12 days 11 boards quoted "key monitoring"!*ST Future Lithium into a Demon to buy assets "lithium content"?

21st Century Economic Herald reporter Dong Peng Cheng Peng Chengdu report

The domestic lithium salt industry has a high degree of capitalization. In addition to the Jiangxi Nanshi lithium battery in Jiangxi, the mainstream lithium salt companies have achieved almost all A -share listing.

In contrast, Ruifu Lithium, located in Shandong, continues to seek the sale of its own company equity.

At the end of July,*ST Future (600532.SH) issued a major asset purchase plan, plans to acquire 70%equity of Shandong Ruifu Lithium and 70%of the equity of Xinjiang Dongli in the way of paying cash. The total transfer price does not exceed 3.85 billion Yuan.

Among them, Shandong Ruifu Lithium industry is a lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide production enterprise, and Xinjiang Dongli is the mining enterprise of lithium ore, which is claimed to be 300,000 tons of annual output.

The mergers and acquisitions look good. The production capacity has production capacity and resources. As long as*ST's future funds can keep up, you can successfully "transform and upgrade" into lithium mining stocks sought after by the market.

"As of June 30, 2022, the balance of the company's monetary funds was approximately 1.29 billion yuan, and the price of the acquisition assets was not more than 3.85 billion yuan. The final price depends on the evaluation report."*ST's future securities department responded.

According to the ratio of 40%of the first phase of equity transfer, listed companies do have a certain ability to pay.

With the expectation of transition to lithium mine stocks,*ST will get capital attention in the future. In the past 12 trading days,*ST has a daily limit in the next 11 days, and even last week, the Stock Exchange stated that "this week," this week's key fluctuations such as*ST's future,*ST African Ren and other abnormal volatile risk warning stocks ... ".

However, the current acquisition still has a certain risk. In addition, the announcement has not made a detailed introduction to Shandong Ruifu and Xinjiang Dongli. What is its industry status, actual operation and resources? Is it worth so in gambling?

Where is the sacred in Ruifu Lithium?

Because the current purchase plan is only disclosed, the information obtained from the announcement is relatively limited.

The announcement shows that the main products of Shandong Ruifu are lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide. At present, it has been completed and operated at an annual output of 25,000 tons of battery -grade lithium carbonate and an annual output of 10,000 tons of battery -level lithium hydroxide production lines.

The above production capacity can be traced back to the company's 1,000 -ton lithium carbonate production line in 2011. The first batch of 5,000 tons of lithium carbonate production line was tried to produce at the end of 2013. 10,000 tons of lithium carbonate and 10,000 tons of lithium hydroxide projects are put into operation.

According to the official website of Ruifu Lithium, the company also plans to produce 40,000 tons of lithium salt production lines in the previous year. After the project is completed, the company's total lithium salt production capacity will reach 75,000 tons.

It is not low to look at the company's production capacity. It is probably in the midstream of the industry. However, the company's operating data is placed in listed companies in the same industry and can only be ranked at the tail.

Data show that in 2021, Ruifu's lithium industry revenue was 1.099 billion yuan, and net profit was 54.03 million yuan.

This scale is probably between Bozhong (002192.SZ), and the latter's income and profits in 2021 ranked second in the countdown of the listed company of the lithium salt industry.

Specific production and sales data and capacity utilization rates have not disclosed, but the comprehensive known income and lithium salt prices can roughly calculate the company's production and sales.

Taking the low-priced industrial-grade lithium carbonate as an example, the Anteko data collected by Wind showed that the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate in 2021 was 116,100 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421,800 yuan/ton from January to May of 2022 was 421,800 yuan.

According to the data estimates of Ruifu Lithium's operating income of 1.099 billion yuan in 2021, and data from January to May 2022, the company's lithium salt sales from January-May 2022 were 9466 tons and 6,404 tons.

However, in the actual sales process, the sales price of Salt Lake and Ganfeng Lithium Industry Correction Companies should be slightly lower than the statistical prices of third -party institutions such as Antoko.

For example, the company's average sales price of lithium salt in 2021 was 94,000 yuan/ton, and the average sales price of Yahua Group and Tibet Mining was around 85,000 yuan/ton. At the same time, the production and sales data of relevant listed companies in the past two years can be seen that the actual sales price of listed companies is about 20 % off than the above -mentioned third -party monitoring price.

