Global Financial connection ｜ my country's foreign trade has achieved rapid growth in the first and July of this year. A shares fluctuate upward.

21st Century Business Herald reporter Shi Shi Shi Shi Shanghai report

my country's foreign trade achieves rapid growth

According to data on the 7th, the General Administration of Customs showed that in the first seven months of this year, the total value of my country's import and export value was 23.6 trillion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 10.4%. Among them, in July, my country's total import and export value was 3.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.6%year -on -year. In what aspects of my country's foreign trade have made progress? What is the growth situation in the second half of the year? Let's connect Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce.

Stability of foreign trade measures to achieve results

"Global Finance Link": Data in July reflects the development trend of my country's foreign trade? What are the highlights of the import and exit?

Bai Ming: The total foreign trade import and export calculated in the first seven months increased by 10.4%year -on -year. This data shows that a series of (measures) that we have stabilized foreign trade since this year have achieved results. The relevant government departments have adopted a series of measures to stabilize foreign trade, especially the market entities stabilized. The focus is on stabilizing small and medium -sized enterprises. The measures reduce the burden on the enterprise and enhance the survivability of the enterprise.

There are two more important points in the first half of the year. One is the RMB exchange rate. Starting from May, June and July, the RMB has gradually depreciated. Now it has depreciated to $ 1 to 6.7 to 6.8 (yuan), which will help alleviate the financial pressure of the enterprise. At the same time, a hidden danger that plagued foreign trade last year was the cost of shipping logistics. This year, the cost of logistics fell sharply, which is also conducive to the expansion of foreign trade enterprises.

Manufacturing upgrade effect is being upgraded to foreign trade upgrades

"Global Finance and Economics": The current global market demand is facing challenges. How do you look forward to the export growth situation in the second half of the year?

Bai Ming: The inflation rate in Europe and the United States is indeed very high, and it will have an impact on the demand of the international market, and its impact on China is the first. At the same time, the Russian -Ukraine conflict has not yet showed signs, and the uncertainty of the international commodity market is also very high.

In May, the state issued various policies to help enterprises' rescue. (These policies) will continue to exert efficiency in the second half of the year, especially to support foreign trade enterprises. In the past few years, the country has actively promoted the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry. Now the transformation and upgrading of these manufacturing industries is gradually converting into the effect of foreign trade transformation and upgrading. In particular, the new model and new format of foreign trade has also played an important traction driving force. In addition, the private economy in the first 7 months of this year accounted for 50%of our total foreign trade value, and the proportion of exports was even close to 60%. General trade represents the new advantage of trade competition. Now the growth of general trade is also fast. I think these will also have new push for foreign trade in China in the second half of the year.

A shares have risen after the transactions last week, and the transactions have recovered

After the A -share opened low today, the shock rebounded. As of the closing, the Shanghai Index rose 0.31%, the Shenzhen Index rose 0.27%, and the GEM index fell 0.29%.

The main index of A shares fell first and then rose, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell slightly by 0.81%. The transactions of the two cities also rebounded, and the average daily turnover returned to more than trillion yuan.

For the analysis of the A -share affairs, we came to connect the senior analyst of China Merchants Securities Strategy Chen Gang.

There is no large downward pressure in the current market

"Global Finance and Economics": Last week, the main index of A shares was suppressed first, and the transactions of the two cities also picked up. Will the weak market pattern of shock since July reverse this?

Chen Gang: After the index is adjusted in the early stage, it may continue the trend of previous shocks.

On the one hand, due to the convening of the Politburo Conference, the market may pay more attention to the follow -up arrangements of the policy level for economic work. The active arrangements of the financial and monetary policy in the Politburo meeting in July, which made the growth rate of social merger in the second half of the year rise significantly rebounding. Probability is further improved. In terms of external factors, after the Fed's most severe interest rate hike boots landed, the US debt yield and the US dollar index were weakened, and the impact on A shares was positively.

In general, the economic recovery process is currently in the process of economic recovery, the monetary policy is loose, and the market does not have large downward pressure.

The core driving force lies in the economic recovery strength and policy arrangement

"Global Financial connection": Next, what will be the core motivation of the market? What challenges are still facing?

Chen Gang: Next to promote the core motivation of the market, I think it lies in the intensity and corresponding policy arrangements of the follow -up economic recovery.

