The IPO of Guofei Wine Industry brings a chain response: panic selling dealers' panic, retail price upside down?

This article is based on public information, which is used only as information exchange and does not constitute any investment advice.

Production/company research room wine industry group

Text/Huai Liangyue

In recent years, the hot sauce has spawned a group of star companies, and the national Taiwan wine industry is a more striking family. Back to the dealer network of Task (600535.SH) listed pharmaceutical companies (600535.SH), the revenue of Guotai Wine Industry exceeded 10 billion in the early 500 million, staged a rare "Great Leap Forward" in the liquor circle.

Public data shows that from 2017 to 2020, the national wine industry achieved total revenue of 573 million, 1.177 billion yuan, 1.888 billion, and 4.05 billion. At the "2022 National Dealer Congress" held on January 9, the National Taiwan Wine Industry disclosed that the company's 2021 tax sales jumped to 10 billion yuan.

However, the sound of high -profile announcement of sales of over 10 billion yuan has just fallen, and the contradiction between the national wine industry and some dealers broke out. In March, the two sides made a noise of the dignitaries. It is reported that in June and July, the senior management of the National Taiwan Wine Industry conducted two dense visits. In 20 cities, nearly 200 dealers visited and opened more than a dozen talks ... However, all this does not seem to have no seemingly no. In exchange for dealers' understanding.

01 Behind the performance of the performance: use IPO as a bait, and the dealer stocks a lot after the shares are stocking

Everyone in the circle knows that liquor manufacturers and dealers are the relationship between fish and water. Both parties seek wealth together, and no one can do without anyone. Of course, if the relationship is handled well, it is not surprising that the phenomenon of guest bullying shops and shops. In recent years, how to deal with the relationship between manufacturers has always tested the ability and determination of each liquor company management. So, what happened between Guofei Wine Industry and dealers, so that the relationship between the two parties was so nervous?

According to the official website, Guizhou Guotai Wine Industry is based on the acquisition of a old -fashioned winery in Maotai Town in 1999. After more than 20 years, it has accumulated a total of 5 billion yuan of brewing companies. Taiwan Winery, Guotai Huaijiu, and Guofeng Maoyuan four production bases have more than 10,000 tons of sauce -flavored white wine, and the annual wine is more than 50,000 tons.

Before 2017, although the revenue of Guotai wine was also increasing, it was not shocked in the entire liquor circle. Public information shows that the revenue of Guotai wine industry in 2016 was only 361 million yuan. Since 2017, the revenue of Guogai Wine Industry has begun to soar. In 5 years, it has achieved more than 10 billion from 573 million. The world can't help curious. The revenue of Guofei wine suddenly soared. What kind of tricks did they use?

An industry insider told the company's research office that "In fact, it is not unusual to say that it is a bait, and the" equity incentive, manufacturer alliance '"attracts a large number of dealers to share the sales performance and help the company sprint the IPO IPO ","

This statement is clearly reflected in the prospectus released by the National Taiwan Wine Industry.

The prospectus shows that among the top five dealers in Guofeng Wine Industry in 2019, the first place is the company's company, Tazhi, a company, and the rest are major merchants in various places. Guangdong Yueqiang Liquor and its related companies, which are second in dealers, have sold 90.709 million yuan, 44.815 million yuan, and 71.731 million yuan in 2017-2019, respectively, accounting for 1.61%, 3.84%, and 3.84%, and 3.84%, and respectively. 3.84%.

It is worth noting that Guangdong Yueqiang indirectly holds more than 1%of the State Wine Industry. There are still 102 dealers who hold the Guozhai Wine Industry Co., Ltd. at the same time as Guangdong Yueqiang Liquor. Industry shares.

From 2017 to 2019, the total sales amount contributed by these 102 dealers was 272 million yuan, 546 million yuan, and 605 million yuan, respectively, accounting for 4836%, 46.84%, and 32.35%of the current operating income. This relationship with dealers in depth has undoubtedly brought great motivation to the sales of Guofei Wine Industry, which is an important reason for its performance.

The above -mentioned insiders admitted that this kind of gameplay has previously played a state -owned liquor giant, but it is bound to major merchants in various places through the form of additional development. The more dealers sell wine, the better the company's performance, and the stock price naturally rises. Therefore, these big merchants, instead of selling wine, are worse than stock trading. Sometimes, the value -added income of stocks is much more earned than selling wine.

