Lao Zheng Speaking ｜ US dollar rebound attention to non -agricultural data

This week, the US dollar has rebounded. The important reason is that several Federal Reserve members have made remarks to support interest rate hikes. Although such remarks are beneficial to the US dollar, they may not have a strong support, because the interest rate hike itself is almost a positive event. It is still a subsequent U.S. economic indicator that can really control the US dollar, and the US non -agricultural employment data announced on Friday is undoubtedly an important indicator.

Federal Reserve member tough

After the US dollar fell slightly this Monday, it launched a significant rebound on Tuesday, and it fell on Wednesday. The overall increase of some increases this week seems to be curbed for two consecutive weeks.

Although the GDP data released last week that the US economy has fallen into a technical decline, the Federal Reserve cannot release weak remarks due to inflation.

On Tuesday, several Federal Reserve officials made a word of eagle, and investors re -evaluated the possibility of the Fed to reverse radical interest rate hikes. This is also the main reason for the US dollar to rise significantly this Tuesday.

Dali, the Fed Chairman of San Francisco, said that the Federal Reserve is "far -finished" in raising interest rates to flatter inflation.

Chicago Fed Chairman Evans said that before seeing US inflation, the Fed will not release the brakes. It is expected that the Fed will raise interest rates at least 50 basis points at the September meeting, but the pace of interest rate hikes at the end of the year may slow down.

Cleveland Federal Reserve Chairman Mest pointed out that inflation has not been treated, and it must further increase interest rates. He hopes to see "very convincing evidence" proves that the monthly price increase is slowing down, and then it is announced that the central bank has successfully curbed inflation.

In short, the wind of all population above appears tough, at most the degree of toughness is small.

The Federal Reserve members' remarks are of course important references. Investors cannot ignore, but it is important to have follow -up economic indicators verification. If this aspect is not strong, these members will also change.

Focus on non -agricultural employment data

Recently, the US economic data is actually half a good or bad, and it is not even stronger to support the Federal Reserve. Regardless of the GDP data that has been confirmed before, the data released this week is not so good.

The US manufacturing PMI index announced this week is slightly less than expected, and the construction expenditure is significantly less than expected. However, some US service industry data released this week is good. The growth of the US service industry in July has unexpectedly strengthened to a three -month high.

Some investment banking views in Wall Street may be closer to economic reality. Many Wall Street Banks, including Blackstone Group, one of the world's largest private equity funds in the world, are now suspecting that the Fed will turn into interest rates in 2023.

Blackstone Group recently stated that the Fed's over -tightening policy will cause serious damage to economic growth. Subsequently, it will have to shift from a tightening monetary policy, and start to cut interest rates in 2023.

The next heavy data is undoubtedly the US non -agricultural employment data announced on Friday this Friday. This data is very important, which will significantly affect the Fed's willingness to raise interest rates in September.

From the perspective of the US dollar trend, the overall favorable pattern should be presented. After all, the US debt yield is relatively high in the main currency, which makes the basic disk of the US dollar's bulls stable. From the perspective of inflation, no matter how much the Fed will continue to raise interest rates.

The higher interest rate is the main reason why the US dollar index is located near the highest point in the last two decades. The actual yield of 10 -year Treasury bonds in the United States is recently close to the positive value, and it often runs above the positive value. But this is still not the same as the normalized "substantial interest rate" situation of last year and this year, so the attraction of the US dollar has increased greatly.

Daily Economic News

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