Deep ｜ The "Ten Yuan Store" maze of Mingchuang Youpin

21st Century Business Herald reporter Ye Bihua Intern Zeng Peiqian Guangzhou and Pingxiang Report

House seemingly endless rain. Following the first day of listing in Hong Kong and suffering a empty sniper, the famous Creative Products (09896.HK) on the evening of August 9th rushed on the hot search due to the blind box post incident.

On July 25th, the short -selling agency Blue ORCA Capital disclosed the short position of the famous and innocent products, accusing Name Chuangyou lying on its core business model. The personal secrets that are closely related to the chairman's relationship have the authenticity of the personal secrets, and questioned the authenticity of its financial report, saying that it is "retailer in the recession."

Although two days later, Mingchuang Youpin issued an announcement in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to respond to relevant allegations, but the stock price was still severely frustrated. On the day of the short report report, the stock price of Mingchuang Youpin American US -US stocks closed at 6.13 US dollars/shares on July 26, Eastern Time, down 15.98%; on July 26, Beijing time, the stock price of Mingchuang Youpin Hong Kong shares closed at HK $ 13.98/share. The decline was 2.37%; as of the close of August 11, the stock price of the famous Hong Kong stocks was HK $ 12.02, which was nearly 13%from the issuance price of HK $ 13.8. Within 28 days of listing, the market value shrunk by about 1.7 billion Hong Kong dollars.

Right now, the anxiety faced by Mingchuang Youpin is far more simple.

Excluding the impact of the epidemic, and the opening of stores in overseas markets and domestic third- and fourth -tier cities is a strategy of response in the short term. The blind box of the incident is the important transformation direction under the concept of "interest consumption" that the founder of the famous creation, Ye Guofu, founder. Faced with the current challenges, can Ye Guofu reappear in danger and go through the crisis smoothly?

The old road is getting more and more unreasonable

Time returned to June 8, 2019. In a video interview, Ye Guofu, who was the founder, once again mentioned the five -year "small" goal of Mingchuang Youpin: in one hundred countries, open 10,000 stores, Over 100 billion yuan in sales. "Wal -Mart's big stores can open 10,000 stores, and it is okay to open 100,000 stores in the world." Ye Guofu said at the time.

It is quite surprising that on October 15th, one year later, the famous Chuang Youpin landed on the New York Stock Exchange at $ 20 and staged a miracle of "ten yuan stores counterattack into a market value giant". At the listing ceremony, Ye Guofu concluded: "The biggest core competitiveness of the famous and innocent products is the ultimate cost -effective and high -frequency new."

But in the past two years, the core competitiveness that Mingchuang has created and dependent in the past seems difficult to continue. On the one hand, the passenger flow of the offline stores in large cities is serious; on the other hand, costs are constantly rising, consumer power is limited, and the commercial model of extreme cost performance has begun to feel pressure.

The prospectus shows that the revenue of Mingchuang Youpin's fiscal year 2019-2021 (July 1, 2018-June 30, 2021) was 9.39 billion yuan, 8.98 billion yuan, and 9.07 billion yuan, respectively. 260 million yuan and 1.429 billion yuan (a substantial loss in fiscal 2021 is a loss formed by changes in the fair value of preferred shares); if the financial indicators of non -international financial reporting standards are recorded, the net profit has been adjusted by 840 million yuan, respectively. 930 million yuan and 480 million yuan. During the same period, the gross profit margin of the fiscal year of 2019-2021 was 26.7%, 30.4%, and 26.8%, respectively, and the gross profit margin of the 2020 and 2021 natural year was 26.7%and 29.3%, respectively.

It should be pointed out that in the past three years, famous and created products have continuously increased negative growth in the key indicators of measuring the retail industry, the revenue of a single store. According to the prospectus, fiscal year from 2019 to 2020 (July 1, 2018-June 30, 2020), the revenue of famous Singyou stores dropped from 2.7 million yuan to 2.2 million yuan, a decrease of 19.8%. As of June 30, 2021 (July 1, 2020 to June 30, 2021), the revenue of the group's single store continued to fall to 1.9 million yuan, a decrease of 11.3%.

The prices of famous and innocent products that have been cost -effective routes are relatively close to the people. The price of goods is basically between 5 yuan and 50 yuan. It seems not easy to increase revenue by increasing the price of product in the short term. Merchant profits.

