Pig prices have risen "pig cycles" and then hot discussions, experts said that the price amplitude in the future will narrow

Reporter Gui Xiaoshu

Since the price of live pigs, the push of the far -sale and the decreased of the pig source in the breeding side, the proper amount of the pig source, and other comprehensive factors, the pig prices have risen sharply in July. As of August 7, a number of pig farmers, including Dabongnong, Jinxinnong, and Muyuan shares, released a sales briefing in July. It can be seen from the data that the price of pigs in July increased a large increase in the month -on -month.

Taking Muyuan as an example, the company's commercial pig price in July this year was 21.33 yuan/kg, and in June only 16.53 yuan/kg. The announcement of Dongrui also shows that the price of commercial pigs was 27.71 yuan/kg in July this year, and in June was 20.6 yuan/kg.

The rise in prices has caused breeding companies to change the previous performance. However, analysts interviewed by the Securities Daily reporter introduced that it is not easy for the high prosperity in July to continue. Breeding companies still face the performance pressure brought by both ends of supply and demand in August. In addition, after experiencing the previous round of "pig cycle", the new round of "pig cycle" characteristics have changed. To obtain constant profits, breeding companies still have to be from breeding, research and development, and increasing feed conversion rates. Hold on the angle.

Each round of "pig cycle" is different

From the perspective of the overall development of the industry, after experiencing the "pig cycle" in the previous round, the production of the breeding industry has changed.

Zhu Zengyong, chief analyst of the entire industrial chain monitoring and early warning of the pork industry chain of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, told reporters of the Securities Daily that the difference between this round of cycle and the previous cycle is that the price of pig prices has increased in the short term at the beginning of the new cycle, rather than the past like the past The pig cycle is the same, and a small cycle is first experienced at the beginning. The early rise in pig prices will also be ironed in the later period of pig prices. Since May, the surviving column of the sow can gradually rise, which means that the later supply will be relatively stable and there will be no more fluctuations in the previous cycle. At the same time, the rising production cost of this round of cycle means that the profit and loss point of the price of pig prices will be moved up.

After the previous "pig cycle", leading breeding companies accelerated the expansion, and the concentration of breeding and production was significantly improved.

In this regard, Zhu Zengyong believes that this means that the stability of the future industry will be improved, and on the premise of the impact of major animal epidemic, the stability of supply and pig prices will be improved during the cycle. The "Implementation Plan (Interim)" issued by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs proposes the core regulation indicator of "the change rate of the amount of sows". At the same time, refine the "three grasping and two guarantees" (grasping the provinces of production and sales, breeding counties, and breeding fields, and the bottom line of the number of sows in the stream of sows, and the bottom line of the number of pig farms) is conducive to the internal and industrial regulatory policies of the industry. With both hands, it is more accurately monitoring and regulating the capacity of pigs, ensuring supply and stability of pig prices, and ensuring that pig prices fluctuate within a reasonable range.

However, pig prices fluctuate within a reasonable range, which does not mean that all practitioners can obtain constant profits.

"On the one hand, it depends on whether the price of pigs fluctuates narrowly, and on the other hand, it depends on whether the enterprise achieves scale efficiency. If the scale is not economical, the enterprise will also face a large market risk. Therefore At the same time, it is appropriate to improve the enterprise industry chain. "Zhu Zengyong suggested that at present, the enterprise should use three perspectives to improve quality and efficiency: by strengthening the selection of pig breeding, the PSY level is improved (referring to the weaned piglets that can be provided by the sow each year, The number, this is an important indicator of the benefits of pig farms and sow breeding, the editor's note), to cultivate product pig varieties with high production efficiency; strengthen the research and development of nutritional technology, improve feed conversion rate, especially protein efficiency; Use local rich protein resources to promote high -quality and low protein diets.

In August, pig prices maintained a high pressure on deposit storage

Although the characteristics of the "pig cycle" changed and the price of pigs entered the upward cycle, there were many pressures to maintain a high level in August.

Zhuochuang Information Report shows that many factors in August may lead to the decline in pig prices: From the perspective of supply, the completion rate of the pig -out column of key breeding companies in July this year is less than 96% Completed in August. Through market research, 131 key enterprises planned to produce a total of 6.88%from the previous month. At the same time, in October 2021, a sow -streaming bar increased by 0.18%month -on -month, indirectly showing that the amount of pigs theory in August increased slightly. Furthermore, the source of the pigs from May to June may accelerate the column in August. In addition, from the perspective of demand, the temperature in August was still high, and the demand for pork in the terminal market was relatively light.

In the context of the pressure between the supply of both parties, it is more difficult to continue the current high price in August.

In an interview with the Securities Daily, Sun Weijie, a senior analyst of Zhuochuang Information, said that from the perspective of the pig cycle, the current operation and profits of the breeding industry gradually climbed from the bottom, but there are still some artificial interference factors in the industry to pay attention to. In April and May of this year, because the market was optimistic about the market in the second half of the year, the bid pigs who should have flowed into the market were purchased back to the aquaculture end for secondary fertilizer. This is not good for the production of the subsequent market. Judging from the current observations, the future of artificial intervention, pressure fences, and secondary fertilizers may still occur.

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