MLF exceeded 10 basis points, and the mortgage interest rate can be reduced in synchronization.

Li Lei/Illustration

China Times (chinatimes.net.cn) reporter Liu Jia Beijing report

Policy interest rates have been thoroughly reduced, exceeding the market's general expectations.

On August 15th, the central bank announced that in order to maintain the banking system reasonable and abundant, today's 400 billion yuan intermediate borrowing convenience (MLF) operation (including the continuation of MLF expiration on August 16) and the public market of 2 billion yuan The inverse repurchase operation fully meets the needs of financial institutions.

However, the mid -term borrowing convenience (MLF) operation and the public market reverse repurchase operations decreased by 10 basis points, which were reduced to 2.75%and 2.00%, respectively.

Because 10 billion reverse repurchase and 600 billion MLF expired this week. Among them, there were 2 billion yuan 7 -day reverse repurchase due from Monday to Friday, while on Tuesday, 600 billion yuan MLF expired. Therefore, in August, MLF was "volume and price falling."

Market person analysis believes that the policy reduction in August shows that by reducing financing costs to stimulate the demand for the real economy financing, it is becoming an important point for the current policy.

"Double Downs" 10bp

Policy interest rate cuts have appeared in January this year. At that time, the winning interest rates of MLF operations and public market reverse repurchase operations decreased by 10 basis points, which were reduced to 2.85%and 2.10%, respectively.

After a lapse of July, reappearing policy rate cuts, they also dropped 10 basis points respectively. Among them, MLF operating interest rates fell to 2.75%, and the interest rate of reverse repurchase operations in the open market dropped to 2.00%.

"Beyond market expectations." Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, said that the interest rate of MLF operations and public market reverse repurchase operations in August said, " And focus on stabilizing the real estate financing chain to increase the wide credit transmission. At this time, the central bank needs to adopt a certain counter -cyclical adjustment measure to alleviate the situation of increasing economic downward pressure and boost market confidence. "

The central bank emphasized "vigilant structural inflation pressure" in the recently released cargo report. In this context, the policy interest rate was completely reduced, and everyone had never expected.

Dongfang Jincheng chief macro analyst Wang Qing reported on the "Huaxia Times" reporter that the reason for the selection of policy interest rates in August is that the recent macroeconomic restoration momentum is relatively slow, and monetary policy needs to be further developed. The outbreak of the epidemic has further looked up, and the downward pressure on the macroeconomic decline may be further increased. At the same time, the July financial data just released a few days ago shows that the scale of new credit and social integration has fallen sharply, and the year -on -year growth rate has also declined. The process reproduces twists and turns.

"Policy reduction and interest rate cuts in August fully show that the current monetary policy is based on steady growth. Domestic structural inflation pressure and overseas central bank tightening have not constituted a substantial obstacle to the domestic central bank's policy reduction." It also means that the current market liquidity in the abundant state will continue for a period of time. Next, the regulatory level will increase the assessment efforts and promote wide currency to wide credit transmission.

It is worth noting that the MLF gently shrunk by MLF for 200 billion yuan in August, which is actually "volume and price falling." Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Everbright Bank Financial Market Department, told the reporter of the Huaxia Times that this mainly releases the intention of the central bank to protect the real economy, stabilize currency and wide credit.

"Judging from the recently announced financial data, reflecting the current money supply is sufficient, and the central bank's shrinkage sequel MLF is stable to stabilize the currency supply. In addition, the market liquidity recently has led to a decline in market interest rates. Below the 1 -year MLF interest rate, it also weakens the organization's demand for MLF to a certain extent. "Zhou Maohua explained, but in July, financial data reflects the weak domestic physical financing demand. Costs stimulate the vitality of micro -subject, and promote steady recovery of consumption and investment.

The probability of 5 -year LPR reduction increases

The MLF interest rate is anchor as an LPR interest rate. People in the industry predict that the probability of LPR interest rates will increase this month.

Zhou Maohua pointed out that the demand for the real economy financing is weak, and the MLF interest rate will be reduced by the LPR interest rate this month to reduce the high probability of 10bp.

Wen Bin believes that compared with the pricing of 1 -year LPR, the probability of asymmetric lowering LPR more than 5 years is greater. In the current weak environment of housing-related loans, compared with the actual 7-9 % off interest rates in the past few years, the interest rate of mortgage loans still has a large decline. And the current 5-1YLPR curve spread is still 75bp, and the adjustment space still exists.

"At present, the level of 1.7%of the 1 -year LPR quotation is relatively low. It is lower, and even the pricing of some regular deposits will be inverted. "Wen Bin pointed out that in this case, if you continue to guide the 1 -year LPR reduction, it will easily exacerbate the arbitrage behavior of the enterprise and increase the risk of emptiness of funds. However, if the subsequent economic recovery is not as good as expected, the repair of consumption and investment continues to be weak, and the 1 -year LPR interest rate will still have room to reduce.

Wang Qing also holds the same view. He believes that the MLF interest rate in August means that the price of LPR quotation in the month has changed. In addition, the recent bank capital costs have also settled faster. There is no suspense in August LPR quotation. “考虑到近期楼市再度转冷，房贷市场向贷款方倾斜，我们判断不排除5年期LPR报价下调幅度超过10个基点的可能性。”关于后续资金面演变，周茂华表示，由于中美经济与The policy is in different cycles, and my country's monetary policy remains independent. Moderate domestic efforts to grow steadily, helping the real economy to accelerate recovery, which helps boost market optimistic expectations for the market. From the current domestic economic recovery, the overall market trend of policies and stock market valuations.

"The current MLF shrinkage not only has the meaning of policy signals, but even if the amount of shrinkage is reduced, the substantial impact on the capital surface is also limited." Wen Bin added that the overall monetary policy will remain loose and wait for economic and financial data changes. In the future, the future will really be true in the future. The core driving factor of reversing the trend of capital interest rates is still the formation of substantive wide credit.

Editor -in -chief: Meng Junlian Editor: Zhang Zhiwei

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