Previously, Mingchuang Youpin had paid the book with supplier Ying Terry Technology Co., Ltd. During the second instance, the evidence provided by Mingchuang Youpin showed to the supplier on March 20, 2020 that "Affected by the epidemic, many foreign gates and ports have been closed, and customers (franchisees) are willing to get goods for goods. High, the goods cannot be out, which causes the company's warehouse to have a lot of stocks, and the inventory pressure is very high. It is hoped that the supplier can give support and understanding. "

Inventory is the main part of the current sales cost of Famous and Chuangyou. According to the prospectus, the proportion of inventory costs of well -being of Chuangyou in recent years accounted for more than 98%of sales costs, or even 100%. In fiscal year 2019-2021 (July 1, 2018-June 30, 2021), the inventory assets of Mingchuang Youpin were 1.309 billion yuan, 1.396 billion yuan, and 1.496 billion yuan, respectively, showing a trend of year-on-year increase.

The method of clearing the position of the inventory is mainly based on the store and the promotion of the store. Under the premise of the unchanged supply system, how to better alleviate inventory pressure in the future, deal with the relationship with suppliers, and balance the relationship between the gross profit margin and cost -effectiveness of the company is a problem that the famous products need to be solved. The speed of opening the store slows down

The prospectus shows that as of December 31, 2021, Mingchuang Youpin has more than 5,000 stores worldwide, of which 3,168 are domestic and 1877 abroad. There are three main types of store business models, namely the three types: famous partnership model, agency mode, and direct business model. In China, Mingchuang Youpin mainly depends on the expansion of the Mingchuang partnership model (that is, the franchise mode).

On August 4, the reporter visited a well -known Chuangyou franchise store in Pingxiang City, Jiangxi Province. The manager revealed to reporters that franchisees generally need to bear store opening and operating costs, such as brand use fees, store rents, decoration fees, employee salary and business and commerce Taxation, etc. In addition, franchisees also need to pay the brand's use fee of 80,000 yuan (paid annual) and a deposit of 750,000 yuan. Mingchuang Youpin provides assistance services for the operation and management of the store, such as employee training and the formulation of management regulations, and is responsible for the supply and management of goods.

According to the agreement between the two parties, the income of the franchisee is 38%of the previous day's turnover (33%of the food). In the early days, the market dividends were still in the early days of the establishment of the brand, and it was not difficult to return to the original to make money. However, as the number of stores increased and the industry competition was increasing, the stores that joined later did not have imagined.

In the first few years, the expansion speed of Mingchuang Youpin was very fast. According to public information, in 2013, there were only 27 Mingyin Youpin stores; in 2014, the number of stores opened to 373; in 2015, it increased to 1075; 3600.

However, starting from Q3 (January 2020) 2020, the growth rate of famous domestic and foreign stores at home and abroad has slowed simultaneously. In terms of quarterly, from the first to the fourth quarter of 2021 (July-September, 2020, 2020-December, January-March, 2021, and April 2021) , 162, 122, and 133, all of which were newly added in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2020 (April 2020). From the fiscal year, fiscal 2020 (July 1, 2019-June 30, 2020) and fiscal 2021 (July 1, 2020-June 30, 2021), Mingchuang Youpin will be newly opened every year The stores are 497 and 527, respectively, which is significantly slowed down from the previous 700 expansion.

From the perspective of the group, it values ​​the GMV of the entire brand, so the more the number of stores, the more beneficial it is, and the franchisee actually undertakes most of the operating risks. The decline in the revenue of single stores affects the willingness of the franchisee to open the store.

From the perspective of sales channels, more than 90%of the revenue of Mingchuang Youpin comes from offline. Under the circumstances that the cost of artificial, rent, and raw materials is rising, the cost of opening a store for franchisees is increasingly high, but the growth rate of revenue is far from keeping up. Youpin's profitability has a impact.

From the perspective of revenue composition, the revenue of Mingchuang Youpin mainly comes from commodity sales revenue (accounting for about 90%), as well as "authorization fees, franchise fees for basic sales, management and consulting service fees for basic sales" " Two parts. The decline in store revenue directly affects the sales of Mingyin Youpin. The slowdown in the number of new stores also affects the income of the cost of authorization and service fee at the same time.

In the overseas market, the speed of opening the store has slowed down simultaneously. Mingchuang Youpin is mainly based on agency stores overseas. FY 2019-2021 fiscal year (July 1, 2018-June 30, 2021) company net new agent stores, 199, 114; 2020, 2020, 2020, 2020, 2020, 2020, 2020, 2020, 2020, 2020, 2020, 2020, 2020, 2020, 2020, 2020, 2020, 2020, 2020, 2020, 2020, 2020, 2020, 2020, 2020, 2020, 2020, 2020, 2020, 2020, 2020, 2020, 2020, and 2020, and 2020, and 2020. In 2021, 73 and 50 proxy stores have been added in overseas markets, respectively, all of which have decreased year by year.

