The country often proposes "supporting valid demand for credit", how will LPR be adjusted next Monday

CCTV News on August 19th, Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council hosted a executive meeting of the State Council on August 18 to deploy measures to promote the reduction of corporate financing costs and personal consumer credit costs, and increase financial support for the real economy.

The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to increase fiscal and monetary policy to support the real economy, further consolidate the foundation of economic recovery, and maintain economic operation in a reasonable range. Activate the local special debt limit space in accordance with the law. Improve market -oriented interest rate formation and conduction mechanism, give play to the guidance role of the loan market quotation interest rate (hereinafter referred to as LPR), support the recovery of valid demand for credit, and promote the reduction of comprehensive financing costs of enterprises and personal consumer credit costs.

In view of the fact that the central bank has exceeded expectations on August 15, the 7 -day reverse repurchase interest rate of the short -term policy interest rate and the one -year MLF interest rate of the one -year MLF interest rate representing the mid -term policy interest rate will be lowered. In the context of the background of quotation interest rate guidance "and" promoting the reduction of comprehensive financing costs for enterprises and personal consumer credit costs ", the probability of LPR on August 22 will be reduced.

It can be seen that in July, financial data is less than expected. The enterprise's medium and long -term loans and residents' medium- and long -term loans have increased less year -on -year, reflecting the weak demand for the real economy, and still requires policy to make efforts on demand side.

How to adjust the two -period variety LPR? CITIC Securities believes that on the one hand, after the reform of the LPR formation mechanism is improved, the 1 -year MLF interest rate has a greater impact on the LPR quotation. Considering that the recent banking cost of banking storage is dropped, the pressure on the debt side is significantly reduced significantly It will also help banks provide space for LPR quotation to increase point. In summary, the LPR regulation of LPR may exceed 10 basis points in August. On the other hand, the probability of LPR asymmetry is high. Under the situation where the demand for medium- and long -term loan needs to be boosted, the voltage -oriented LPR interest rate will effectively reduce the financing costs of residents and enterprises and improve their willingness to increase leverage.

Debon Securities believes that from the consideration of risk premium factors, the 1-year LPR quotation in August may be reduced by the same level as the one-year MLF interest rate of 10 basis points, 5-year LPR quotation or 15-20 basis points, showing a longer period of time limit The decline of premium factor.

Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative 1 -year LPR and 5 -year LPR have fallen 10 basis points and 20 basis points, respectively. Among them, the January 1 -year LPR has dropped 10 basis points, 5 basis points of LPR above 5 years, in May 5th The LPR above the period is reduced by 15 basis points.

Following the seminar of the Prime Minister of the Economic Provincial Government on August 16, after the premier of the State Council, Li Keqiang, he emphasized that the "revitalizing the limited space of the special debt and debt" was emphasized, the State Council proposed "revitalizing the local special debt limit space in accordance with the law". On August 19, the Ministry of Finance stated that the next step will be studied and guided by the local use of special debt limits, revitalizing the debt limit space in accordance with the law, and exerting an effective investment role.

In the case of most of this year's special debt issued, UBS Securities pointed out in the research report that the local government may use the special debt limit and balance in the next few months to issue special bonds other than this year. It may issue the special debt quota next year and start issued by the end of this year.

Dongfang Jincheng pointed out that from the perspective of space, this year's national government special debt limits were 2.182 trillion yuan, and as of the end of June, the balance of local government debt in the country was 2.026 trillion yuan, which means The limit ", the special bond of about 1.55 trillion yuan in the second half of the year can be issued.

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