Who made the money of new energy vehicles?

"China Economic Weekly" reporter Lu Jiangtao | Beijing report

Many truths are often spoken in a joke.

Recently, at the 2022 World Power Battery Conference, Zeng Qinghong, chairman of GAC Group, said with a smile: "The cost of power batteries has accounted for 40 %, 50 %, and 60 % of our cars, and it is increasing. ? "

Although it is a joke, this is not just a joke. The semi -annual report shows that in the first half of this year, whether it is the new forces such as "Wei Xiaoli", or traditional car companies such as BAIC Langu, JAC, and well -off. BYD, who is global to sell global championships in half a year, is only in a micro -profit state, and its profit margin is far less than Tesla.

In this regard, Ningde Times was also "shouting injustice", thinking that he was just struggling with a slightly profitable edge, and pointed his finger at the price of battery raw materials. At the same time, the speech of Zeng Yuqun, the chairman of Ningde Times, pushed the power battery to the front desk again.

"Ning Wang" is hard to escape the fate of working upstream

In the power battery supply chain, there are often upstream and downstream. The upstream raw material suppliers represented by Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium Industry, the midstream battery manufacturers represented by Ningde Times and China Innovation Airlines, and many auto companies are used as downstream contractors.

At the 2022 World Power Battery Conference held from July 21st to 23rd, Zeng Qinghong's speech was pointing at the price of power batteries in the midstream. New energy vehicle manufacturers (basic) except Tesla were losing money. Car companies are working on Ningde Times.

In addition to Zeng Qinghong, Li Shufu, chairman of Geely Holdings, and Zhu Huarong, chairman of Changan Automobile, also stated that in order to speak for the healthy and sustainable development of the entire industrial chain, it is necessary to strengthen supervision, improve the imbalance of supply and demand, and allow the price of power batteries to price the price of power batteries. Return to a reasonable range.

Unwilling to work for "King Ning", the automotive company's self -built power battery production line has gradually become a trend.

"China Economic Weekly" reporter recently learned from the new energy vehicle company under GAC Group that GAC Ean's self -developed power battery test line has been opened. 70%of the low -end batteries will be founded by external battery companies.

"In order to (let) buy a cheaper car to ensure that the safety and stability of the battery supply chain is an important foundation for the healthy development of the automotive industry." Zeng Qinghong said that the battery company passed the cost pressure to the OEM, and the OEM must also be Battery and buying raw materials.

Li Shufu also stated at the meeting that Geely Holding Group, through its joint venture, self -developed self -developed self -employment and other methods, surrounded the fields of battery technology innovation, battery materials, charging and replacement operations, photovoltaic green power, recycling and other fields, and collaborated with the upstream and downstream industrial chain of the battery. Development has formed an ecological layout.

The complaints about downstream car companies also felt "grievances" in Ningde era.

Zeng Yuqun said: "The capital speculation of upstream raw materials has brought short -term distress to the power battery industry chain. Lithium carbonate, lithium hexovative lithium, and petroleum coke upstream materials have skyrocketed."

Since then, Wu Kai, chief scientist in Ningde Times, also said in his speech that we usually face customer complaints, saying that the vehicle manufacturer is not very profitable. Did your battery factory take away the profits? Although our company has not lost money this year, it is basically struggling on the edge of a little profitable, which is very painful. Wherever the profit goes, everyone can also imagine.

Factors such as upstream raw materials increase price and supply and demand mismatch have devoured the profits of midstream battery companies, which can be seen from the first quarter report of the Ningde Times in 2022. In the first quarter of this year, the operating cost of Ningde Times increased by 198.66%year -on -year, exceeding 44 percentage points of operating income, and a gross profit margin of only 14.48%, a new low in two years, and the decline in gross profit margin was mainly due to the pressure of raw materials.

According to business data, in the first half of this year, the price of battery -level lithium salt products was at a historical high. On July 21, the average price of battery -grade lithium carbonate in East China reached 47,8600 yuan/ton.

