consumption off -season will be superimposed. The poor supply and demand will begin to shrink. Pig companies are expected to be in a prosperous state for a year.

Table: breeding ETF (159865) purchase situation this week

Data source: wind

Data source: wind

From the perspective of investment, historically, the CSI's animal husbandry index and pig price are high. When pig prices rise, the breeding enterprises are profitable, and the breeding indexes ushered in valuation and performance restoration, and fluctuated upward. In the future, the damage to the industry's cash flow is much higher than that of the past few rounds of pig cycles, which may affect the willingness of subsequent supplementary columns. Interested investors can still consider layout ETF (159865) and ambush pig cycle.

On the afternoon of July 29, the vehicle and automotive electronics sector rose sharply, driving the ETF (516110) and smart cars ETF (159889) to strengthen, and finally closed up 1.37%and 1.95%, respectively.

Source: Wind

On the news, the relevant meeting principles agreed to the "Implementation Plan for the Innovation and Development of Smart Connected Automobiles in Shanghai" and pointed out that as a major town in my country's automotive industry, Shanghai should use the city to build the commanding heights of intelligent connected automobile development.

After the restoration of the re -production and the improvement of fundamentals, the improvement of fundamental expectations brought a sharp rebound, the current automobile industry is still facing positive factors: the supply side has new models on the market, and the demand side has policy support Essence Guosheng Securities believes that the national automobile sales have begun to recover from June this year. Smart cars represented by new energy vehicles in June have increased significantly from the previous month and return to normal levels, which marks that the darkest moment of the automotive industry has passed. As the production and sales of the automotive industry resume normal, the demand in the first half of the year is postponed+new car dense release+database+sales at the end of the year. These factors are expected to make the automotive industry maintain a high prosperity between June and October.

Looking forward to the second half of the year, you can continue to pay attention to the increase in car sales under policy+product power drive. You can also grasp investment opportunities through car ETF (516110), smart car ETF (159889), and new energy vehicle ETF (159806). Because it is basically good, you can continue to pay attention to adjustment.

On July 28, relevant meetings were held to analyze the current economic situation and deploy economic work in the second half of the year. The meeting reiterated that "insisting on dynamic clearance". In terms of expansion, the meeting emphasized: further implementation of active finance (special debt, infrastructure), and monetary policy must maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity. Weaken the policy of promoting consumption, which may not affect the consumer sector emotionally, and the consumer sector has also been adjusted. In terms of real estate, the meeting put forward the "to stabilize the real estate market". It is expected that more detailed rules will be introduced in the future. The key goal of real estate is to keep the property and stabilize the people's livelihood. In terms of platform economy, it will promote the healthy and sustainable development of the platform's economy, complete the special rectification of the platform economy, and implement normalized supervision of the platform economy. Affected by this policy, it contains Hong Kong stock technology recovery of multiple domestic Internet manufacturers.

From a fundamental perspective, the orders of domestic CXO companies are saturated. In the second quarter, the US Biomedical Fund completed a fundraising of US $ 7.011 billion, more than three times the first quarter. The current biomedical index valuation is historically low. In the second quarter, the pharmaceutical and biological industry was further reduced by public funds. Compared with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, the super proportion of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 had fallen to 1.5 percentage points. It was the lowest level since the third quarter of 2009. The market sentiment was too pessimistic.

We also mentioned in "Pharmaceutical: Short -term Care and Optimism, Long -term bottom up", and it is also mentioned that the short -term market of the pharmaceutical sector is cautious and optimistic. On the one hand, the early stage has risen less. On the other hand Medical and medical demand will also be gradually released. But at the same time, we must also be vigilant that if the market adjustment may be adjusted, it may be affected. In the long run, we are more optimistic about investment opportunities in the pharmaceutical sector. The profit data is also good, the valuation is at a historical low, and the long -term logic of population aging and consumption upgrades is still working. Therefore, we think that the current position of the pharmaceutical sector is more suitable for long -term plans. In the future, you can continue to pay attention to related targets such as biomedical ETF (512290), medical ETF (159828), and ETFs (159643) that are being released.

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