The central bank's shrinkage continues to do MLF and unexpectedly reduces interest rates by 10 basis points. Will the monetary policy change marginal changes?

The central bank shrinks on Monday to continuously make the mid -term borrowing facilities (MLF), and accidentally reduces the bid interest rate of MLF operations and open market reverse repurchase operations. Due to the 2 billion yuan reverse repurchase and 600 billion yuan MLF expired on the day, the net recovered was 2,000 billion yuan on that day.

The Central Bank announced that in order to maintain the liquidity of the banking system reasonable and abundant, it launched 400 billion yuan in mid -term loan convenience (MLF) operation (including the continuation of MLF expiration on August 16) and the 2 billion yuan open market background The purchase operation fully meets the needs of financial institutions.

MLF interest rate unexpectedly lowered 10 basis points, which greatly exceeded market expectations

Regarding this accident cut, Wang Yifeng, chief analyst of the Everbright Securities Financial Industry, told the Finance News Agency that the impact of overseas interest rate hikes on domestic monetary policy has declined. my country's monetary policy is still "mainly me". In addition, 7 Monthly macroeconomic data shows that the current pressure of domestic stable growth is still existing and requires a moderate response to counter -cyclical monetary policy.

Dongfang Jincheng chief macro analyst Wang Qing told the Finance News Agency that the MLF interest rate in August unexpectedly lowered 10 basis points (BP), or it was relatively slow with the recent economic restoration. The recycled twists and turns of the wide credit process showed that the current monetary policy is still still related to the current monetary policy. With steady growth as the main orientation, domestic structural inflation pressure and overseas central bank tightening have not constituted a substantial obstacle to the policy of domestic central banks. This also means that the current liquidity of market liquidity that is in abundant state will continue for a period of time.

The central bank's shrinkage continues to do MLF, but the liquidity may maintain a more abundant state

The current policy interest rate is much higher than the market interest rate. The 1 -year MLF interest rate after this decline was 2.75%, while the interest rate of state -owned joint -stock banks in the same period was only 2%, and the spread was still as high as nearly 80 basis points (BP). This part of high -cost liabilities, MLF shrinking in August, belongs to the bank's follow -up operation according to the market conditions.

In addition, the central bank's initiative to shrink MLF, which has further released signals that guide funds to return to normal level. The current funding surface is overly loose, and the OMO open market has fewer expirations, which makes the central bank appropriately with less tools for recovering funds. It is exactly that the MLF expires this month is large, which can meet the intention of increasing the funds of recovery.

Zhang Wei, chief fixed income analyst of Founder Securities, said that the total bonds in May to June have issued nearly 2 trillion yuan. These special debt funds will accelerate the expenditure from July to August and will bring support to the capital. In addition, the demand for physical financing is not strong, and the demand for house purchase and leverage in the residential department is still weak. In this environment, the MLF shrinkage of the substantial impact on the capital surface is controllable.

Wang Yifeng believes that the capital interest rate operation is due to the resonance of both ends of the assets and liabilities. Credit demand is low, financial allocation is accelerated, actual expenditure is slow, and the amount of funds has obvious accumulation. And there is a trend of further expansion, it is expected that liquidity will maintain a relatively abundant state for a period of time.

LPR quotation decreases the probability of increased probability

Market participants generally point out that the MLF interest rate in August means that the price of the price of the loan market quotation (LPR) quotation (LPR) in August has changed. In addition, the recent bank capital costs have also settled faster. It is expected that the probability of LPR quotation will increase in August.

Market participants pointed out that the daily transaction data of commercial housing since August shows that the sales of commercial housing are still weak. In order to maintain the steady and healthy development of real estate, local governments will continue to relax the property market policy due to urban policies in the future, with more than 5 years of LPR or more than 15bp or more.

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