02 Revenue 5 years increased by 2024%: Worried about thunderstorms after listing, Guotai Wine Industry actively withdrew the IPO

The prospectus shows that from 2017 to 2019, the National Taiwan Wine Industry achieved revenue of 573 million yuan, 1.177 billion yuan, 1.888 billion yuan, and net profit of 47 million yuan, 240 million yuan, and 410 million yuan, respectively. Roughly calculated that in the past three years, the cumulative revenue of the National Taiwan Wine Industry exceeded 3.6 billion yuan, and the net profit growth was close to or exceeded 100%. Especially in 2018, the revenue and net profit of Guofei Wine Industry have skyrocketed, an increase of 105%and 410%, respectively.

Surprisingly, this kind of Cyclonus has not until 2019. Public data shows that the revenue before the 2021 National Taiwan wine tax reached 11.6 billion. Compared with 2017, an increase of 2024%. Some investors questioned that this sudden outbreak of performance seemed to deliberately fertilize for listing.

A person in the circle said, "The brand's brand has been promoted for 4 years, and why does the performance grow so fast? Is it necessary for a cattle to endorse? The most fundamental reason is that the listing expectations. Driven by the marketing expectations, these are promoted by listing. The shareholders have placed orders to stock up and gang Guotai's performance. For dealers, the cash of the liquor liquor has increased by the stock market value after the IPO listing. It comes from cross -bank. Without the experience of the wine industry, it is a group of people playing capital. These people do not know how to sell wine at all, so they have laid the hidden dangers of the terminal market for sale. "In addition, in the past few years Prices at almost every year. "For a year, a piece of wine will earn 300 yuan. The dealer can get the enthusiasm for getting the money and get the goods."

Take the stock, take the goods, the wine, appreciate. This is the core logic of Guofei wine that can explode in the past few years.

Another insider said: "More than one wine company has worked like this. Previously, Jin Hui Wine (603919.SH) was investigated by the media. There is no real consumption, but when the IPO can sell a good price; the performance will often fall continuously after the launch. The shareholders who took the board were suffering heavy losses! "

The issue of dealers talked about by the inside of the circle is actually the affiliated transaction that many people are worried about, and it is also the key issue of repeated attention to the trial committee in the IPO of Guogai Wine Industry. Just when people are looking forward to the relevant intermediary agencies that are listed on the market, and provide a more informative explanation of the business exchanges between Guotai Wine Industry and agents and related financial and tax statements, in June 2021, in June 2021, Guofei Wine Industry suddenly took the initiative to withdraw the IPO application.

Regarding the sudden withdrawal of IPO applications, Guofei Wine Industry said that this is because the company's rapid development, restarting listing can expand the scale of fundraising. However, the above -mentioned people said that "the IPO of Guofei Wine is to not mine." He said that Guofei Wine Industry knows the affiliated transactions in revenue. If you bring the thunder to the market, you will not be able to eat it.

03IPO suspension of chain reaction: panic selling sales of shares and dealers, which leads to the inverted price of the retail terminal

In June 2021, the National Taiwan Liquor Industry took the initiative to withdraw the IPO. This trick made the dealers who invested in the National Taiwan wine industry suddenly circled, and the listing expectations of listing suddenly fell. "These shareholders themselves are playing capital themselves. They have a lot of goods in their hands and occupy too much liquidity. They will inevitably sell large -scale selling and realization. Some dealers revealed this.

When deciding to suspend the IPO, it is estimated that the senior officials of Guotai Wine Industry did not expect that the chain reaction would be so large. At that time, the company's actual controllers were soothing the market. They stated that they restarted the listing process in November of that year, but the dealers were bitten by snakes and were afraid of well rope for ten years.

"With the continuous failure of the IPO of the National Taiwan IPO, after a few years, the dealer's inventory capacity is insufficient, the inventory has been stamped, and the sales of the sales. The inverse will cause dealers to worry about the depreciation of the goods and panic. "Zhu Danpeng, vice president of the Guangdong Food Safety Promotion Association, said in an interview with the media.

Some senior practitioners revealed to the media that when the capital of Guogai Liquor increased its capital and expansion, it was also an increased issue. The initial shareholders and dealers were basically dealers of Task Pharmaceutical. The market channeling has led to the backlog of traditional dealers inventory.

Different benefits from the price of the dealer's goods are rising. When the company's price increases, everyone can enjoy it because of the annual price increase of the company, and it can also be fine. When the sauce was tide and the price of Guofei wine rose could not rise, the disadvantages were exposed at once.

