Experts interpret July CPI and PPI: Input inflation pressure is reduced

In July, CPI rose by 2.7%year -on -year, up 0.5%month -on -month, in line with market expectations.

"Pig Vegetable Resonance" promotes rising food prices. In July, CPI food prices rose 3%month -on -month. Fresh vegetables and pork were the main promotion factor. Affected by the early production capacity and part of the breeding households, the pork prices continued to rise by 25.6%from the previous period in early July. However, as the weather demand fell, policy guided market expectations, and pork prices have recently adjusted. At the same time, after the price of fresh vegetables was bottomed out in the early stage, in July, it was affected by abnormal weather in some areas, and fresh vegetables rose 10.3%month -on -month. In the end, the two most elastic foods formed a "pig vegetable resonance" to promote the rise in food prices.

Energy prices have turned down to cool down, and non -food decreased by 0.1%month -on -month. In July, international oil prices were affected by the decline in transactions. In the end of June and July, my country ’s two refined oil products were reduced to promote the significant decline in CPI energy prices. Essence

After removing energy food, the core inflation rose from the previous month but fell year -on -year. In July, the core CPI rose 0.1%month -on -month, which was the same as last month. influences.

The core CPI structure points reflect the mild recovery of physical needs. From the perspective of service products, the summer holiday factors have promoted aircraft tickets, hotel accommodation, transportation fees and tourism prices of 6.1%, 5.0%, 4.3%, and 3.5%respectively. However, the price of other services is mild, and family services rose 0.1%month -on -month. Traffic services, postal communication, educational services, and medical services are flat. From the perspective of durable consumer goods, home appliances and communication tools rose 0.9%and 1.7%respectively, but the means of transportation decreased by 0.3%month -on -month. Rental prices rose 0.1%month -on -month, ending a month -on -month decline of two consecutive months, reflecting the rise of living demand and business vitality. Looking at the current real economic demand is still in the mild recovery stage, but in various fields, there are still uneven hot and cold.

In July, PPI rose 4.2%year -on -year, and decreased by 1.3%month -on -month, in line with market expectations.

The decline in international commodity prices led to the decline in midstream and upstream prices. The price of international commodities in the early July period fell into a "recession transaction", and the prices of energy and metal products were significantly lower, but the market was worried to alleviate, some commodities stabilized or even rebounded. Natural gas prices continued to rise due to the Russian crisis crisis and summer power demand. Affected by abundant supply and weak demand, the price of domestic industrial products is weaker than international, especially the price of midstream and upstream energy, metals, and chemicals has decreased significantly, resulting in PPI production materials decreased by 1.7%month -on -month, of which the mining price decreased by 1.9%month -on -month. The price decreased by 2.5%month -on -month, and the processing price decreased by 1.3%month -on -month.

The prices of downstream living materials have remained rising from the previous month. Unlike the downstream prices downstream, the effect of rising prices in the early stage is still being transmitted to the downstream. The downstream living materials rose 0.2%month -on -month. Food, clothing, and durable consumer goods rose 0.6%, 0.1%, and 0.2%respectively. 0.3%.

Inflation prospect: Input inflation pressure is reduced, but structural inflation pressure is still there

With the continuous tightening of the monetary policy of major economies, the price of international commodities has fallen into a recession, and the external inflation pressure faced by my country is reduced. However, in view of the global geopolitical situation, there is still great uncertainty, and the pressure on external inflation in the future should not be too optimistic.

At the same time, the internal pressure faced by inflation in my country is also rising, mainly reflected in the structural inflation based on food prices. Especially after pork prices have entered the rebound cycle, the suppression of CPI has changed over the past year. As the summer flood season arrived, the cyclical rise of pork prices after the rise of fresh vegetables rose, and the price of food prices had a certain increase in price increases. However, recently, the Development and Reform Commission reminds relevant enterprises to maintain a normal rhythm and avoid blind pressure fences. As the off -season drops, the short -term pork rising power will fall, and the rise in food prices will still be mild.

On the whole, it is expected that the CPI will rise mildly in the future, and the probability of breaking 3%in some months (September and December) will be greater, but the average level of the year will still be controlled within the policy goals. At the same time, due to the influence of the base of last year and the weakening of the rising kinetic energy of the global commodity, PPI will continue to continue to fall. Combining CPI and PPI "one up and down" comprehensive consideration, inflation does not constitute a lot of pressure on monetary policy.

(Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, Wen Bin, a senior researcher at the China Minsheng Bank Research Institute, should be learned)

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