Bi Mingxin: Domestic oil prices may be fulfilled in "four consecutive declines" docking.

Zhongxin Jingwei, August 8th: Domestic oil prices may be fulfilled in the "Four Company Falls" docking.

Author Bi Mingxin Jinlian Ginoco Oil Analysts

Recently, the trend of international crude oil is "first raised and then suppressed", and the OPEC+(petroleum exporter and its oil -producing allies) output policy conference that investors are more concerned about. The output of multiple countries has increased from the previous month. In addition, in the context of sluggish global demand, factories in the United States, Europe, and Asia have difficulty obtaining kinetic energy in July, exacerbating people's concerns about the decline of the economy, and the impact of the Fed's interest rate hike on the market.

According to the calculation of Jinlianchuang, as of the ninth working day of August 8th, the average price of reference to crude oil was $ 99.38/barrel, and the change rate was -1.64%. The corresponding domestic gasoline and diesel retail price should be reduced by 110 yuan/ton. The retail price of this round will be fulfilled in "Four Companys", and the reduction of gasoline and diesel is about 150 yuan/ton.

In terms of the domestic wholesale market, the international crude oil has recently maintained a trend, and the negative range of changes has extended. From the perspective of supply, due to the influence of policies, local refineries have not enthusiasm for work, and the operating rate has declined. The main operating rate of the refineries may maintain narrow fluctuations. On the whole, the resource supply has decreased. From the perspective of demand, the increase in provinces in the summer of summer, the superposition of high -temperature weather, the frequency of vehicle air conditioners increased, and accelerated the consumption cycle of gasoline. With the end of the fishing period of some sea areas, the demand for diesel has been well expected. However, due to the frequent summer rainfall, the operating rate of oil companies such as infrastructure, industrial and mining has decreased, and the demand for diesel is not as good as expected. The prices of the navigable factor are superimposed, and the price of the main unit in China has fallen.

The retail price of domestic oil prices will be fulfilled in this round of "four consecutive declines", and a new round of change may still begin at a negative value. The news surface may be short -term or continue. Affected by the epidemic situation in some regions of the country in the later period, the consumption of gasoline terminals may continue to tighten; and in terms of diesel, exports have increased from the previous month, and with the end of the fishing period of some sea areas, the demand for diesel terminals is expected to be better. In summary, the lower window is approaching, and the market lacks transaction support. It is expected that the short -term domestic docking market will continue to visit. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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