In this context, lithium salt manufacturers generally make a lot of money. A few days ago, Ganfeng Lithium announced that it was expected to be 7.2 billion yuan to 9 billion yuan in the first half of 2022, a year -on -year increase of 408.24%to 535.30%. The semi -annual performance trailer released by Tianqi Lithium shows that the net profit of shareholders attributable to listed companies in the first half of 2022 is 9.6 billion yuan to 11.6 billion yuan, an increase of 110 to 134 times year -on -year.

"Lithium King" is not afraid of the power battery recycling "grab the rice bowl"

Faced with the crazy price increase of upstream raw materials, in addition to the global buying of mines to control the upstream of the industrial chain, battery companies have also become one of the options.

In this regard, Zeng Yuqun said that the price increase of upstream raw materials will cause short -term disturbances to the industrial chain, but in fact, lithium resources are not the bottleneck of industrial development. The currently proven lithium resource reserves can produce 160TWH lithium batteries, which fully meets the global demand for power batteries and energy storage batteries. Most of the materials of the battery can be reused. At present, the company's nickel -cobalt manganese recovery rate has reached 99.3%, and the recovery rate of lithium is more than 90%. After 2035, the use of materials in retired batteries can meet a large part of market demand.

This remark also pushed the power battery to the front desk again.

GGII data shows that in 2021, the national lithium battery theory reached 512,000 tons. In the same year, the actual recycling of waste lithium batteries in China was 299,000 tons, of which the battery used for regeneration was 258,000 tons. 10,000 tons, further reduced the cost of use of the full life cycle of the lithium battery. According to the research report of Guangfa Securities, in recent years, with the gradual entry of power battery recycling policies, the number of participating companies has grown rapidly, and many listed companies have accelerated production. The power battery market has a rapid volume. In 2030, the scale of lithium battery recycling was 108.9 billion yuan in neutral forecast.

Data tracked by Soochow Securities show that as the prices of nickel and cobalt have fallen in recent times, lithium prices have remained stable, and the procurement coefficient of waste batteries has risen significantly, and its profit has remained stable, which is higher than the average value of 2021.

In this context, listed companies such as Ningde, BYD, and Huayou Cobalt have begun to deploy the power battery recycling industry.

Among them, Ningde Times laid out the battery recycling business through the acquisition of Bangpu's cycle in 2015. At the same time, the Bangpu Integrated New Energy Industry Project, which has invested 32 billion yuan, has officially started construction in early December 2021. The main purpose is to force the power battery recycling industry.

Under the catalysis of "favorable", A -shares have long been deeply linked to the stock price of the power battery recycling business, and the lithium mine giants such as Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium have fallen.

Facing the aggressive "Ning King", the "lithium king" couldn't sit still.

On July 22, when the Ganfeng Lithium Industry replied to investors on the interactive platform, the company is currently one of the leading enterprises of the lithium battery recycling industry, with 34,000 tons of comprehensive waste battery recycling capacity, lithium nickel and cobalt recycling, and the recovery rate of metals such as lithium nickel and cobalt. It has reached the first -class industry. According to third -party data estimates, it is predicted that the recycling of lithium recycling in 2022 will only account for 4%to 5%of the industry's forecast of lithium supply. Therefore, the company believes that it is difficult to fully meet the rapid development of lithium demand in the industry alone. The company will continue to lay out a diversified lithium resource layout and cooperate with the lithium battery recycling layout as the development strategy to meet the rapid growth of lithium growth in downstream.

Tianqi Lithium Industry is even more blunt that lithium recycling in lithium batteries is theory, but it does not reach large -scale recycling and reuse in commercial applications. Regarding the statement of Zeng Yuqun's lithium reaching more than 90%, relevant persons of Tianqi Lithium Investment Management Department told the media: "The laboratory should be able to do it, but I have not seen it in business."

In this regard, Ningde Times returned again. Regarding this, "Please go to our Bangpu to see that they can't do it."

The recycling of power battery recycling by Ningde Times is a future trend, but it is difficult to meet the needs of battery companies in lithium in the short term. Because the recycling speed of power batteries cannot keep up with the speed of manufacturing new batteries, the market is still mainly based on new production batteries in the short term.

(This article published in "China Economic Weekly", No. 14, 2022)

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