Adhere to the stable monetary policy and enhance China's economic development resilience

Senior Researcher at the Yangtze River Economics Belt Research Institute of Renmin University of China and PhD instructor of the School of Finance and Tax, Southwest University of Finance and Economics

The economic data recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics show that China ’s consumer price index (CPI) in July reached 102.7, an increase of 2.7%year -on -year, and the core CPI increased by 0.8%. From January to July, the two increased by 1.8%and 1.0%, respectively. In the context of global inflation, affected by factors such as the epidemic of new crown pneumonia, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the energy and food crisis, the stability of China's economy is facing huge challenges. In the future, inflation pressure is increasing.

Stabilizing the economic market is still the main goal of the current and future period

Since the beginning of this year, under the influence of a new round of new crown pneumonia epidemic and Russia -Ukraine conflict, domestic investment has weakened, consumption has continued to decline, and economic development has faced unprecedented difficulties and challenges. From the fourth quarter of 2021 to the first quarter of 2022, China's GDP (GDP) fell from 8.1%to 4.8%year -on -year, and the first, second and third industries decreased by 1.6%, 0.5%, and 0.3%respectively. From the perspective of the manufacturing PMI, in July 2022, 49.0 was lower than the Rongku line, and decreased by 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. All sub -indicators were less than 50.

Various economic indicators show that although the current domestic economy has picked up, under the influence of multiple factors, it still faces great downward pressure. The Central Political Bureau meeting held on July 28 emphasized again that the consolidation of the economic recovery trend, stabilizing the economic market, focusing on stabilizing employment and stable prices, maintaining economic operations in a reasonable range, and striving to achieve the best results. Stable economy is still the primary goal of the current and second half of this year.

Stabilize the overall price level, focus on preventing structural inflation

In July, the price index of China's consumer consumer rose by 2.7%year -on -year, and the ring compared with 0.2 percentage points last month, a new high since August 2020, especially the consumer price index of food residents reached 106.3, an increase of 3.4 percentage points from the previous month.

At present, the world is suffering from inflation that has been encountered once a decades. In July, the CPI of the United States, Germany, and France increased by 8.5%, 7.5%, and 6.1%year -on -year respectively. %. At present, the macroeconomic regulation policy of developed western countries is falling into a dilemma of stable growth and anti -inflation.

The main reason for China's rise in prices is rising food and energy prices. Among them, the rise in the price of fresh fruits such as meat food and vegetables, especially the "pig cycle". Secondly, the impact of the rising import cost of energy products such as oil and natural gas. From January to July, the average price of Brent crude oil futures increased by more than 50%compared with the same period last year, resulting in a 6.3%year-on-year increase in the average domestic price of gasoline in China, forming a certain input inflation. Generally speaking, China will not have a comprehensive rise in prices, the overall price level is controllable, but the risk of structural inflation is dependent.

Continue to adhere to the stable monetary policy and achieve the two goals of economic growth and price stability

At present, the Chinese economy has recovered under various stimulus policies, but at the same time, it has also increased the level of price levels rapidly. Steady growth and stable prices have become an important goal of macro -control in the second half of the year or even the future. According to the actual situation of the current economic development and the financial, tax policies and liquidity guarantee, continue to adhere to the adequate rationality of the stable monetary policy.

First of all, from the perspective of the first half of 2022, the overall manifestation of China's economy is a stable recovery trend. China GDP reached 56264.2 billion yuan, calculated at an unchanged price, an increase of 2.5%year -on -year. Although China's GDP increased by 0.4%year-on-year in the second quarter and a month-on-month growth of -2.6%, from the perspective of industrial growth, the value added value above the scale of the scale of the scale increased by 3.5%year-on-year, accelerated by 0.1 percentage points from January to June. In addition, the added value of high-tech manufacturing in January to July increased by 9%year-on-year, and investment in high-tech industries increased by 20.2%; the production index of information transmission, software and information technology service industry increased by 12.1%year-on-year; online retail sales of physical goods increased by 5.7%, and 0.1 percentage points accelerated from last month; in July, the output of new energy vehicles and solar cells increased by 112.7%and 33.9%year -on -year, respectively. Relevant data shows that China has achieved significant results in the prevention and control of the epidemic and economic stability. It has its real economic foundation for stable rather than expanding monetary policies.

Secondly, continuing to adhere to the stable monetary policy is not only to ensure sufficient liquidity, but also the basic requirement that keeps the bottom line that does not occur without systemic financial risks. The "China Monetary Policy Implementation Report in the Second quarter of 2022" released by the People's Bank of China shows that China ’s new RMB loan was 13.68 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, a year -on -year increase of 919.2 billion yuan; %And 10.8%, an increase of 2.4%and 0.5%compared with the end of 2021; at the end of June, the balances of inclusive small and micro loans and manufacturing in the manufacturing industry increased by 23.8%and 29.7%year -on -year, respectively, and the average interest rate of corporate loans dropped to 4.16%. From January to June, 0.25 percentage points were reduced. Increasing development policy banks' credit quota of 800 billion yuan, promoting the establishment of 300 billion yuan in policy development financial instruments, increasing the ratio of incentive funds provided by inclusive micro -loan support tools from 1%to 2%, increasing 100 billion yuan in support Clean coal clean and efficient use of special re -loan amount. A series of existing monetary policies fully guarantee market liquidity and also provide necessary conditions for maintaining the existing stable monetary policy. Again, positive fiscal, tax, and investment policies provide support conditions for continuing to adhere to the stable monetary policy. In response to the current actual situation of lack of demand and weak economic growth, the State Council has launched 33 policies and measures to stabilize the economy, including 24 of which is related to fiscal policy, including taxation, special bonds, government procurement, expenditure policies, and people's livelihood and social security. Since the beginning of this year, the intensity and rhythm of fiscal policies have accelerated significantly. From January to July, the National Development and Reform Commission has approved and approved 65 fixed asset investment projects, with a total investment of 1002.8 billion yuan. Among them, in July, a total of 8 fixed asset investment projects were approved, with a total investment of 236.8 billion yuan. The total investment of the project exceeded 1 trillion yuan from January to July this year, which has significantly exceeded the annual investment last year. In the first half of the year, the total amount of capital formed by the economic growth was 0.8 percentage points. Among them, in the second quarter, the total amount of capital formed in the second quarter drove the quarterly economic growth of 0.3 percentage points. In terms of taxation, the General Administration of Taxation of the Ministry of Finance issued an announcement to further increase the scope and intensity of the value -added tax deduction tax refund. The estimated tax refund scale for the whole year reached 1.64 trillion yuan. Enterprise tax costs have improved corporate operating vitality.

In short, although the current Chinese economy is facing a complex international and domestic environment, the long -term good fundamentals have not changed. Economic development still has strong toughness, rich macro -control policy tools, and stable monetary policy. Reasonable choice of China's economic development. (Editor in charge: Le Shui Anran Yuxin)

(鄢 鄢)

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