Li Yujia columns 丨 Use enough policy toolboxes to promote the healthy development of the real estate market and a virtuous cycle

Li Yujia (chief researcher at the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Urban Regulations)

A few days ago, the central bank issued a report on the implementation of monetary policy in the second quarter of 2022 (hereinafter referred to as the "Report"). Regarding real estate, the report pointed out that "firmly adheres to the positioning of the house to live, not for speculation, insist on not using real estate as a means of short -term stimulation economy, and insist on stable price, stable house prices, and stable expectations. A good policy tool box, support rigid and improved housing demand, stably implement real estate and financial prudential management systems, and promote the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate market. "

This statement is in line with the statement of the Central Political Bureau meeting on July 28, and emphasizes "stability" even more. This contains two layers of meaning: on the one hand, increase its efforts to support rigidity and improve the demand for housing, maintain the overall stability of the real estate industry and market operation, and do not rise and fall. According to the data disclosed, the mortgage interest rate of financial institutions in the second quarter of this year has declined sharply to 4.62%, a new low since June 2017.

On the other hand, the Central Political Bureau meeting on July 28 placed real estate in the expression of "risk prevention". Therefore, how to deal with risks in the second half of the year and avoid the spread of the people's livelihood and financial fields, and keeping the bottom line that does not occur without systemic risks will be an important tone of monetary policy. Based on this, the report clearly states that strengthening the construction of financial rule of law, taking the formation of the financial stability law and establishing a financial stability guarantee fund as an opportunity, further streamlined and improved the long -term mechanism of prevention, resolution, and disposal of financial risks to promote the marketization of the disposal mechanism and the rule of law. Normal. Improve the accountability mechanism of financial risks, take accountability of major financial risks, and effectively prevent moral risks.

This means that the disposal of real estate financial risks is developing a long -term mechanism and top -level design, including the bailout fund, which is an important component of financial stability funds. We believe that it also includes options such as mergers and acquisitions loans, asset reorganization, state -owned enterprise or urban head platform. However, the disposal of all risk real estate companies or projects is based on marketization and rule of law as the first principle to prevent the occurrence of moral risks, and to account for accountability and punishment for financial institutions that violate business violations in the process of disposal risks.

The report also pointed out that the risks of key areas are closely paying close attention to the policy of "stabilizing the overall situation, coordinating coordination, classification of policies, and accurate bomb demolition" to prevent the work of preventing and resolving financial risks. As far as the risk of real estate, this means that the overall situation is the principle of guidance, and the emotional panic from the real estate field to the financial market must not occur, or even the faith collapse; coordinating coordination refers to Form a group of coordination and linkage to jointly promote risk disposal and "guarantee transmission buildings"; the classification policy refers to the large principles of the top -level design, in response to risk disposal, supporting reasonable demand for house purchase, etc. "One city and one strategy" "one project, one policy"; precise bomb demolition is to adopt targeted measures to maximize the risk of the group's enterprises, to minimize the risk of the project project. The preview of reserves controls the risk of incremental projects in the bud state.

Because the city's policy was used to use the policy tool box, the Central Political Bureau meeting on July 28 also made clear instructions. At present, the policy reserves in the policy tools in various places are mainly in terms of real estate market regulation, and for risk disposal, project receiving mergers and acquisitions, insurance diplomatic relations, etc., need to do the corresponding work, and the main responsibility of the local body needs to be consolidated. The focus is on the use of policy boxes for urban strategies, which mainly refers to two aspects. One is that when the local government should implement differentiated credit policies (down payment ratio and interest rate level), people's banks must support rigid and improved housing in various places. Demand must also promote the adjustment and optimization of the credit structure, improve the effective support of the real economy, and prevent the occurrence of real estate risks. Requires to increase the innovation and application of the corresponding tools.

In terms of the expression of monetary policy in the next step, the report emphasizes the general tone and requirements of the work that "take into account short -term and long -term, economic growth and stable price, internal equilibrium and external balance", and add the expression of "not over -issuing currency". It reflects that under the background of accelerating the tightening of liquidity and rising domestic inflation pressure in the West, the policy focuses on pursuing balance. This means that the current loose and abundant liquidity may be difficult to add. Based on this, it is impossible to expect substantially loose liquidity to rescue real estate.

According to the central bank's report, the interest rate of personal housing loans in the second quarter has declined sharply, and it has fallen to a new low -stage low. It shows that the credit environment is no longer the main constraint of real estate demand. In the new period of balance, the contradiction between the supply of commercial housing and the rise in the demand for new citizens' security housing, the contradiction between high house prices and insufficient purchasing power of new citizens. These structural problems are difficult to cover the monetary policies that solve the problem of total demand.

Therefore, what the central bank can do is to continue to reduce the medium and long -term LPR, support rigid and improved housing demand with lower threshold and loan costs, promote a certain degree of activity in the industry, maintain "three stability" while reducing risk disposal The pain. In the middle and long term, funds are unlikely to enter real estate on a large scale. The central bank pointed out in the report column "The Evolution and Trend of the Credit Structure in recent years" that with the evolution of the long -term trend of the long -term real estate cycle with the margin of the urbanization process, the credit growth may be in the process of changing the gear and financing structure of the new and old kinetic energy and financing structure adjustment process. Falling, but this is a reflection of adapting the economy to enter the new normal, which does not mean that financial support for the real economy has weakened. The possibility of large -scale credit to support traditional industries such as old infrastructure and real estate is relatively small, and it is an inevitable trend to rise in the field of real estate. From the perspective of credit demand, compared with the end of 2019 in the first half of 2022, the proportion of loans in emerging industries and manufacturing has rebounded, and the credit demand in the densely -intensive fields such as "iron cocks" and other funding in infrastructure and real estate decreased. Therefore, the financial support for real estate is based on the integrated balance of industry development (consideration of people's livelihood considerations under the orientation of residential attributes), fast prevention risks, and the overall industry stability of the industry.

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