Lou Jiwei summarized the 8 o'clock inspiration of the Asian financial crisis and called on the road of win -win cooperation and win -win cooperation

On August 19, the "Review and Revelation International Symposium on the 25th Anniversary of the Asian Financial Crisis" organized by the China Development Research Foundation was held in Beijing. Lou Jiwei, member of the Standing Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and director of the Foreign Affairs Committee, published the "Re -Waling Cooperation Cooperation The keynote speech of win -win road.

Lou Jiwei reviewed the cause of the Asian financial crisis, enumerated several representative typical cases, and summarized eight o'clock inspiration.

Lou Jiwei said that the main reason for the Asian financial crisis was that there were weaknesses in East Asian countries at that time. The structural weakness of itself is fundamental, especially the excessive leverage, excessive dependence on external debt, asset prices, and high maintenance rates, which causes unbalanced international revenue and expenditure. If these structural weaknesses are not resolved in time, the crisis will erupt sooner or later.

Lou Jiwei pointed out that it is necessary to make a cautious evaluation of the capital under the capital. Generally speaking, the mature market economy country and the economy in the financial center will be better than the disadvantages. Allowing "hot money" to move rapidly, it is not good for any developing countries. Although excessive relaxation of fiscal and financial discipline is an important cause of crisis, after the crisis, moderate loose fiscal and monetary policies must be adopted to spend the most difficult moments and make every effort to rectify the fiscal and financial order.

Lou Jiwei said that since 2018, the wind and clouds have changed, trade frictions, technical decoupling, and even industrial subsidy politics, and geopolitical conflicts have occurred this year. Where will the world economic and politics go more, will there be a stronger crisis? Looking back at the Asian financial crisis and the world financial crisis, a large number of analysis and research have shown that if the parties take measures early, the crisis can be avoided. But history is not if you look back at history today, but you are reminding all parties to receive lessons. Although no matter how difficult it is, he still has to re -take the road of win -win cooperation.

The following is the full text of Lou Jiwei's keynote speech:

The general situation of the evolution of the Asian financial crisis: The crisis erupted from Thailand on July 2, 1997, and produced a Domino card effect in East Asian countries. The financial market, the world's major countries have gradually entered the treatment, and the crisis ended in 1999.

First, the cause of the Asian financial crisis.

The main reason was that there were weaknesses in East Asian countries at that time, and it was difficult to respond to external shocks. The first is a similar economic development model in Southeast Asian countries. They are mainly export -oriented, which is quite successful for a period of time. After developing to a certain stage, competition is becoming increasingly fierce. The second is to pursue a large amount of foreign debt in the pursuit of high -speed growth, and the macro leverage is at a high level. Economic overheating, especially real estate and stock markets overheating. Third, the financial market is fragile and lack of regulatory regulations, but it opens an early international revenue and expenditure capital account, and maintains a fixed exchange rate system. The exchange rate is generally overestimated. This is conducive to overseas financing of enterprises, and also brings opportunities for international "hot money" cross -border speculation.

Followed by international factors. First, the full exchange of international revenue and expenditure projects was the consensus of international organizations and economic circles at that time, and regardless of whether the customer's observation conditions were mature, and the capital of the developed nationals could be exchanged under capital. Second, there are weaknesses in financial supervision of major economies. For example, macro hedge funds usually hold dozens of times leverage, which contains great risks. Their cluster attacks on the economic weakness of other countries and are not controlled by any control. Third, economic globalization has deepened the mutual impact of economic and financial affairs in various countries, and also increased the mutual contagious economic crisis. It is reflected in the different stages of the development of the Asian financial crisis, and some are even dramatic.

Second, several typical cases of representativeness.

First, it is Thailand. This is the first country to be attacked by international hot money. The weaknesses of the domestic economy listed just now were typical in Thailand at that time. In early 1997, international hot money began to attack these weaknesses. By July 2, Thailand announced that it had abandoned the fixed exchange rate, which actually responded to failure. The exchange rate has fallen sharply, the inflation is high, the price of assets fell sharply, and a large number of enterprises went bankrupt, and employees were unemployed. The condition for the rescue of the International Monetary Fund is to implement a double tight fiscal and monetary policy, and at the same time continue to maintain the opening of capital, and vigorously promote the reform of the financial and enterprise sector.

Second, it is Malaysia. This is a country that was attacked. In August 1997, the fixed exchange rate system had to be abandoned. The exchange rate declined sharply, and it also adopted a double fiscal and monetary policy. But the economy quickly entered a decline. The government subsequently turned the fiscal and monetary policy to change to moderate loose, and strengthened foreign exchange controls under capital, and also used some tools created by moderate loose fiscal and monetary policy to promote the reform of financial and enterprise sectors. Without accepting the assistance of the International Monetary Fund, Malaysia spent the crisis at a small cost.

