The central bank predicts that in the second half of the year, my country's CPI operating center will rise, and it may break 3% in individual months

Zhongxin Jingwei, August 10th. On the 10th, the central bank issued a report on China's monetary policy implementation report in the second quarter of 2022 that prices can still achieve expected goals throughout the year, but they should be alert to structural inflation pressure.

The report states that the global inflation level has continued to operate at a high level recently, especially the main developed economies has faced the pressure of high inflation for decades. In June, the US CPI and the euro zone HICP rose by 9.1%and 8.6%year -on -year, respectively. And there has been a new high since the statistics, and macro policies have fallen into a dilemma of stable growth and anti -inflation. This is closely related to the fact that the central bank of the developed economy has misjudged the inflation situation in the early stage, and the policy adjustment is closely related to the market curve. It also brings inspiration and reference to my country's macro -control. It should be seen that maintaining the stability of the currency is the primary responsibility of the central bank. Maintaining inflation stability is the meaning of the stability of the macro market, and it is also an environmental requirement for the sustainable and steady economic growth of the economy. At any time, the central bank should keep paying great attention to the marginal changes of the price trend, comprehensive considerations of various factors, objectively judging the future inflation situation, and planning a good job of policy arrangements.

The report pointed out that on the one hand, in the fundamental perspective, my country has favorable conditions for maintaining the overall stability of the price level. In the past period, the inflation trend in my country was generally mild and stable. From January to June this year, CPI cumulatively increased by 1.7%year-on-year. The PPI increased month-on-month increased by month. In the context of rare high inflation worldwide, the domestic price situation has been stable. It is expected that the price increase will still run in a reasonable range this year, and it is expected to achieve the expected target of about 3%of the annual CPI increase of about 3%. This is due to the unified deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council to grasp the stable price of food and energy supply, effectively isolated the impact of the domestic prices of commodities and grain prices, and insist on not engaged in "large water drilling", not over -issuing, not overflowing. Currency has laid a solid foundation for the stability of prices, and its achievements are not easy.

Fundamentally, my country is one of the major producers in the world. Monetary policy has remained stable, the total economic supply and total demand are generally balanced, and the self -sufficiency rate of grain is high. Price and international market linkage are low, the domestic industrial chain and supply chain are relatively unobstructed. Residents' inflation is expected to be stable, and the economic fundamentals of healthy, benign, and toughness are conducive to the overall operation of price increases in a reasonable and controllable range in the middle and long term. scope.

On the other hand, we must also see that my country's structural inflation pressure may increase in the short term, and the pressure of input inflation is still existed. Under multiple factors, the price increase may be rebounded in a phase, and it cannot be taken lightly.

From the outside, bonuses such as global integration and abundant labor supply have been reversed in the past two decades of global inflation. Excellent factors such as repeated epidemic, abnormal climate, and geopolitical conflict may also increase the uncertainty of supply and demand disturbances and price fluctuations, and fundamental changes have occurred in the external environment.

From a domestic perspective, many factors superimposed to the central staging of the driving inflation, the main pressure comes from:

First, the future consumption recovery recovery after the epidemic is controlled, which may promote the increase of the early PPI rise to the CPI's transmission. From January to June of this year, the increase in production materials in my country's PPI converged from 11.8%to 7.5%month by month, but the increase in living materials increased from 0.8%to 1.7%month by month, and the transmission effect of downstream was emerging. In the process, the rebound of consumer demand is the dominant force, and the increase in the full factor productivity of the supply side can only be partially digested the pressure of price increases. In practice, the increase of CPI in the United States has accelerated, that is, the consumption demand will be accelerated during March 2021.

Second, my country's CPI baskets rely on the price of foods, especially pork. At present, a new round of "pig cycle" has been opened, and the increase in CPI food points may increase. Since 2006, my country has experienced four rounds of "pig cycle", which lasted about four years each, and the first 1.5-2 years was the price of the price. In April of this year, the price of domestic pork down to the low point is about four years before the starting point of the previous round (Around May 2018). Since late April, pork prices have tended to rise, especially after June in the second half of June, the increase in price increases, and the slope of upward curve became steep. It means that a new round of "pig cycle" has begun. In comparison, the current supply of pigs in my country is generally abundant. The price increase of pork in the "pig cycle" in this round is expected to be relatively milder than the swine fever period in 2019, but it will still bring a certain pull -down effect to the CPI during its price.

Third, my country's imports of energy and natural gas such as oil and natural gas are high. The rise in energy import costs will eventually reflect the widespread price increase of domestic transportation and related industrial chain terminal consumer products. Since the second half of this year, the price of Brent crude oil has shocked at $ 90-115/barrel, and the absolute level is still high. The average price from January to July increased by more than 50%compared with the same period last year. Affected by this, the average domestic price of No. 92 gasoline in the first 7 months rose by 25.3%year -on -year. The cumulative traffic communication scores in CPI rose 6.3%year -on -year, an increase of 4.5 percentage points higher than the overall CPI, and the input inflation pressure still existed.

The report pointed out that comprehensive research and judgment, it is expected that my country's CPI operation center in the second half of this year will increase from 1.7%in the first half of the year. In some months, the increase in the month may exceed 3%, and the structural inflation pressure will increase.In the next stage, the monetary policy will adhere to the steady orientation, insist on not engaged in "big water", not exceeding currency, and take into account the balance of steady growth, employment, and price stability.On the one hand, it continuously consolidates the favorable conditions for domestic food stable production and the smooth operation of the energy market, pays close attention to the changes in the inflation situation at home and abroad, and make proper responses; on the other hand, continue to maintain a reasonable liquidity, increase support for the real economy,, Maintaining the amount of money supply and the scale of social financing increased reasonably, and strive to achieve the best results of economic operation throughout the year.(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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