The interest rate of overnight funds will continue to be low -level in the industry. MLF or shrinking sequel next week

Reporter Liu Qi

Since August, the interest rate of overnight funds has continued to hover. In particular, overnight Shibor (Shanghai Banking Interbank Demolition interest rate) and DR001 (bank market deposit institutions overnight pledged repurchase interest rate) have been below 1.1%since August 2, which is lower than the same period of the month during the year.

According to data from the National Banking Interbank Borrowing Center, DR001 has continued to decline since August 1, and the average interest rate on August 8 was 1.0137%. As of 16:00 on August 9, the weighted average interest rate of DR001 was 1.0227%. From August 1st to August 8th, 1.013%on August 8th was the low level during the year, and 0.5 basis points on August 9 to 1.018%; R001 (the interbank market overnight pledge repurchase interest rate) In August) It also fell to the low level of the year on the 8th at 1.1038%.

Talking about the reasons for the low interest rate of overnight funds, Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, told the reporter of the Securities Daily that first of all, since April, with the large -scale launch of tax refund and special debt funds, the market liquidity has continued to be slightly higher than slightly higher than slightly higher than slightly higher than slightly higher than slightly higher than slightly higher than slightly higher than that Reasonable and abundant level. Since August, this process may continue, and it has continued to become the main reasons for the decline in major market interest rates such as overnight capital interest rates, 7 -day capital interest rates, and one -year banking deposit yields. Secondly, the current monetary policy focuses on providing a favorable monetary and financial environment for economic restoration, or hopes to support banks to increase credit offering with relatively loose market liquidity. Thirdly, the recent economic restoration progress has been relatively mild, and the investment and consumption activity of market entities are still at a lower level. The credit demand of enterprises and residents needs to be further released, and bank risk preferences need to be further improved. This has also led to the more liquidity of the banking system in the currency market.

As R001 and DR001 have been at a low level in the near future, overnight pledge repurchase daily transaction volume has also maintained at more than 6 trillion yuan since August 2. Among them, on August 8th, the daily trading volume of the pledged repurchase daily overnight reached 6.38 trillion yuan, a new high in the year, accounting for about 90%of the pledged repurchase daily transaction volume (706 trillion yuan). Plus leverage is relatively high.

Regarding the possibility of whether the interest rate of funds overnight in the future, the chief economist of CITIC Securities said in an interview with the Securities Daily that there are multiple factors to restrict their further downward space: on the one hand, the maintenance of the interest rate conduction mechanism is maintained According to an angle, the market interest rate and policy interest rate deviations are greatly deviated to the guidance of policy interest rates. In order to maintain the effectiveness of the interest rate conduction mechanism, the central bank will also regulate the interest rate of overnight funds in time; on the other hand From the perspective of the fragility of the financial system, the cycling of funds is accompanied by the shortening of the liability period, which has increased the risk of serious insufficient liquidity in the short term. When physical investment returns decline and funds are used in financial investment, the risk of leverage may be greater. , Run counter to the original intention of the policy. In addition, the focus of the future monetary policy may not be loose, but to guide the wide currency to effectively transmit it to wide credit to avoid a large amount of funds from turning over the currency market.

Wang Qing also believes that the loose effect of the funding brought by fiscal funds may be close to the end, and the current overnight rate of funds is close to the historical low, and the space and possibility that continues to be below 1%is not great. Essence In addition, the phenomenon of "rolling overnight" in the debt market is more prominent, which may arouse regulatory attention.

It is worth mentioning that, in addition to overnight capital interest rates, DR007 (7 -day pledge repurchase interest rate for bank deposit financial institutions) is also at a low level. On August 8, the weighted interest rate of DR007 was 1.285%, the lowest value during the year, far lower than the current 7 -day reverse repurchase interest rate (2.1%).

In the context of abundant funds, the central bank has also maintained the "land volume" reverse repurchase operation. Since August, the daily operation volume has been 2 billion yuan. Next week, there will be 600 billion yuan MLF (interim borrowing convenience) expires. Will the central bank likely shrink the sequel?

In this regard, the aforementioned analysts believe that there is a possibility of shrinking sequels. Wang Qing said that from the previous situation, in the context of market capital interest rates significantly lower than the corresponding policy interest rate, the possibility of the MLF shrinkage sequel will increase; and in August The 100 billion yuan is different and has the conditions for shrinking sequels. However, the current economic restoration process is relatively mild, and the use of wide credit needs to be further exerted. From this perspective, it is not possible to completely exclude the possibility of MLF and other sequels in August.

"After all, compared with the" land volume "reverse repurchase, the liquidity tightening signal of the sequel to the sequel to the sequel is stronger, and the market forces themselves have a trend of promoting the upward rate of capital interest rates in the later period." Wang Qing believes.

- END -