Li Chao: It is expected to complete the probability of a fiscal revenue target of 21 trillion yuan throughout the year

Zhongxin Jingwei August 19th. Question: It is expected to complete the probability of a fiscal revenue target of 21 trillion yuan in the whole year.

Author Li Chao Zhejiang Business Securities Chief Economist

Official data show that from January to July, the general public budget revenue of the country reached 1249.1 billion yuan. After deducting the retained tax refund factors, it increased by 3.2%, and the calculation of natural caliber decreased by 9.2%. The national tax revenue was 10266.7 billion yuan. After deducting the retained tax refund factors, it increased by 0.7%, and the calculation of natural caliber decreased by 13.8%; non -tax revenue was 2231.4 billion yuan, an increase of 19.9%over the same period last year.

In addition, the fiscal revenue (natural diameter) in July in July was -4.1%, and the impact of deducting the impact of the reduction of tax reduction was 2.6%. The data verifies our previous judgment: China's economic restoration is driving the steady growth of fiscal revenue.

Economic restoration drives the steady growth of fiscal revenue

In June, we proposed that after the concentrated large -scale reduction of tax reduction and the impact of the epidemic, normalized nucleic acid testing overall economic growth and epidemic prevention and control achieve normalized growth, which will drive significant stability of general public budget revenue. In July and July, the fiscal revenue of deducting reduction tax reduction increased by 5.2%and 2.6%year -on -year, which was significantly improved from April and May.

Among them, the fiscal revenue in July was declined in June, and the direction was consistent with the economic data and financial data. The main reason was that the real estate suspension of loan storms and other incidents disturbed the release of social needs, and the pace of economic restoration slowed down.

We believe that under the cooperation of normalized nucleic acid testing and a series of stable growth policies in the second half of the year, the trend of gradual restoration of the economy will continue, and fiscal revenue and tax performance will be relatively positive. As of July, the general public budget has achieved 59.5%of 59.5%. The budget income target is expected to complete the annual 21 trillion yuan income target.

General public budget expenditure structure returns to 2020

From January to July, the general public budget expenditure in the country was 1467.1 billion yuan, an increase of 6.4%over the same period last year. Among them, from January to July, the growth rates of science and technology, transportation, agriculture, forestry, water, sanitation and other fields have grown rapidly, reaching 20.5%, 13.1%, 8.7%, and 8.6%respectively. From the perspective of timing, from January to July Generally, the progress of public budget expenditure reached 54.9%, of which the expenditure progress in the fields of social security, hygiene, transportation, transportation, etc., reached 60.9%, 60.8%, and 58.2%, respectively. Water is closely related to infrastructure.

The fiscal expenditure structure in 2022 is similar to 2020. On the one hand, actively cope with the impact of the epidemic impact to implement targeted epidemic prevention measures. Sanitary expenditures are more positive. On the other hand, actively implement the "three guarantees", maintain the employment of market entities, and the progress of social security -related expenditures. Significantly leading other fields, and the stable growth of transportation and other aspects of transportation is also active.

In addition, from the perspective of the annual dimension, we expect that the fiscal expenditure structure may return to 2020 in 2022. Some areas such as science and technology, education, cultural media, environmental protection and other fields may not be as good as the annual budget arrangement. Further invest in anti -epidemic expenditure or employment fields such as health and health employment, or make up for the weak links through the method of transferring payment through central and land transfer, especially in areas of grassroots financial resources.

Land sales revenue continues to be sluggish, and the debt in the limited amount has space

From January to July, the national government fund budget revenue was 3338.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 28.9%over the same period last year. Specifically, the budget revenue of the central government fund was 215.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.4%over the same period last year; the budget of local government funds was 3122.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 30%over the same period last year. 2827.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.7%over the same period last year.

At present, the real estate market can be described as "the old innovation has not been healed again", and the land fiscal revenue continues to be sluggish. In 2022, in the context of the steady growth policy, the industry gradually ushered in loose signals in many aspects such as financing, sales, interest rates. However, in the context of the "new innovation" brought about by the impact of the epidemic in the second quarter, the tide of disconnection from many places has made the real estate industry "add new injuries".

In July, data such as real estate investment, sales, new construction, construction, land transactions have deteriorated to varying degrees, and the downturn in the real estate industry has led to the continued performance of land sales revenue. From January to July, the national government fund revenue only reached the budget target 33.8%, the progress and timing of the 2021 and timing of the timing of 2021 reached 15.9 and 24.5 percentage points, respectively.

We believe that follow -up focus on the real estate market restoration process. The Politburo Conference clearly required the responsibility of the local government. The core lies in keeping the property and stabilizing the people's livelihood. On the one hand, it is necessary to further introduce the policy of stable demand and reverse the problem of weakening expectations. Based on the early relaxation policy On the other hand, the supply side focuses on preventing and resolving risks. On the one hand, properly arranged autonomy policies such as pre -sale funds for commercial housing. Waiting for the implementation of measures.

The restoration of the real estate market has an important impact on government land sales revenue. If the revenue of land sales is not as good as expected, the urgent application of incremental financial tools will be significantly improved. Considering the gradual repair of real estate and the slow -moving characteristics of the current land sales income, we can. It is estimated that the scale of revenue of land sales in 2022 may be more than trillion yuan (as of July, and the gap within 1.3 trillion yuan within July), the capital gap caused by this requires incremental policy tools to make up. In July, the Politburo Conference clearly proposed that the special debt limits were used well. According to our estimates, the current local government's special debt balance is 2.03 trillion yuan, which is still about 1.5 trillion yuan from the limit of 21.8 trillion yuan. Therefore, the special bond within the limit may become an important way to supplement the land -saving income funds. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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