Public information shows that the shareholders of the Guofei Wine Industry have contributed 2.93 million yuan in revenue in 2017, and in 2019, the average annual sales of 6.65 million yuan. In the first half of 2020, it contributed 5.56 million yuan in distribution revenue per capita. Head holders dealers, contributed a greater distribution amount. In the past, it was described as an example of Guangdong Balida Yueqiang Investment Co., Ltd., and its four dealers' sales amounts of sales of 84.95 million yuan from January to June 2020, accounting for 6.26%. In 2017, its sales amount was only 90.709 million yuan. These dealers have a huge amount of stocking. Once they are sold, the impact on the market can be imagined.

From the second half of 2021 to the first half of this year, the undulating new crown epidemic has completely broke the market rhythm of sauce wine. In the past few years, the foam that has been blowing over the past few years is instantly shattered, and sauce wine products cannot be sold. This situation is even more intensive to sell the national Taiwan wine holding dealers, and the large -scale "cut meat", which leads to the inverted price of the national Taiwan wine retail end.

In February 2022, a national Taiwan dealer revealed to the media, "Beginning in the 4th quarter of last year, the price of a national and Taiwan national standard wine had fallen to about 2,000 yuan. At present, it has fallen to 1800, which is equivalent to 300 yuan A bottle. However, the price of the dealer's goods is 349 yuan a bottle, that is, the current price has been seriously inverted. There is also a backlog of more than 1,500 pieces of national bids in my hand, and the inventory has floated 200,000. "

04 More than a dozen contests have not been understood: the old dealers have worries, and the new dealer has become a "leek" at a high level.

On August 11, the company's research room searched the Internet and found on Jiuxian.com that some merchants will promote 6 bottles of 53 degrees and Taiwan National standards at a price of 1769 yuan. Essence In this way, according to the price of 349 yuan/bottle, each bottle of dealers sell at least 50 yuan, so that it may not be sold.

Facing the inversion of prices, Guotai introduced the relevant reward policies and supplementary adjustments to resolve the dilemma of dealers.

However, the dealers are unwilling to buy it: "Guotai is willing to recover for 280 yuan, but we buy a price of 349 yuan. Merchants complained to the media.

At the end of 2021, the National Taiwan Wine Industry announced that in the next four years, it will "not increase, do not press the goods, do not increase the price, and not attract investment." However, after entering 2022, because of "not earning money", many merchants still quit the national Taiwan dealers, but there are also a large number of disputes, because of the return of profit, the bonus issuance at the end of the year, the shortage of some varieties of the national Taiwan wine, etc. The question, some dealers in March and the national Taiwan pair.

In early June and July, Zhang Chunxin, the general manager of Guogai Wine Industry, led a team to conduct two -wheeled market visits. As of the second round of surveys on July 13, it has successively visited more than 20 cities in Henan, Shandong, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, Jiangxi, Hubei, Shaanxi, Guizhou, and Sichuan. There were more than a dozen talks.

It is reported that these talks failed to dispel the concerns of dealers in various places: First, the overall liquor of liquor in the first half of the year, the huge social inventory, the industry in the second half of the year must be powerful, the purchase in summer is not a good time; The Taiwan and some dealers have their own words, and the complaints of the winery are arbitrarily modified the rules to lead to the cold cicada effect. Third, the country's wine production capacity is insufficient, some best -selling products cannot get the goods, and those who can get the goods are not easy to sell.

A China Merchants said to the media, "Guofei Wine announced that sales were 10 billion yuan in 2021. The official foreign data was 11.6 billion sales, which actually sold only 8.6 billion. This 8.6 billion also distributors also appeared in a large number of dealers. return the goods."

"The current market in Guofei is more serious than demands. Social inventory is very large. Everyone is throwing goods, causing new businesses to take over." A dealer admitted. Another dealer reflects: "After the new signing dealer got the goods, because the product could not be sold, it began to continue to withdraw the goods at a low price. After a batch of dealers withdrew The way of constantly recruit new dealers. "

This status quo is undoubtedly a vicious cycle. Zhu Danpeng told a media that Guofei put the interests of dealers aside. The end result was that the wine was sold, and the goal of 10 billion sales was achieved. However pressure. "Guozhong ignored it. If the national Taiwan is a giant wheel, dealers and channels are the water that supports the giant wheel."

Water can carry boats. It is reported that at the beginning of the year, the target of the 2022 revenue was set at 11.5 billion (including tax). From the current situation, because of the chaos of the distribution system, it may be a bit difficult to achieve this goal this year.

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