"Finance and Economics" Cai Yan: Financial innovation should consider more demand side

Cai Yan: Financial innovation should consider more demand side

Finance

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According to the latest forecast, probably this year or next year, the Chinese population will reach its peak, and then enter negative growth. At the same time, the population of India will exceed China, and the future gap will be very significant. This means that China will officially enter the era of population's negative growth. This is not periodic, not fleeting, it is a long -term trend. The new population turning point may bring a new impact.

The seventh national census in 2020 shows that the total fertility rate of women in Chinese childbearing age is 1.3, which is at a lower level. According to the data released by the State Bureau of Statistics, in 2021, my country's population growth rate was 0.34 ‰, and the proportion of population of 65 and above was 14.2 %. In accordance with the standards of the World Health Organization, more than 14 % means that it has entered an aging society.

The population impact of the past ten years has caused the supply side, which has led to potential economic growth and downward growth. As a "new normal" in the past, we can cope with supply -side structural reforms. However, the impact of the population this time affects the consumer demand of residents, which will become the new normal constraints of the Chinese economy.

China's population will affect consumption from several aspects. The following effects are not conducive to consumption.

The first is the total population effect. When responding to the supply side in 2010, China's demand structure has also been adjusted accordingly. It is the most important force for residents' consumption. In the past, the population and economic growth of China were decelerating. Therefore, the total population effect was a factor that caused the downturn. People were consumers. Human growth was slow or negatively increased, and consumption would be affected.

The second is the growth effect or income effect. The economic growth rate has slowed down, and the increase in income levels will definitely slow down, all of which directly affect consumption. Therefore, from the perspective of population growth, per capita GDP growth, and residential consumption growth, the three are consistent and downward. In the future, the population growth will occur, and the growth rate of GDP will be lower. These suppressed residents' consumption at a considerable level.

The third is the age structure effect of the population. The income level of Chinese elderly people is lower than young people. At the same time, the elderly will have some worries after retirement. They think for their children and their grandsons. Therefore, they are more inclined to save and consume less. As the age increases, the level of consumption expenditure has declined. Except for his medical expenditure, the elderly are the lowest level of expenditure. As my country's population is getting older and aged, there will be a tendency to lack insufficient consumption, which is the age structure effect of the population.

Globally, more and more countries have experienced negative population growth, especially during the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the global fertility rate has declined significantly. As a result, global aging, negative population growth, or population stagnation will become a trend.

In the era of negative population, national policies, corporate decisions, and personal choices will change. This is because the population plays an important catalyst in the allocation of resources. The negative growth of the population means that the increase in resource mobilization will decrease, and economic development will become more and more rely on the resource re -allocation. For finance, the past may pay attention to making big cakes, and what may be concerned about in the future is how to better allocate cakes. In the past, it was for mobilization, now for configuration and re -configuration. The normal constraints of economic growth are also a new challenge from the supply side to demand side. In the face of these challenges, we need to make new changes in many major decisions.

In response to the current insufficient consumption, insufficient income, and long -term demand constraints, in the final analysis, the government must play a greater role, and to adjust the structure and direction of the government's role. These all require the government to have new expenditures and larger expenditures.

In the future, financial development should consider these new factors.

First, change from the supply side to the demand side constraints. With the development of information technology and digital economy, our financial innovation capabilities have further improved. However, we must know that there is a way to deal with it; if you judge the wrong direction, the greater the strength, the greater the possibility of mistakes.

Second, the role of fiscal will be more important than the future monetary policy, and the direction of fiscal expenditure will also change, that is, it is more affixed to people's livelihood and more affordable to social benefits. These also affect our financial and wealth management.

Third, the market subject, the production subject of the producer operator to the change of the family. Family is the basic unit of population re -production, the basic unit of consumption, and affecting demand factor.

In the next ten years, special groups such as the elderly, the rural population, and migrant workers that have just been poverty alleviation are facing a process from low -income to secondary income groups. The process of this transformation should also become a profit for financial and wealth management source.

Cai Yan: The lecturer of the Chang'an Street Reading Club, the former vice president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

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