Gold price or pressure before the Jackson Hall annual meeting

The annual meeting of the Global Central Bank of Jackson Hall will be held from August 25th to 27th. It is expected that the price of gold may face a new round of pressure before the meeting. The author believes that the central bank does not make suppression of gold prices, but to make corresponding expected management because of anxiety and rebound, and the price of gold is passively compressed.

01

The inflation crisis continues

In fact, there is a periodic factor in inflation back to softness in July. In addition to because of interest rate hikes and cooling, it also includes large US retail institutions in July inventory promotion. At the same time, US President Biden Bynden suppressed crude oil prices in July. Energy and commodity prices have continued to return to a low opportunity, that is, the risk of inflation and rebound does exist.

02

The possibility of rate cut rates next year is low

Inflation data must not have the opportunity to return to the policy target level in the fourth quarter of 2023. However, if the inflation decline in the next year is generally optimistic like July, it indicates that the US economy may enter a serious decline. If you do not avoid policy errors and cause economic recession, it takes longer to return to the level of policy goals.

If the market is over -speculating, inflation is topped, and the capital is pushing the capital to drive the price of the product to rebound, and the inflation is promoted again. Obviously, it is not expected by the central bank. The central bank's annual meeting is likely to negate the view of inflation and start paying interest rates next year.

03

Variable interest rates are vague

If the central bank avoids the economic recession, it is expected that the illusion will be obtained by expected to Management in the future, so that the market will misjudge the rate of interest rate hikes in order to reduce the market's scarcation of the fear of interest rate hikes. Therefore, the central bank may reiterate the monetary policy depending on future economic performance.

As the central bank's annual meeting will be held in terms of scores, when the possibility of continuous inflation crisis is low and the possibility of interest rate cuts next year is lower, it is expected to put pressure on the price of gold. If vaguely expresses the expectations of interest rate hikes, it is expected to bring support for gold prices.

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