Fengkou Think Tank | Pig Vegetable Resonance, CPI is about to "break 3"?How does it affect monetary policy?

Fengkou Finance reporter Liu Xiao

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 10th, in July 2022, CPI rose 2.7%year -on -year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from last month; PPI rose 4.7%year -on -year, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from the previous month. Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician of the National Bureau of Statistics, believes that in July, due to the rise in food prices such as pork and fresh vegetables and seasonal factors, the CPI rose from the previous month, and the year -on -year increase was slightly expanded.

A number of experts interviewed by Fengkou Finance said that the internal pressure faced by inflation in my country is rising, which is mainly reflected in the structural inflation based on food prices. It is expected that the probability of CPI will exceed 3%in some month in the future. However, the average annual average is still controlled within the policy goals.

The demand for the real economy is still mild recovery

"Pig vegetable resonance pushing food prices rose." Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank and Dean of the Research Institute, told Fengkou Finance that CPI food prices rose 3%month -on -month. Fresh vegetables and pork are the main promotion factor. Affected by the early production capacity and part of the breeding households, the pork prices continued to rise by 25.6%from the previous period in early July. However, as the weather demand fell, policy guided market expectations, and pork prices have recently adjusted. At the same time, after the price of fresh vegetables was bottomed out in the early stage, in July, it was affected by abnormal weather in some areas, and fresh vegetables rose 10.3%month -on -month. In the end, the two most elastic foods formed a "pig vegetable resonance" to promote the rise in food prices.

Wen Bin believes that the core CPI structure points reflect the mild demand for physical needs. From the perspective of service products, the summer holiday factors have promoted aircraft tickets, hotel accommodation, transportation fees and tourism prices of 6.1%, 5.0%, 4.3%, and 3.5%respectively. However, the price of other services is mild, and family services rose 0.1%month -on -month. Traffic services, postal communication, educational services, and medical services are flat. From the perspective of durable consumer goods, home appliances and communication tools rose 0.9%and 1.7%respectively, but the means of transportation decreased by 0.3%month -on -month. Rental prices rose 0.1%month -on -month, ending a month -on -month decline of two consecutive months, reflecting the rise of living demand and business vitality. Looking at the current real economic demand is still in the mild recovery stage, but in various fields, there are still uneven hot and cold.

Dongfang Jincheng's chief macro analyst Wang Qing told Fengkou Finance that in July, CPI rose by 2.7%year -on -year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, which is lower than the market's general expectations, indicating that the current inflation situation in the consumer goods and service market is still gentle and controllable. He said that the year -on -year increase of CPIs expanded by 0.2 percentage points, mainly due to fluctuations in the price of pork and fresh vegetables, and did not mean that the overall price situation was heating up. In fact, after deducting foods and energy prices with a large price fluctuation, the core CPI increased by 0.8%year -on -year in July, which was 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and continued to be at a significant low level. This means that the overall price trend of the current consumer goods and service market is stable.

Ding Yujia, a researcher at Zhixin Investment Research Institute, also believes that the main reason for CPI's year -on -year increase in this month is that the prices of pork and fresh vegetables have soared to promote the rise in food prices. Affected by factors such as the gradually emerging effect of pig production capacity, gradually appearing, some breeding household pressure fences and recovery of consumer demand, the pig price center rose significantly in July, rising 25.6%month -on -month. Turn to an increase of 20.2%; continuous high temperatures make the supply of fresh vegetables tight, and the price of fresh vegetables rose 10.3%month -on -month, which is stronger than seasonality.

Source: Website of the National Bureau of Statistics

Do not affect the stable growth policy

Since the beginning of this year, it has been impacted by super -expected factors such as the more complicated and severe international environment and a new round of new crown pneumonia. Earlier, multiple conferences mentioned that the second half of the year will continue to maintain the continuity of macro policies, and resolutely do not engage in "big water". From the data point of view, will CPI affect macro policies in July?