Third, the most dramatic and deepest occurrence in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. Before the crisis, the Hong Kong economy was also overheating, especially asset prices. In October 1997, the international hot money began to attack the exchange rate system. The government adopted a method of greatly increasing interest rates to increase financing costs, but also caused a sharp decline in the stock market, and hot money can still make profits through short -selling stock indexes. This makes more hedge funds see the chance of making money, forming a wolf group effect, and thus rolling the soil in August the following year. The SAR government unexpectedly added new tools to use foreign exchange funds directly, purchasing stocks and stock index futures, and a multi -short war started. Subsequently, the central government announced that it fully supported the SAR government to defend Hong Kong dollars and put pressure on hedge funds. One major incident must be mentioned that Russia's Treasury bonds defaulted on August 17 and suspended government bond transactions. The LTCM leverage ratio is about 50 times. To prevent similar incidents from occurring, the US regulatory authorities demand financial institutions to recover hedging financial financing. Under the joint action of various forces, international hot money failed to leave. Fourth, the special role of China. At that time, China's economy and East Asian countries were periodically misplaced. In order to cope with the inflation and the establishment of a socialist market economic foundation in 1993, comprehensive supporting reforms began in 1994, and a double -tight fiscal and monetary policy were implemented. In 1996, economic soft landing was achieved. As an important part of the reform of the foreign exchange foreign trade management system, one is to cancel the dual exchange rate. The market exchange rate floats within a certain range, and the other is to cancel various preferential policies for exports to achieve free access to the foreign trade field. As a result, China reached the national conditions of Article 8 of the International Monetary Fund in 1996, that is, the regular items of the local currency can be exchanged. In 1997, the Asian financial crisis broke out, external demand quickly weakened, and the RMB exchange rate was under tremendous pressure on depreciation. The Chinese government announced that RMB will not depreciate, on the one hand, to support the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government's response to external shocks, and on the other hand, it is also responsible for regional powers. By expanding fiscal policy, infrastructure investment has been greatly increased, and the successful expansion of domestic demand has successfully cope with the impact of the Asian financial crisis. After that, the focus of reform has turned to state -owned enterprises and financial departments. After joining the WTO in 2001, it was further expanded, including the opening of the financial market, and gradually relaxed the capital control of the capital according to the objective conditions.

Third, what a few points.

First, its structural weakness is fundamental. In particular, the leverage ratio, excessive dependence on external debt, asset prices, and maintenance of the local currency exchange rate, resulting in unbalanced international revenue and expenditure. If these structural weaknesses are not resolved in time, the crisis will erupt sooner or later. External targeted attacks can not make the crisis eruption earlier and even more tragic.

Second, we must adhere to the opening of the outside world and fully realize the redeeming items of the local currency. Careful assessment is necessary to let go of the capital item. Generally speaking, a mature market economy country and economy in the financial center will be better than the disadvantages. Allowing "hot money" to move rapidly, it is not good for any developing countries.

Third, we must strengthen financial supervision and form a joint supervision force to improve its own financial market. It is necessary to recognize that the capital is out of profit, and it will always look for supervision loopholes. If the vulnerability is too large, the financial institutions will increase the systemic risk regardless of excessive risk and leverage, and eventually will cause calamities to others.

Fourth, although excessive relaxation of fiscal and financial discipline is an important cause of crisis, after the crisis, a moderate loose fiscal and monetary policy must be adopted to spend the most difficult moments and make every effort to rectify the fiscal and financial order. Then moderately follow the policy of tightening financial and government and monetary, so that the economy will restore the normal state and minimize the loss.

Fifth, reform will inevitably lead to the adjustment of vested interests, and the crisis is conducive to strengthening reform consensus. After the crisis, East Asian countries have greatly promoted reforms. In all aspects of corporate departments, financial departments, and government functions, reforms are all -round. Ten years later, the impact of the international financial crisis on East Asian countries is relatively small, which explains this.

Sixth, the efficiency of economic globalization has also increased the infectiousness of risks. The Asian financial crisis began from Southeast Asian countries, and then spread to Northeast Asia, and then lowered the demand for petroleum and natural gas, which in turn caused Russia to fall into crisis and national debt defaults, and affected the United States. This shows that maintaining global financial stability is global public affairs.

Seventh, after the Asian financial crisis, under the strong request of East Asian countries, the G7 State Finance Secretary proposed to establish the Financial Stability Forum (FSF) in 1999, but this forum has almost no progress within ten years. Until the world financial crisis occurred, at the 2009 G20 London Summit, the forum was changed to the Financial Stability Council (FSB), which played a constructive role in global financial stability assessment and unified regulatory standards. This is also an excellent example of crisis triggering consensus.

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