The industry is expected to maintain a strong medium- and long -term loans or significant growth in July in July

Author:Securities daily Time:2022.08.05

Financial data was released in July. After the increase in the scale of new credit and social integration in June, the data performance in July was highly expected. In this regard, a reporter from the Securities Daily interviewed a number of analysts to predict, and many institutions also gave forward -looking data.

Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Everbright Bank Financial Market Department, predicts that in an interview with the Securities Daily reporter that the new credit will remain strong in July, with a scale of 1.4 trillion yuan to 1.6 trillion yuan.

"Since the second quarter, a series of incremental policies have been introduced densely in China to drive the demand for credit demand for real economy. At the same time, the credit structure has been further optimized, the residents' short -term consumer loans are recovered, and the demand for short -term consumer loans of residents has recovered." Zhou Maohua said that from the perspective of the enterprise, With the recovery of demand, the support for the help of enterprises, stable growth policies, and financial institutions have increased support for the real economy, and enterprises will increase significantly for medium and long -term loans.

The Guotai Junan Research News predicts that the number of new credit in July was about 1.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 3. trillion yuan year -on -year. The total number of structures will gradually improve. Essence

In terms of social finance, Li Chao, chief economist of Zhejiang Business Securities, predicts that social finance will increase by 1.2 trillion yuan in July. In the structure, the year -on -year increase mainly comes from government bonds. Trust loans, unspoken notes or less decreases. Credit is expected to be basically the same as last year. Corporate bonds are dragging on it or affected by the risk incidents of the real estate department.

CICC's research report predicts that new social finances will be 1.3 trillion yuan in July, and the year -on -year growth rate of social finance is expected to rise to 11.0%.

Zhang Yu, the chief macro analyst of Huachen Securities, predicts that in July, the new social financing was approximately 1.13 trillion yuan, and the growth rate of social finances was expected to be around 10.9%. Aimed at physical loans, it is expected to increase 1.08 trillion yuan, an increase of 240 billion yuan over the same period last year. In addition, the M2 is expected to rise further in July to about 11.8%year -on -year, and M1 is expected to be about 6.2%year -on -year.

It is worth mentioning that the central bank has recently deployed key tasks in the second half of the year, and "maintaining the smooth and moderate growth of monetary credit" is ranked first. In this context, Zhou Maohua believes that in the second half of the year, credit, real estate industry, small and medium -sized enterprises, key infrastructure projects, etc., are expected to increase significantly.

Liang Si, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, said in an interview with the "Securities Daily" reporter that under the setting of "maintaining the stable and moderate growth of currency credit", the central bank mentioned the "policy development financial instrument for a good policy, Focus on supporting the construction of infrastructure fields, "which means that we must give full play to the important role of policy credit in fund investment, continue to tap high -quality projects, and drive more effective investment. At the same time, "strengthening financial support for small and micro enterprises such as private small and micro enterprises" means that support for weak economic and weak economic links such as inclusive small and micro will continue to maintain a high level.

(Editor in charge: Wang Chenxi)

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