The most tangled 618 in history, are you still "chopping your hands"?

No stock, market share to others

Prepare stock, worry

The epidemic is repeated and the economy continues to be under pressure. Optional consumer goods such as clothing and beauty have declined significantly. In this context, 618 has become extremely special this year.

The subsidy of Tmall, JD.com, Douyin and other e -commerce platforms 618 has increased unprecedentedly, which is intended to enhance merchants to participate in promotion and promote consumption. However, participating in great promotion means a lot of stocking and concessions. For companies with strong strength, chasing performance, market shares are struggling; for companies with weak strength, profit -keeping is the primary task.

According to industry analysts, it is difficult for everyone to expect the outbreak of 618 in their mentality. During the promotion period, there are more goods, which is not the same as making more money. This year, more and more enterprises are more cautious and conservative.

"The most difficult in history" 618, quarreling for stocking

In March, the sudden epidemic swept to Shanghai, and many companies were forced to press the pause keys.

As a local enterprise in Shanghai, Lin Qingxuan, the base of factory R & D, production teams and warehouse logistics are all in Shanghai. 33 closed -production workers in the workshop and 19 live broadcast employees in the office support the company's operations during the sealing period. But on the issue of stocking 618, the entire team has experienced a long time of tangling and hesitation. "No stocking, market share for others; preparation, worrying that you can't sell it."

"This year's stocking is 30%more than in previous years. In fact, there is a lot of risks here. In case of unable to sell, it will become inventory. Before the stocking, we also tangled for a long time. ", The founder Sun Laichun recalled the situation of the 618 stocking of 618 at the end of March. This year, 618 is very difficult. From production stocking to logistics distribution, the difficulty of each link is beyond imagination.

Sun Laichun revealed that as of now, this year's 618 performance has increased by about 28%compared with the same period. Although growth is happy, but behind the growth, the profit is not as good as expected.

"Various costs have increased significantly. In the past, it was delivered from Shanghai to Wuxi. One cargo was one or two thousand dollars. In the past two or three months, the car goods rose to 10,000 yuan. "The cost of personnel has risen sharply." Sun Laichun mentioned that the goal of this year is to protect performance, otherwise it will be replaced by other brands, and there is no hope in future development.

In the face of high costs and unobstructed logistics, many companies choose to let go in 618 like Lin Qingxuan.

As a new brand, the stink -snail fans participated in 618 in the first year, hoping to sprint a wave of performance. The person in charge of its brand told China News Weekly that this year's logistics was affected by the affected situation, and some areas could not ship or lengthen logistics time, which not only affects consumer shopping experience, but also affects the logistics scores of the store. Management proposes higher challenges.

The number of shoe and boots brand has three times the number of stocks of 618 this year. The founder Guo Jing mentioned that the goal of this year is to maintain the supply chain and employees' expenses, and the profit is only second.

"If the loss of production is greater," Guo Jing analyzed that the monthly production capacity of a production line is 50,000 pairs. Once the raw material is disconnected, it is one week, half a month, or even one month. Employees' salaries and other expenses still have to be paid, affecting the gross profit and profits throughout the year, so this year, everyone is holding the planned plan to survive.

Zhang Shule, a senior observer of the Internet, pointed out that in recent years, e -commerce has become more frequent. In order to attract consumers to the online, in addition to 618 and Double 11, the time nodes of Women's Day, Mid -Autumn Festival and other time nodes will also be made. The particularity of this year's 618 is that for some companies, it may be a node related to survival.

Unprecedented subsidy, but some people choose to "lie flat"

"618 has become the key to the sales performance of optional consumer companies in the second quarter." Xie Liyuan, chief analyst of Guojin Securities' home appliance industry, observed that in order to enhance the company's willingness to participate in promotion and promote consumption, this year Tmall ’s cross -store full reduction is 300 At 50, JD.com's subsidy was 50 minus 50, and the e -commerce platforms increased significantly compared with previous years.

However, as the subsidy intensity increased unprecedentedly, companies still choose "lying down".