A former employee who had been responsible for overseas expansion told reporters that in the past few years, the famous overseas stores were very fierce. 365 days a year had to run the market abroad almost every day. Affected, I had to press the "brake keys".

In addition, the agency mode of Mingchuang Youpin in overseas has also brought a lot of hidden concerns to the company. In this model, after the goods are sold to the agent, the ownership of the agent belongs to the store management and operations, and even publicity and promotion. The recent Spanish agency turning incident is a force. Although the famous and created cooperative relationship of the agent will be processed for the first time, the incident still has a negative impact on the company.

Before that in March 2020, 63 Canadian franchisees filed a lawsuit against the famous Capital Against Canadian agent who promised investors' profits and investors.

According to the prospectus, 22, 14 and 140 stores in Famous Chuang Overseas Stores, Partners Stores and Agency Stores were closed in 2021. In the agency mode, problems such as clustering and incomplete quality are exposed from time to time, and the overseas expansion of famous and innocent products has undoubtedly increased a lot of resistance.

How to break the game?

After the double listing, Mingchuang Youpin further attracted the attention of investors. Copy for the first short sniper, it is not ruled out that there is still a second time. Each crisis eruption is like a mirror, which exposure the company's shortcomings in business management. Right now, everyone is not only concerned about the performance data of famous and innocent products, but also whether the company's business model can last, whether the internal management is standardized, and whether there are prospects in the future. In February last year, Ye Guofu officially announced that the company launched the "X-Strategy", committed to achieving diversification of business, hoping to become a new retail platform that can hatch more sub-brands. Prior to this, Mingchuang Youpin has launched TOP TOY, Wow Colour, etc. However, the development of the sub -brand is not ideal.

According to public reports, the WOW Colour store has shrank from the highest peak to 136 today. TOP TOY, which is regarded as the second growth curve, has revenue of 110 million yuan in the first quarter of March 31, 2022, accounting for only 4.7%of the total revenue of Famous Chuangyin Group. In terms of the number of stores, as of the end of the quarter, there were 92 TOP TOY stores, and only 3 stores were opened in the first quarter of this year.

Diversity frustration has allowed Ye Guofu to re -adjust his strategy. At the Hong Kong stock marketing media communication meeting held on July 13, Ye Guofu told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that the group will focus on the development of two brands of Fame and Chuangyou and TOP TOY, emphasizing that "cost -effectiveness" and "interest consumption consumption consumption consumption consumption consumption consumption "Grab both hands and continue to enhance product design and development capabilities and increase added value on the basis of adhering to high cost performance.

The reporter noticed that, in addition to increasing IP cooperation, in the past year, many blind box products have been added in the stores of Mingchuang Youpin. The pricing is between 15-60 yuan. , But there are actually many products on the market.

In the context of the normalization of the epidemic prevention and control, the number of stores in first- and second -tier cities has become increasingly saturated and the offline passenger flow has weakened. Mingchuang Youpin has begun to focus on three or fourth -tier cities to sink the market. "Domestic first -tier and second -tier cities are still affected by the epidemic, so we put the focus of expansion to cities below the third tier." Previously, Zhang Saiyin, the executive vice president and chief financial officer of Mingchuang Youpin, said.

Famous and Chuangyou Franchise Stores in Pingxiang are one of the typical representatives of the low -line market stores in Zhang Syin. The store decoration style adopts the latest generation of famous innovation. In the middle of the background board of the door of the door, there are two Chinese and English logo printed on the red bag. The lower right corner is the latest advertising slogan "Lightning the Global 99 Beauty Life". About 180 square meters of stores are placed in daily necessities, clothing, tide play, beauty products and other products. More importantly, there are no similar competitors in the nearby business district.

At 7 pm on August 4th, in Pingxiang's famous stores, about thirty customers were all young people in their early 20s, and their passenger flows could reach 40 or fifty people within an hour. Pingxiang Store Director told reporters that the average unit price of the store is about 40 yuan. In her opinion, the biggest attraction of famous fame to young people in the town is "extremely high cost performance".

Right now, how to make consumers accept higher premium products is still a big problem for Ye Guofu. According to Ye Guofu, Mingchuang Youpin has begun to reduce SKU, focusing on products that can attract consumers' interest, cut off some products that are difficult to make emotional value. "At present, hundreds of SKUs have been reduced." He said.

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