According to the standard estimation of the above 20 % discount, the sales volume of Shandong Ruifu in 2021 is 11,832 tons, and the sales volume will be around 8,000 tons from January to May this year.

In summary, the company's past output is about 10,000 tons, and this year's output has increased significantly, but the total output capacity of 35,000 tons is far from the above.

"Shandong Ruifu and other acquisitions cannot be given an exact answer. More detailed content will be disclosed in the draft. At this stage, it is still in the process of diligence and will be disclosed within 6 months." The above -mentioned*ST future person responded.

However, it is unknown whether the above -mentioned detailed production and sales data will be disclosed when the acquisition draft is released.

In response to the production situation of the company, another person who purchased lithium salt from Ruifu Lithium Industry twice said, "The actual output of Ruifu Lithium may be more than 10,000 tons, and this company also processes processed."

He also said that the Ruifu Lithium industry belongs to a family enterprise. The actual controller was the earliest to make sulfate products. Later, due to the market price decline, it was transferred to lithium salt.

Of course, if the feedback of the person is accurate, I believe that*ST can also be found in the process of dedication. The value of Aksas Lithium Mine

*ST's future acquisition is also an important part, that is, the acquisition of 70%of Xinjiang Dongli Company, which directly determines the value of the acquisition target.

The reason is that the domestic lithium salt industry does not lack production capacity, and is lacking in high -quality mineral resources. Only by mastering the mineral resources can the lithium salt factory be achieved below the industry's cost, the profit margin of the industry, and a more stable lithium salt production capacity.

Xinjiang Dongli is a wholly -owned subsidiary of Hetian Ruifu. It is a mining enterprise of lithium ore. Core assets hold the exploration and mining rights of "Xinjiang Aktas Lithium Mine".

Hetian Ruifu and the major shareholders of Ruifu lithium industry are all natural people, and there is a relationship between the two.

Since the acquisition pricing is not finalized, considering the current situation of "resources as king",*ST's 70%equity pricing of Xinjiang Dongli in the future may also be higher than Shandong Ruifu.

For the above -mentioned lithium ore resources, the introduction of*ST is also very short in the future. In 19.76 (including 1 year in infrastructure), the mines can be exposed to open -air, and underground mining is underground and other ore bodies, with an annual output of 300,000 tons. "

The more core lithium oxide content, ore taste and other data, the listed company has not disclosed it.

However, according to the Xinjiang Geological Survey Institute of Geological Survey in April 2016, the "Xinjiang Hetian County Aktas Lithium Mine Exploration Report" and other information shows that the mining area is 5.866 million tons, which is consistent with the data of*ST's future disclosure.

At the same time, the amount of lithium oxide was 85,700 tons, and the average quality of the LI2O of the mine was 1.48%. These two data are important indicators to measure the value of lithium ore reserves and development value.

"The conversion coefficient of lithium lithium oxide and lithium carbonate is more than 210,000 tons of lithium carbonate with more than 210,000 tons of lithium carbonate." A person who has worked in domestic lithium ore companies introduced, but the actual operation process Among them, the problem of lithium receipts should also be considered. It is not possible to use all ores to be used. Among them, some discounts need to be discounted.

Public information shows that the 134 mine vein of the Aklika mine under Rongjie Co., Ltd., with a mining lithium of about 65%, and the procurement rate of the Western Australian mine is between 50%and 75%.

This means that if all Aksus lithium mines are mined, it can only produce more than 100,000 tons of lithium carbonate, and the entire mining cycle will take nearly 20 years, and it can only meet thousands of tons of lithium salt production raw materials each year. Essence

"The ore product is okay in China, but the reserves are too small."

He also said, "Xinjiang has no big good mines, and basically it has been completed."

It should be pointed out that the local lithium ore resources in Xinjiang are relatively abundant, but there are the characteristics of small reserves, low quality, and wide distribution. Close the pit.

According to the announcement of Metropolitan Energy in early 2018, "Ruifu Lithium Industry's current lithium ore raw materials rely on imports to a large extent."

At the same time, the large raw material procurement agreement disclosed at the same time shows that from April 2016 to the end of 2017, Ruifu Lithium Industry signed 90,000 tons and 10,000 tons of lithium concentrates from GMM and Jiangxi GFLY company, and purchased lithium raw ore 240 from WLPL Company 240 Thousands of tons and other agreements.

