Focus on focus | Freight will maintain a decline?

Recently, the Shanghai Airlines Stock Exchange announced the latest SCFI index continued to fall from 148.13 points to 3739.72 points, a decline of 3.81%, rewriting new lows since mid -June last year, and the four long -range routes fell simultaneously, of which the European and American West lines expanded.

Public data shows that after the end of March last year, the market freight rate continued to rise. After the overall rising of the container freight rate rose from the end of April to early June this year, it entered the fall range again. At the level below 5%.

Huatai Securities released a research report stating that container transportation, as an important carrier of global trade, is directly affected by the consumer demand in Europe and the United States. Looking forward to the second half of the year and 2023, the freight rate will maintain a decline, but it will still be higher than the pre -epidemic level.

The shipping price of the route fell as a whole

Throughout the first half of 2022, the market prices from Shanghai to the United States showed a cloud of overcast prices, and even the current market price fell below the long -term cooperative price. According to market rumors, the owners have proposed the price of the long -term association with the freight forwarding.

The available replacement said: "Many long -term associations are signed at the end of last year and early this year. At that time, the market was hot and the freight rate was high. For example, last year, the US route price was the highest to 20,000 US dollars/Feu, but it is about to fall below $ 7,000. /FEU, the European route is also expected to fall below $ 10,000/Feu, and this is already lower than the long -term coordination price signed before some cargo owners. "

Data from the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) shows that in the first half of 2022, the average NCFI integrated index was 3708.5 points, a 6.1%decrease from the second half of 2021. By July 1, 2022, the NCFI Comprehensive Index had fallen year -on -year, and the year -on -year decline expanded.

At the same time, the Ningbo Shipping Exchange analyzed that although the freight rate of major international routes in the first half of 2022 rose to varying degrees compared with the same period of 2021, most of them fell significantly compared with the second half of 2021. Among them, the market of 40 feet in European routes fell 15.6%from the second half of 2021 in the first half of 2022. At the end of June, the market freight price fell 29.4%compared with the end of December 2021. As of the end of June 2022, the North American market, East, American West, and West. The market price of the 40 -foot bonus box of the route fell by 49.1%and 59.5%from the price increase at the end of December 2021; as of the end of June 2022, the market freight price fell by 39.7%from the end of June 2022, respectively. , 43.4%.

Frequent transportation of Asia to North America and Europe

Some market research pointed out that container transportation, as an important carrier of global trade, is directly affected by the consumer demand in the European and American markets. Factors such as high energy prices, rising inflation, and geopolitical conflicts continue to affect European and American consumer confidence and consumer needs; overseas epidemic control and control, consumer expenditure shifts from consumer goods to service industry, further lowering the demand for transportation; The impact on emerging economies will also gradually be interpreted. Coupled with the relief of port congestion, these have led to the weakening trend of collecting freight rates since this year.

In addition, the proportion of currently holding orders for container ships has increased to 28%. The market is concerned that this will bring serious excess capacity issues and affect the future trend of freight rates.

Huatai Securities Research Report pointed out that in the first half of this year, European inflation was high, and the amount of goods decreased year -on -year; and the growth of US goods was weak, and the amount of goods began in the third quarter was obviously weakened. It is expected that the global container transportation volume in 2022 increases by 0.2%year -on -year, of which the transportation volume of Asia to North America, Asia to Europe decreased by 1.7%and 4.1%year -on -year; the amount of goods in Asia is expected to increase by 3.1%year -on -year. Most of them are raw materials or semi -finished products in region, and the RCEP trade agreement takes effect to promote regional trade activities.

The research report believes that in 2023, the geographical conflict and the economic downturn in the European and American economy still constitute a large uncertain factors in demand. It is estimated that the number of global transportation in 2023 will increase by 2.0%year -on -year, of which the volume in Asia to North America, Asia to Europe, and Asia increases by 0.2%/1.0%/3.0%year -on -year.

Multiple factors common effects on the market outlook

In addition to the impact of the demand side and capacity supply supply on freight rates, the operating strategy of the liner company, the requirements of international maritime organization carbon emission reduction requirements, and the supply chain layout of multinational companies will bring more uncertainty to the shipping market.

Qian Hanglu, an analyst at the Ningbo Transport Exchange, said that in order to suppress the speed of freight rates and ensure returns, the liner company has adopted and will have long -term use of the means of adjusting capacity. According to the shipping period data: From June to July 2022, the liner company suspended 114 voyages, 36 voyages, 24 voyages, and 22 voyages in Asia -West, Asia -East, Asia -Nordic, Asia -Asia. The total number of suspension was about 2.8 times the same period last year.

International maritime organization carbon emission reduction requirements will also affect freight rates. Because, in order to achieve carbon emission reduction targets, ships may be required to modify or are required to reduce the speed of the ship, which may lead to a longer range time, leading to a decrease in the turnover efficiency of the transportation; Consignant.

Sudden factors such as epidemic and Russia and Ukraine conflicts have led to multinational companies attach more importance to the security of supply chain, and tend to change from a single supply chain from efficient supremacy to diversified and N+1 supply chain system. The United States, the European Union, and Japan all announced the diversification of the supply chain in 2021. Many multinational companies that used China as the main suppliers in the past have also begun to plan part of the production capacity in the nearby Southeast Asian countries. In addition, the congested ports overseas may have deteriorated due to the recent frequent strike problems, or they may become a large supporting factors that have maintained high or temporary increase in the freight rate of some routes. Because in addition to the failure of the West West Wharf, there are also intimidating strikes, including the ports in Asia and Europe. For example, the first strike in the 30 years of the largest Hong Kong port burger in Germany. As a result, it still needs to be observed.

(Comprehensive Self -Tong Finance Network, China Aviation Weekly, International Ship Network, Securities Daily, China Water Transport Client)

Source: China Water Transport Network

Author: Comprehensive collation

Responsible editor: Yin Yulong

Review: Hongbo

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