The "second half" stable growth policy is densely introduced to expand investment to promote consumption is still the highlight

Our reporter Bao Xing'an Liu Meng

Recently, relevant departments and localities have held the annual conferences, symposiums, and economic work promotion meetings. Judging from the signal released by the meeting, it is still highlighting to promote the release of various policy effects in stable growth. In the second half to expand effective investment and promote the recovery of consumption in key areas, it is still the highlight.

Dongfang Jincheng chief macro analyst Wang Qing told the Securities Daily that the macro policy in the second half of the year will maintain a higher continuity in the direction of steady growth. After experiencing the impact of super -expected factors such as the epidemic, the current economy has been transferred to the repair process, but it still faces problems such as slow consumption repair. The foundation of economic restoration is still unstable, and macro policies need to make up for social needs. It can be seen that following the full efforts of the second quarter, expanding effective investment and promoting consumption will continue to become the main policy of stabilizing the economy in the second half of the year.

Concentration of major projects starts

Recently, the relevant departments meeting will expand effective investment as an important starting point for the economy.

On August 4, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held an analysis symposium on the operation analysis analysis analysis of the petrochemical industry in the first half of 2022, requiring to strengthen effective investment, accelerate the construction of major petrochemical projects, comprehensive technical reform of old devices, and form physical workload and development benefits as soon as possible ; On August 4th, Shaanxi Province held the province's stable growth and stability of employment and stable prices to promote the increasing income and revenue. Focus on the third quarter of the decisive battle, laying a solid foundation for the completion of the annual goals and tasks. Earlier, on August 1, the National Development and Reform Commission held a notice of development and reform in the first half of the year, saying that it would promote the release of various policy effects to promote the stable growth, give full play to the key role of investment, and earnestly increase their efforts to do a good job of the project's preliminary work.

Guo Yiming, Director of the Investment Consultant of Jufeng Investment Consulting, told the Securities Daily that infrastructure investment is still an effective measure to boost the economy. Accelerating the construction of major projects reflects the effectiveness and accuracy of investment in investment, and ensure high -quality development while stabilizing the economy.

The reporter noticed that in August, a number of major projects were concentrated in many places. On August 2nd, 48 projects started in Fangchenggang City, Guangxi, with a total investment of 41.8 billion yuan, mainly involving many fields such as new energy, green manufacturing, infrastructure, cold chain logistics, and medical education. On August 3, Ganzhou City, Jiangxi started 242 major projects, with a total investment of 160.9 billion yuan, covering industrial upgrading, infrastructure, public services, ecological and environmental protection and other fields. On August 3, Jianhe County, Guizhou, started 12 major projects, with a total investment of 1.27 billion yuan.

"The scale of investment in major projects can effectively promote the expansion of the total amount of investment in the investment. "Wang Qing said.

Wang Qing believes that under the common effect of policy effort and the lower base of the previous year, it is expected that the cumulative infrastructure investment (excluding power) in the first seven months of this year is expected to reach about 7.8%year -on -year Two months accelerate. This also means that a single month infrastructure investment in July will achieve a high growth of about 12%year -on -year. In the second half of the year, infrastructure investment may maintain a high increase in double digits.

In order to expand effective investment, related plans have been introduced in many places recently. For example, on August 1, the Hubei Provincial Government issued the "Several Opinions on Further Accelerating the Construction of Major Projects and Expanding Effective Investment", focusing on eight aspects such as transportation and logistics, water conservancy, basin comprehensive governance, digital economy, and urban infrastructure. , Determine the total investment of 780 billion yuan this year; on August 2, the Office of the Leading Group for the Promotional Leading Group for the Construction of Guangxi's major projects issued the "Third Batch of Autonomous Region Levels to Promote Major Project Plan in 2022". Seize the three quarters of Danan and go all out to hold the economic market. And determined a total of 507 major projects, with a total investment of 792.63 billion yuan.

Wang Qing said that localities are seizing the economic repair window period in the third quarter, focusing on promoting economic rebounds, and striving to make up for the gap in the second quarter. Among them, compared with the promotion of consumption and exports, local governments have more controlled control in expanding effective investment, especially in infrastructure investment, and are becoming the main policy point.

Guo Yiming believes that in the second half of the year, investing in stable in the second half of the year must continue to promote infrastructure construction, especially new infrastructure, it is recommended to consider adding special bonds to expand fiscal expenditure capabilities and increase infrastructure investment.

Accelerate the release of consumption potential

In addition to the continuous increase in stable investment, promoting accelerated recovery of consumption in key areas is also one of the policies.

On August 3, Hebei Province held a provincial economic work promotion conference to carry out a variety of consumer activities to accelerate the release of consumption potential; on August 1, the Fujian Provincial Development and Reform Commission held a notice of development and reform in the first half of 2022, saying that Promote the accelerated recovery of consumption in key areas, implement the implementation of relevant consumption policies and measures that have been introduced, further expand consumption such as automobiles and home appliances, and actively develop new consumption formats.

In fact, since this year, relevant departments and localities have introduced a series of measures to promote consumption, such as the issuance of consumer coupons, consumption subsidies, and reduction of vehicle purchase taxes, etc., in all aspects of various fields to stimulate consumer potential. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of this year, the total retail sales of social consumer goods were 21043.2 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 0.7%. Among them, in June, a year -on -year increase of 3.1%, and the growth rate achieved negative to positive. "Driven by the promotion of consumer policy, the recent speed of consumption rebound exceeds market expectations. Taking car -related consumption as an example, the retail sales of car and petroleum products in June increased by 13.9%and 14.7%, respectively." CITIC Securities Chief Economist In an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily, it was said that the offline scenes and the performance of downstream consumer goods in real estate were weak, such as clothing and building decoration materials. In addition, in the context of economic growth and the slowdown of residential income growth, the consumption may face the problem of insufficient stamina after the consumption rebound.

The reporter noticed that recently, consumer measures may be introduced in many places. On August 4, the Tianjin Development and Reform Commission issued the "Several Measures on Promoting Consumption Restoration and Promotion" (draft for the promotion of consumption recovery and boosting). Housing home consumption. In addition, recently, a new round of consumer coupons have been issued in many places, covering various types such as cars, hotels, catering, and tourism.

When it comes to the promotion of consumption efforts for some time in the future, Zhang Yiqun, deputy chairman of the Performance Management Committee of the Chinese Society of Finance, told the reporter of the Securities Daily that the promotion of consumption should "catch both hands", grasp the traditional consumption of clothing, food, housing, and other traditional consumption. , Consumption of consumption such as cars, smartphones and other consumption, stabilize consumption stocks; on the other hand, we must grasp new consumption such as medical beauty, fitness, entertainment, etc., focusing on improving the quality of life of residents, promoting traditional consumption transformation and upgrading and new consumption cultivation, expanding consumption increase quantity.

"In the third quarter, consumer -related indicators will maintain an upward trend. From a structural point of view, the fields of policy support may be outstanding, and other areas may be reflected as gradual repair." Obviously prediction.

Zhang Yiqun said that the housing demand represented by the demand and improvement needs will increase significantly under the promotion of many favorable policies; green and low -carbon consumption focusing on new energy vehicles will be favored by more people; in addition, health and medical care Consumption such as tourism and entertainment will grow rapidly with technological progress and new product development.

Obviously suggested that we will continue to combine the direction of green development to implement the stimulus policy for large -piece green consumer goods such as automobiles, home appliances; introduce policy support and subsidies to encounter difficult consumer groups and service companies; actively develop digital consumption, accelerate online and offline consumption integration integration Essence

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