Experts interpret July CPI and PPI data: CPI rebound is mainly driven by pork prices

Cover reporter Wu Yujia

On August 10, the National Bureau of Statistics released data. In July, the National Residents' Consumption Price Index (CPI) changed from flat to 0.5%from the previous month to 0.5%; Still running in a reasonable range.

Feng Mohan, a macroeconomic researcher at Beijing Fushengde Consultation, believes that the recovery of CPI is mainly driven by food prices, especially pork prices. Feng Mohan said that the data showed that from the previous month, CPI changed from flat to 0.5%last month. Among them, food prices decreased from 1.6%last month to 3.0%, affecting CPI by about 0.53 percentage points. In food, it is affected by factors such as gradually appearing in the early period of pig production capacity, the gradual appearance of the breeding households, and the recovery of consumer demand. The price of pork rose by 25.6%; affected by the continuous high temperature weather in many places, the price of fresh vegetables decreased by 9.2%last month by 9.2%. Turn to an increase of 10.3%, the increase is higher than the seasonality; the fresh fruit is listed in large quantities, and the price drops 3.8%.

Will the price of pork rise further? Feng Mohan said that the fluctuations in pork prices are mainly affected by periodic supply and demand relationship. From the current situation, the amount of pigs surviving is declining, but the overall is relatively abundant, which also means that the price of pork will still be increased mild, but there is no significant significant existence The foundation of rapid rise.

In terms of PPI, from the perspective of the year -on -month, PPI changed from flat to 1.3%last month. From a year -on -year perspective, PPI rose 4.2%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points from the previous month. Feng Mohan pointed out that the decline in PPI was mainly affected by the slowdown of the global economy.

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