The international oil price returned half a year ago. Experts said that it was conducive to the stable development of China's economy

Since the beginning of this year, international oil prices can be described as twists and turns. After the previous two waves, the international oil prices were now returning to the $ 90/barrel near March this year.

From the perspective of analysts, on the one hand, the weak expectations of the overseas market economy recovery exist, coupled with the growth expectations of crude oil supply, it will suppress the rise in oil prices to a certain extent; on the other hand, the current status of high inflation has favored the oil prices. In such a complex environment, the current international oil prices are a bit dilemma.

However, many analysts told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the operation of international oil prices is conducive to reducing costs in China's manufacturing industry and improving profit margins. It also has a certain positive stimulus effect on travel and consumption.

International oil prices returned to the level six months ago

At the beginning of March this year, the price of WTI crude oil was rapidly raised from under $ 90/barrel, rushing to $ 110.15/barrel in one fell swoop, and then fell quickly to nearly $ 85/barrel, and completed a wave of ups and downs in half a month. Then, the price of WTI crude oil shocked all the way, until June 8th reached a record high of $ 118.08/barrel. Since then, the price of WTI crude oil began to turn around. After August, it fell below the $ 90/barrel mark again, and returned to the level around February 15.

"The multi -and -short game of international oil prices is still continuing. The main contradiction is that on the one hand, the European energy supply crisis caused by geopolitical situations supports international oil prices; on the other hand, investors expressed concern about the weak overseas economic recovery. This will be. As a result, the demand side is far less than expected. "Liu Jiao, a researcher at the Energy Department of Huishang Futures Research Institute, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that the current international oil price rebound is greater. In addition, in the context of the Federal Reserve and the central bank's interest rate hikes, the monetary policies of various countries may accelerate the tightening, and the signs of slowing down the global economic growth have become more obvious. The market's concerns about economic prospects will further intensify the weak energy demand.

"Securities Daily" reporter learned that the recent decline in international macroeconomic data has adjusted the market's judgment of interest rate hikes. Some analysts believe that based on the decline in the US macroeconomic data, the Federal Reserve may have a slowdown in curbing inflation, and the intensity of interest rate hikes may have a greater impact on international oil prices.

Gu Yuan Futures Energy Chemical Industry Analyst Zhang Xiao told the Securities Daily that the US CPI data in July was landed, and the market's concerns about the continued rising data of American inflation data slowed down. In the context of the weakening of the US dollar index, crude oil The price is slightly boosted. However, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) crude oil inventory exceeded expectations, which has increased the market's concerns about crude oil demand. Correspondingly, the recent OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) showed a completely different attitude towards the adjustment of crude oil supply and demand. OPEC considers the pressure of the global economy, which reduces the expectations of crude oil demand for crude oil in the future; IEA is based on European high -temperature weather, which has raised the expectations of crude oil demand. At present, international oil prices are lingering near the $ 90/barrel barrier, mainly due to the restoration of crude oil demand and the rise in market risk appetite. Based on the short -term market uncertainties, there are still many factors. It is expected that under the multi -short game, short -term crude oil prices may maintain a narrow -amplifying vibration pattern.

It is conducive to the stable recovery of China's economy

The price of WTI crude oil futures wandering around the $ 90/barrel pass, reflecting the uncertainty of the market's expectations of crude oil demand. In the opinion of Tang Jianlin, a researcher at Jinxin Futures, with the successive announcement of macroeconomic data in July in major overseas economies, the market's expectations for the global economic recession will continue to ferment and cause concerns about crude oil demand. In addition, the high inflation of the US economy led to investors' expectations of the Fed's sharp interest rate hike in September, which also made the bulls of crude oil futures.

Tang Jianlin also said that if the US CPI data was lower than market expectations in July, the Fed's expectations of a sharp interest rate hike will slow down, and the possibility of soft landing in the US economy will increase accordingly. Recently, the European energy crisis has continued to ferment, IEA has raised global crude oil demand expectations, and the long -headed confidence of crude oil futures will also be restored. The main cause of international oil prices is the changes in the demand for crude oil. The focus of the short -term crude oil market should be returned to the product attributes. The expected swing may become the leading factor affecting the price of crude oil.

What impact will international oil prices operate on the Chinese economy? Many analysts believe that international oil price recovery is conducive to the stable recovery of China's economy and will have a positive effect on manufacturing, transportation and consumption.

"As the main demand country in global oil, China has a high degree of foreign dependence. The decline in international oil prices can reduce the cost of oil imports. For the domestic petrochemical industry, the cost can be continuously passed on to downstream terminal products; another In terms of domestic travel costs, it will also be reduced, and it will form a certain stimulus and drive role in consumer demand. "Liu Jiao believes that under the expectation of the current international crude oil supply growth, the superimposed market is less concerned about the recovery of major overseas economies. It is expected that short -term international oil prices will still maintain a weak operating pattern.

Zhang Xiao also believes that the decline in international oil prices will reduce import costs, which will have a positive impact on the operating costs of the Chinese economy, which is conducive to the steady development of the domestic economy. At present, in addition to the maintenance of domestic oil prices and international oil prices, the prices of fossil energy such as natural gas and coal have also maintained a stable trend.

"International oil prices will directly drive the downturn of domestic PPIs, reduce the cost of downstream manufacturing, and increase corporate profit space." Tang Jianlin believes that in the short term, the market for the market for crude oil in the second half of the year will fluctuate.From the perspective, with the slowdown of the global economic growth, the demand for crude oil may decline, and the expected existence of the increase in the supply side of the supply side is expected to continue to move down.Source: Securities Daily

Reporter: Wang Ning

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