Worried about economic prospects to cause international oil prices to fluctuate and fall

In the past two months, international crude oil futures prices have shocked. The main contract price of New York crude oil futures has fallen from more than 120 US dollars per barrel to about $ 90 per barrel, and has fallen to the level before the Ukrainian crisis. London's Brent crude oil futures prices also show similar trends.

Why does international oil prices continue? The August Monthly Petroleum Market Report released by the International Energy Agency showed that the increase in crude oil supply and market concerns about the world's economic prospects is the main reason why international oil prices are significantly recovered from the peak in June this year.

The report believes that since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, the degree of reduction in Russia's crude oil supply is less than expected. Although the scale of oil and gas exports in developed countries such as Europe and the United States has decreased, the exports of India, Turkey and other countries and Russia have increased, and some of them have reduced global Scope crude oil supply is tight.

At the same time, the market is generally not optimistic about the recent world economic prospects, especially the economic trend of developed countries. According to data recently released by the Market Analysis Institution, the World Society of Large -scale Enterprises Research shows that as the level of inflation has continued to remain high, American consumers are more pessimistic about economic prospects. The lowest value since the month.

The UBS analysis shows that the market is not optimistic about the prospects of world economic growth and the strengthening of US dollars. In the first half of the year, international oil prices were weakened due to geopolitical tension, limited production capacity, and insufficient investment. Once the world economy has declined, commodity prices, including international oil prices, may further fall.

However, some market participants have said that the release of the largest oil reserves in the history of the United States may end, which will end, becoming an uncertain factors affecting the trend of oil prices in the future. U.S. President Biden announced on March 31 that in the next six months, it will release 1 million barrels of oil from the US strategic oil reserves and release 180 million barrels to cumulative the situation of high supply and high oil prices.

At the same time, Russia's supply of oil and natural gas in Europe may be reduced, and the oil exporting country (OPEC) is difficult to increase the supply significantly, and international oil prices are expected to be supported. In addition, the comprehensive agreement of the Iranian nuclear issue restores the progress of performance negotiations, the impact of the Atlantic hurricane season on oil production, and the trend of the new crown epidemic may become uncertain factors affecting oil prices. (According to Xinhua News Agency)

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