New signals of monetary policy execution reports Release new signals

Reporter Liu Qi

A few days ago, the People's Bank of China (hereinafter referred to as the "central bank") released the "Implementation Report of the China Monetary Policy in the Second quarter of 2022" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report"). "Securities Daily" reporter noticed that the central bank deleted the expression of "guiding market interest rates around policy interest rate fluctuations" in this "Report", which was the first time since the implementation of China's monetary policy in the second quarter of 2020.

At the same time, the central bank explained the changes in the volume of reverse repurchase operations since the second quarter in the "Report". "" Due to sufficient funds for the currency market, the first -level dealers' demand for public market reverse repurchase operations since the second quarter of the second quarter has overall the overall market business. It has decreased, and the People's Bank of China flexibly adjusts the scale of open market operations in accordance with market demand to further improve operational flexibility and accuracy. "

In fact, since April this year, the market capital has continued to relax. Except for the monthly point of time, the capital interest rate has maintained a low level of operation. Judging from the recent DR007 (7 -day pledge repurchase interest rate of bank deposit financial institutions), its weighted average interest rates have been below 1.43%since August, far lower than the current 7 -day reverse repurchase interest rate (2.1%2.1% To.

Zhang Yu, the assistant to the director and chief macro analyst of the Institute of Huachuang Securities Research Institute, believes that although the "Report" deletes the expression of "guiding market interest rates around policy interest rate fluctuations", this is in the current DR007 and 7 -day reverse repurchase interest rate gap gaps. Under the background. Considering that the central bank emphasizes that "since the second quarter of 2022, the public market's 7 -day reverse repurchase and mid -term borrowing convenience (MLF) have remained unchanged, which helps to raise interest rates in major central banks around the world. "Internal and external equilibrium", the market interest rate represented by DR007 is still a high probability event.

"In the environment where the initial liquidity is very abundant, the interest rate of the currency market continues to operate in the low level, bringing repurchase leverage to rising rapidly. Since early August, R001's daily transaction volume has exceeded 6 trillion yuan, and the high leverage rate will amplify the funds. The risk of interest rate fluctuations. To this end, the central bank proposed 'in -depth research and judging the liquidity supply and demand status of the banking system, improving the forward -looking, flexibility and effectiveness of the operation, and stabilizing the market expectations'. "Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank," According to the Securities Daily, the reporter said that on the basis of the continuous low -volume operation of inverse repurchases in the early stage, MLF will be slightly reduced in August, the marginal release signal will be released, and the MLF operation in the subsequent month will continue to return the cage. Interest rates converge to policy interest rates.

Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Everbright Bank Financial Market Department, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that in the later period, the factors that affect the funding surface are also constantly changing. Flexible hedging.

"In the near future, the market interest rate has maintained a low position and abundant liquidity is slightly more environmentally, and the central bank will continue to maintain a small amount of reverse repurchase." Zhou Maohua predicts that the central bank will cooperate with other policies to implement Difficulty and stable growth policies, make good use of structural tools, increase the support of weak economic links and key areas. While optimizing the allocation of resource allocation, it can unblock monetary policy transmission and accelerate the release of policy dividends.

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