By July 2019, Ruifu Lithium has signed a contract sales agreement with Australian miner Altura again. From July 2019 to June 2024, Altura will supply Ruifu Lithium Industry for lithium concentrate 35,000 tons per year.

To sum up, although*ST's future acquisition target has lithium ore resources, even if it can stabilize 300,000 tons of raw ore each year, it cannot meet the raw material demand of Ruifu Lithium. The greater the company's production capacity, the more difficult it is to guarantee the self -sufficient raw material.

Three -degree industry high "shot"

It is worth noting that the largest shareholders of Ruifu Lithium and Xinjiang Dongli are natural people, but their holdings are held by Wang Mingyue, and the latter's attitude of lithium industry assets is very resolute.

On July 26, 2016,*ST Jiangquan (renamed "Green Energy Huichong") released a restructuring plan, and plans to set up rail transportation and thermoelectric assets worth 400 million yuan. Equity, raised no more than 822 million yuan of supporting funds at the same time.

However, in the end, the transaction failed to do it.*ST Jiangquan terminated the transaction on the grounds that "the domestic securities market environment and regulatory policies such as regulatory policies have undergone major changes".

On October 28, 2017, another listed company Meidu Energy (retired) announced that he signed the "Framework Agreement on the acquisition of Shandong Ruifu Lithium Industry Co., Ltd." with the shareholders of Ruifu Lithium. The industry's 98.51%equity, the trading consideration does not exceed 3.596 billion yuan.

Later, under the continuous inquiry of the exchange, the transaction finally fell to 2.9 billion yuan.

In March 2019, Meidu Energy announced that it terminated the acquisition of the equity of Shandong Ruifu Lithium Co., Ltd., and was repurchased by the Ruifu Lithium Industry Management Team to repurchase its 56.18 % equity. The remaining shareholding of Meidu Energy also planned to be completely clear.

In this regard, Midu Energy once pointed out to the 21st Century Business Herald that "mainly because the other party did not complete the performance of 2018's performance, we also estimate that the price of lithium carbonate will not have a lot of room for rise this year. The loss of listed companies is relatively small. "The nodes of the two transactions above are very good, especially the second time, just at the top of the price of lithium salt.

When the US Metropolitan Energy was announced, the price of lithium carbonate in the domestic battery -level was 167,500 yuan/ton, which was only 500 yuan per ton from the apex of the previous cycle.

Interestingly, after the US -Metropolitan energy returned to the shares, from 2019 to 2021, the industry's prosperity rose first and then increased.

Until the second quarter of this year, the battery -level lithium carbonate reached a high of 520,000 yuan/ton, and the sideways stopped. At the same time, after the industry's expected expected supply and demand next year began to shake, the shareholders of the Ruifu Lithium industry once again chose to sell it to*ST's future sale. Equity.

The benefits of doing this are also obvious, the market is good, and the asset premium is high.

Of course, the current acquisition price has not been determined. According to the caliber of*ST's future reply, it is necessary to wait for the diligence and asset evaluation results.

In the future, choosing acquisitions is also an inevitable choice, because the company's existing business is difficult to support a long -term development of a listed company. Among them, the coal trade business, which is considered by the company to be "not low", revenue of 635 million yuan in 2021, and the gross profit margin increased by 1.93 percentage points to 3.82%year -on -year. of.

Under the above background, the company's choice of lithium industry assets with current cash flow, profit margins and secondary market attention becomes logical.

However, some of the potential risk factors acquired above need to pay attention to.

The first is capital investment. If the price of this transaction can be talked about,*ST's nearly 1.3 billion yuan of funds in the future can cover the first phase of 40%of the equity transfer model, but the Ruifu lithium industry will still face many funds due to the expansion of production capacity expansion in the future, and still face many funds. Investment.

On July 21, Yiwei Lithium was announced that it was planned to set up a joint venture with Zijin Lithium and Ruifu Lithium Industry in Hunan Province to invest in the construction of 90,000 tons of lithium salt projects in installments. The total investment scale of the project is expected to be 3 billion yuan.

Followed by the risk of fluctuations in lithium salt products. This product is different from other commodities. The current market development is not mature enough. The spot market lacks unified authoritative offers. The futures have not yet been launched.

On the other hand, the lithium industry in Ruifu is difficult to spend than those with high self -sufficiency and self -sufficient rate of self -sufficiency. The current price of lithium salt is high, and everyone can achieve profitability.

However, once the price of lithium salt fell in the future, such companies will also face certain operating pressure.

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