After the social merger volume in May and June, we may pay attention to its process of economic and corporate profits, so as to determine whether the recovery process can be achieved smoothly. If the recovery process is achieved smoothly, it means that the subsequent market may become a state of partial profit fundamental driving, and the selection of related industries will also be affected by this state. If the recovery is not smooth, it means that in the future, whether it is a fiscal or monetary policy, it may need to make further arrangements. Relatively speaking, this is a state of biased dynamic drive.

In addition, everyone is worried that global demand has weakened, shrinking, and domestic inflation. The follow -up may not be the most important factor leading the trend of A shares. The main factors depend on the combination of domestic economy, monetary policy and corporate profitability.

US Congress Senate passed inflation reduction bills

On the 7th local time, the US Senate passed the inflation reduction bill and submitted the bill to the House of Representatives. The $ 740 billion expenditure bill will increase taxes to enterprises, respond to climate change, reduce prescription drug costs, and reduce deficit. Below we will listen to Wu Qisheng's interpretation of the bill of the bill.

In the short term, the bill has a small impact on lowering inflation "Global Finance and Economics": A series of measures such as reducing the inflation bill such as response to climate change and reducing prescription drug costs seem to be less associated with the current US inflation problem. Is this bill really designed to reduce inflation? How big is the economic significance?

Wu Qisheng: The Afrtile Act is actually a climate change and a narrow version of the Democratic Party's climate change last year. The initial expenditure quota of the bill was as high as 3.5 trillion US dollars. Last month, the major party leader of the Senate and the Democratic Senator of West Virginia reached an agreement to reduce the amount of the bill of bills to more than 700 billion US dollars, which is equivalent to 1/5 of the previous expenditure quota and re -re -re -re -re -re -reinforcing the bill. Named the inflation reduction bill.

It can be seen that the real purpose of the current Democratic Party's promotion of the bill is not as claimed by the name of the bill. In order to reduce the pressure of inflation in the United States, it is mainly to fulfill the Democratic Party's previous election in November this year. A series of commitments, including reducing medical burden on ordinary families in the United States, response to climate change, taxes to large US companies. Therefore, for the Democratic Party, the political significance of the bill is greater than its economic significance.

It is undeniable that some terms in the bill can be used to relieve inflation pressure. In the long run, it can reduce expenses and help reduce inflation. But in general, most of the clauses of the bill have a long span, and in the short term, it has little effect on reducing inflation pressure in the United States in the short term. In addition, in the United States, it is mainly the Fed's work in response to inflation. It is difficult for the US Congress to respond to inflation in the short term through legislation.

The bill will reduce the willingness to invest in large companies in the United States

"Global Finance and Economics": The tax reform in the bill has triggered a lot of discussions. Analysis believes that this may "stifle employment" or exacerbate the risk of US economic recession. What impact do you think will have higher taxes on capital?

Wu Qisheng: The Afrtile Act hopes to increase the fiscal revenue of more than $ 700 billion by increasing corporate income tax rates and strengthening taxation and supervision in the next few years. The biggest affected by the bill of taxation by the bill is large companies with an annual income of more than one billion US dollars, and they will face a minimum corporate income tax rate of 15%. But the number of affected companies is not large, about 150. However, because the current federal tax paid by many large companies in the United States is very low, once the new bill is implemented, it will significantly increase the tax burden of these companies and reduce their willingness and ability to further invest in the United States. In addition, the bill proposes that the company's stock repurchase is required by 1%of taxes and fees, which will also force Apple, Morgan Stanley, Nike and other companies to abandon the company's stock repurchase plan in the short term, so The price causes a certain pressure.

(The market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious. The opinions of the guests on this show only represent their own opinions.)

Planning: Yu Xiaona

Produced: Shi Shi

Editor -in -chief: Du Hongyu and Jia Zhao Yue Li Yinong

Production: Yuan Sijie

Trainer: Hao Jiaqi Zhang Yuxiao

Shooting: Chen Chen

New media overall planning: Ding Qingyun Zeng Tingfang Lai Xixun

Overseas operation producer: Huang Yanshu

Overseas Operation Editor: Zhang Ran Tang Shuangyan Wu Wanjie

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Produced: Southern Finance All Media Group

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