Fang Jianhua, the founder of Inman, publicly called "this 618‘ lying down 'this this time, no anymore. " He mentioned that more than 100 offline stores closed their business, and the sales rate of Shanghai Chun and Summer products was less than 60%. The sales speed could not catch up with the return, and the maximum return rate reached 60%. "This year 618 is the first large -scale promotion after the epidemic. Inman chose to lie flat."

Vice President Qu Jing told China News Weekly that 618 this year will not put too much attention on discounts and marketing, and will not deliberately create a strong atmosphere. A certain performance. "This year, no longer pursue the so -called big promotion ranking. Enterprises must have profits to develop to develop."

Casino Camon is located in Shanghai and has been impacted in this epidemic. "This year's 618 performance is less than expected, and the traffic is bleak." The founder Chen Jianfeng mentioned that many Camon's customer groups were in first -tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai. Both cities were the hardest hit areas of the epidemic. Therefore, the performance was objectively affected.

In view of the risk consideration of the current environment, Chen Jianfeng talked that he did not participate too much during 618 this year. In his opinion, during the promotion period, the sales seemed to be lively, and there were actually few money in the pocket.

It is still a profit issue that determines his attitude towards a big promotion. If the price is reduced due to great promotion, the net profit will be much less. In addition, there will be a full reduction during the promotion period. Many consumers will return the goods after the order is made. Various consumption and costs behind this artificial, management and materials will also affect profits. A food e -commerce practitioner told China News Weekly that for a smaller brand, it is expensive and not continuous, and it is difficult to emerge in the face of big promotion. However, he also mentioned that for SMEs, it takes time to grow, make the brand well, and usher in "tap water".

Li Hao, the founder of Mars culture, said that in order to guide users to consume this year, the platform has made the stimulus that has not been seen for many years. However, most of the companies and businesses around them are more cautious and their wishes are insufficient.

"In fact, great promotion often becomes a few players' face -to -face opportunities. The weaker players become more cautious, and these companies have a poor ability to resist risk. Many companies are afraid of the end. "Li Hao believes that those who can give the greatest confidence to the company are the circulation of production factors, including the circulation of logistics and personnel. As the epidemic relieves, 618 may become a good turning point for consumption.

The platform ranges from "selling goods" to ecological optimization

According to public data, as of December 2021, the number of online shopping users in China reached 842 million, accounting for 81.6%of the overall number of netizens. In 2021, it can be regarded as a turning point in the history of e -commerce development. The growth rate of online retail sales online is lower than the retail sales of social goods, and the proportion of retail sales of social goods has declined.

Li Yongjian, a researcher at the Institute of Finance and Economics of the Academy of Social Sciences, observed that this year's platform and enterprises participating in 618 are very anxious. The reason is that everyone is not facing a matter of making money, but a problem of survival.

He talked, "In recent years, the cost of customer acquisition has increased, and the cost of traffic on the line of enterprises usually accounts for 20%-50%of the company's sales. During the promotion period, the profit margins of these enterprises were greatly suppressed. Under the impact of the epidemic, how can this ecosystem healthier be healthier under the impact of the epidemic and live a bitter life. "

Li Mengzhu, director of the research director of Magic Mirror Market Intelligence, said that in order to provoke the long -standing consumer desire for consumers, major platforms have launched a variety of gameplay one after another. The highly overlapping competitive markets in various industries have prompted major players to start paying attention to the rhythm of marketing. Essence

Taobao Tmall's 618 merchants have a total of 25 merchants this year, which are mostly concentrated in two aspects: funds and traffic; JD through three excellents and three reductions, hoping to maximize the decompression and negatives of small and medium businesses; Flow subsidies, red envelopes, and data support; the video number entered 618 for the first time this year, launched a number of measures such as platform traffic incentives, opened WeChat ecological capabilities, and injected official "living water" through public -private area linkage.