Wang Qing believes that the increase in CPI in July by 0.2 percentage points, and the core CPI increase was narrowed by 0.2 percentage points, which means that the current overall price increase pressure actually eased. As a result, although the overall CPI growth rate accelerated in July, the increase was approaching the 3.0%control target, but it would not drive monetary policy to tighten. Because my country's CPI is greatly affected by pork prices, the core CPI is an important indicator and an important reference point for monetary policy. "It can be seen that due to the significant impact of pork prices, CPI in November 2019 was as high as 4.5%year -on -year, while the central bank implemented a policy interest rate cut (MLF interest rate) in the month to cope with the downward pressure brought about by Sino -US economic and trade frictions. One of the main reasons is that the core CPI in November 2019 was only 1.4%year -on -year. "Wang Qing said.

Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department of Everbright Bank, said that domestic consumers have remained mild prices, and the upstream and downstream price structures continue to improve, which will not affect domestic stable growth policies. In addition, from the perspective of core PPI and PPI performance, the focus of domestic policies is mainly to help enterprises and promote domestic demand. Implementing previously introduced policies and measures to keep supply and stabilize prices, relieves enterprises, and stabilize growth. At present, due to the high operation of energy and commodity prices, the demand recovery is lagging behind, and the operation of enterprises in some industries still faces greater difficulties. In terms of promoting domestic demand recovery, one is to work hard to release the vitality of the micro -subject and protect the market. "We have a forecast for the second half of this year. The CPI of the whole year is 2.3%, and the PPI of the year is 5.4%." Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of Ping An Securities, believes that domestic inflation is not a very tight constraint now. Steady growth. If the inflation center is higher than expected in the second half of the year, it will bring more challenges to macro policies. "We hope that the inflation can still exist in the second half of the year, so that our entire fiscal and monetary policy will be more abundant."

Lian Ping, Chief Economist and Dean of the Institute of Investment, said in an interview with the ventilation financial interview that the current domestic inflation expectations are generally controllable, and the impact on monetary policy is not significant. However, in the high global environmental environment, international commodities have remained high, and PPIs still face large input -type inflation pressure. The Chinese economy has been deeply integrated into the world economy. In the middle and long term, global inflation spread may affect the stability of China's currency operation and price trend through the input effect, exacerbate domestic inflation pressure, put pressure on monetary policy The space is limited.

Source: Website of the National Bureau of Statistics

Structural inflation pressure is still there

Looking forward to the trend of inflation in the future, Wen Bin told Fengkou Finance that as the monetary policy of major economies continued to tighten, international commodity prices fell into recession, and the external inflation pressure faced by my country was reduced. However, in view of the global geopolitical situation, there is still great uncertainty, and the pressure on external inflation in the future should not be too optimistic. At the same time, the internal pressure faced by inflation in my country is also rising, mainly reflected in the structural inflation based on food prices. Especially after pork prices have entered the rebound cycle, the suppression of CPI has changed over the past year. As the summer flood season arrived, the cyclical rise of pork prices after the rise of fresh vegetables rose, and the price of food prices had a certain increase in price increases. However, recently, the Development and Reform Commission reminds relevant enterprises to maintain a normal rhythm and avoid blind pressure fences. As the off -season drops, the short -term pork rising power will fall, and the rise in food prices will still be mild.

Wen Bin pointed out that as a whole, it is expected that the CPI will rise mildly in the future. In some months (September and December), the probability of breaking 3%up to 3%, but the average annual average will still be controlled within the policy goals. At the same time, due to the influence of the base of last year and the weakening of the rising kinetic energy of the global commodity, PPI will continue to continue to fall. Combining CPI and PPI "one up and down" comprehensive consideration, inflation does not constitute a lot of pressure on monetary policy.

There is also Lianping with a similar point of view. He believes that due to the influence of the ups and downs of the pig, higher energy prices and low bases, the CPI may maintain a gentle upward trend in the second half of the year. It is controlled within 3%and is expected to be about 2.6%; PPI continues to decline before the end of the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, it may be re -expanded by the influence of the international commodity of Russia and Ukraine. It is expected to be around 6.5%throughout the year.

Wang Qing also said that overall, there is still room for pork prices to rise, which will drive the CPI in the second half of the year to rise from the year -on -year center. Not big. The main reason is that although the "pig cycle" in the second quarter was transferred to the upward price, due to the lack of swine fever epidemic catalytic, the pork prices rising space in the future is limited, and the possibility of repeating the continuous surge in the second half of 2019 is very small. In addition, in the context of the global economic deceleration, the possibility of international oil prices in the second half of the year is also declining, so that the risk of "lard resonance" in the second half of the year is controllable.

- END -