50 basis points!The British Central Bank's interest rate hike hit the largest record of 27 years

Reporter Liu Qi

Lear reporter Han Yu

On August 4th, Beijing time, the Bank of England announced a rate hike of 50 basis points, which hit the largest record in 1995. Since December 2021, the Bank of England has raised interest rates six times, raising policy interest rates from 0.1%to 1.75%. The current 1.75%policy interest rate has also reached the highest value since December 2008.

The Bank of England also plans to reduce its holding of a large number of previously accumulated national bonds. If the plan passed the plan in September, the Bank of England will sell about 10 billion pounds of government bonds every quarter.

The Bank of England said that the interest rate hike was mainly to control the increasingly serious inflation situation in the UK. The British CPI increased by 9.4%year -on -year, while the Bank of England estimated that the inflation prospects would be even more pessimistic. It is expected that the inflation rate will rise to about 13%in the fourth quarter when the energy cost continues to rise, and it will continue to be high in 2023.

Since April, the British CPI has broken "9" for three months year -on -year. In June, it rose 9.4%year -on -year, reaching the highest level in 40 years. The soaring energy cost is an important reason for the rapid rise in CPI. In June, the price of British gasoline increased by 42%year -on -year. Other energy items such as electricity and gas costs also continued to rise. The overall increase in energy items contributed as high as 47%.

British President Andrew Bailey said that the high energy price may further affect the lives of British residents in this winter, especially the lives of low -income families. He is worried that this will further make the inflation problem "deeply ingrained". If inflation does not show signs of relief, he will still insist on raising interest rates to make the inflation rate return to 2%of the goal.

At the same time as the inflation is high, the recent economic data of Britain is not optimistic. In July, the British manufacturing PMI fell to 52.1, a new low of 25 months, and the final value of the service industry PMI also dropped to 52.6. The PMI report in July showed that under the pressure of inflation, the British manufacturing and service industry activities were large The influence, the number of orders and service demand continues to weaken.

It is worth noting that in the monetary policy report released by the Bank of England on August 4, the UK may enter the economic recession in the fourth quarter, and the decline will be up to five quarters. High energy prices will drag the income growth of British residents, the prospects of consumption and economic activities may further deteriorate, and the growth of British GDP will continue to slow down.

Donghai Securities believes that the rise in energy prices brought about by international geopolitical conflicts has superimposed the issue of Britain's "Brexit" to exacerbate trade barriers and labor shortages. British families have decreased in disposable income, increasing production costs for enterprises, high inflation and decline at the same time impact the British economy.

After the resolution of the interest rate hike falling, the pound fell short -term against the US dollar, but then the decline narrowed. Wind data shows that as of 4:25 am on August 5th local time, the GBP's exchange rate on the US dollar fell 0.12%within the day of the US dollar to 1.21450.

- END -