"618 is no longer a battle between Tmall and Jingdong. With the improvement of the quality of short video, the preheating of live broadcasts, and the more direct interaction between merchants and users, the short video platforms are favored by many e -commerce users. The competition ruler of the platform will also be transformed from the level of GMV to a precise prediction of users. "Li Mengzhu mentioned.

The relevant person in charge of the video number told China News Weekly that the live video room is mainly based on the accumulation of merchants in the WeChat ecosystem, linking public domains and private domains. At present, buyers have strong purchasing power and stickiness, with an average customer unit price of more than 200 yuan. The rate exceeds 60%, concentrated in the categories of shoe bags, beauty protection and food freshness. Users are concentrated in first -tier and second -tier cities. In addition, fans can be locked in advance through live broadcast appointments to achieve accurate reach of target users. Improvement accordingly.

The promotion has been developed for more than 10 years. In the past, the platform was mainly selling goods. Li Mengzhu believed that under the background of the epidemic and economic downturn this year, the focus of the platform began to transfer from "selling goods" to ecological optimization.

"E -commerce platforms must construct a healthy forest system, rather than supporting several big trees. Because sometimes the trees grow too big, the grass under the tree may lose the sun and water." Chen Jianfeng believes that "the platform should create a more more created A good environment allows each company to find their own ecology. "

When consumption gradually returns to rationality

An e -commerce practitioner told China News Weekly that the era of "25 minutes reaching the same period last year's 24 -hour turnover" has ended. For the current enterprises, even if there is no epidemic, e -commerce is no longer a "emerging channel". The mature channel is normal market growth. Everyone should lower the expectations and adjust the response strategy.

Xie Liyuan observed that in recent years, the frequency of great promotion has become higher and higher. After the high traffic dividend in the previous few years, and the cost of traffic has increased significantly, the relationship between all parties is becoming more stable. Consumers have also shifted from the previous simplicity of discounts to the strength of the discount. Higher requirements for shopping experience and product quality and after -sales service.

She further pointed out that with the improvement of consumer material levels, most of the consumer goods are sufficient, consumption becomes more decompression and meets emotional needs, and the promotion has become more and more afforded to stimulate consumer demand through a centralized carnival shopping experience. The way. From this perspective, the brand needs to produce more high -quality, high -quality value, and stories that can meet emotional needs.

For many years, Chen Jianfeng has not been keen on the promotion. In view of the platform's search mechanism, he has been wrapped in participation. Cammers' unit price is slightly higher, and the customer base is stable, and they pay more attention to daily sales. Chen Jianfeng is worried about destroying the price system in this great promotion and more than the awareness of the brand. Chen Jianfeng said that when this year's epidemic is so difficult, he hopes to focus on the category with core competitiveness and protect his brand. In addition to simple and rude discount promotions, more brand values ​​should be exported.

"Tmall is the main position of many brands. Jingdong pays attention to the logistics experience. Douyin Kuaishou is a super large single product logic. The brand can combine its own characteristics and close to customers in different traffic pools." See, 618 has changed this year, and the attributes of traffic are becoming more and more detailed, which makes companies treat traffic more rationally.

As an enterprise, Sun Laichun promoted a large cup of wine. Drinking wine every day will hurt himself. Occasionally, drinking a cup of wine feels delicious. "Great promotion, the company's attitude towards the big promotion determines the brand's positioning. Friends who return to rationality and do time to do time will continue to produce brand dividends in the future."

Li Yongjian realized that the demand for Chinese consumers is changing. "China's new middle class has nearly 330 million people in 2015 and will exceed 1.04 billion in 2030. Their consumption as a whole Transformation, consumers are more concerned about personality, quality and other aspects. "

Li Mengzhu suggested that enterprises should get out of the strange circle of "doing marketing with their hearts and making products", reduce vicious competition in low -cost markets, polish products with heart, deep insight into consumer pain points and demand. At the moment of consumption increasingly rational, the sense of niche The scarcity of benign reputation may be the opportunity of the brand under the ebb.

Author: Meng Qian ([email protected])

Edit: Li Zhiquan

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