The central bank announced!

The interest rate at LPR arrives as scheduled, "double drop"!

On the 22nd, the one -year loan market quotation interest rate (LPR) announced by the official website of the People's Bank of China was 3.65%, and the LPR of more than 5 years was 4.3%. Among them, the 1 -year LPR decreased by 5 basis points from the previous month. LPR, which is closely related to mortgages, reduced 15 basis points, and exceeded market expectations.

Why is the central bank asymmetric rate cut? How much can a monthly loan supply be reduced?

Data Map: People's Bank of China. Photo by Zhang Xinglong, a reporter from China News Agency

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Why does LPR "double drop"?

"In the early stage, the policy interest rate (the public market reverse repurchase interest rate and the convenient interest rate of medium -term borrowing) are mainly aimed at the relatively weak economic and financial data in July to further release the policy intentions of stable and stable economy, and conduct transmission to LPR downward. By reducing loan interest and reducing financing costs, the intention of stabilizing the economy from the fund supply is more obvious. "Yang Chang, chief analyst of the China -Thailand Securities Institute, pointed out.

According to central bank data, in July, the increase in social financing increased by 756.1 billion yuan, an increase of 319.1 billion yuan less than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 679 billion yuan, an increase of 404.2 billion yuan year -on -year. In the eyes of many analysts, this reflects that the effective demand has not fully recovered.

The executive meeting of the State Council held on August 18 pointed out that the improvement of market -oriented interest rate formation and conduction mechanisms, giving play to the guidance of the loan market quotation interest rate, supporting the recovery of valid demand for credit, and promoting the reduction of comprehensive financing costs of enterprises and personal consumer credit costs.

"Reducing corporate financing costs and personal consumer credit costs can help increase corporate investment demand and enhance the willingness to consume residents, thereby expanding the effective needs of society." Said Dong Ximiao, chief researcher at Zhailian Financial Finance.

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Why is the decline be asymmetric?

Although the "double drop" of the LPR quotation in this round is in line with expectations, the downlink range of LPR above 5 years is somewhat "unexpected", which has aroused a lot of attention.

According to Yan Yuejin, the research director of the Think Tank Center of the E -House Research Institute, it is expected to drop up to 10 basis points, but now it has dropped by 15 basis points, indicating that the central bank has great efforts to reduce the cost of medium- and long -term funding.

Yang Chang mentioned that the downward increase of LPR in the 5 -year round of this round exceeded the public market reverse repurchase interest rate and interim borrowing convenience rate. Because LPRs of more than 5 years are the reference benchmark for the pricing of the real estate market loan, the decrease is larger, and it has further clarified that the real estate market is the focus of the current policy focus and releases the policy intention to promote the rebound of the real estate market.

In response to the 1 -year LPR decline of only 5 basis points, Li Yujia, chief researcher at the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, explained that the main reason is that the financing environment is very loose. No need to drop again.

Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, also said that if the one -year LPR continues to be significantly reduced, it is easy to exacerbate the arbitrage behavior of the enterprise and deviate from the original intention of the policy.

The picture shows a building sand table displayed by a commercial housing sales center in Zhengzhou. (Data Map) Photo by Han Zhangyun

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Mortgage can be paid less again

"Rest -cutting has an important positive impact on bank mortgages. With the reduction of LPR interest rate cuts and the lower limit of bank loans, the cost of mortgage is continuously declined. LPR above 5 years drops 15 basis points, and the space for subsequent mortgage interest rates will continue to increase. Promote the cost of buying a house and monthly supply. "Yan Yuejin analyzed.

Liu Lijie, a market analyst at the Shell Research Institute, mentioned that the lower limit of the first home loan interest rate will be adjusted to 4.1%, and the lower limit of the two sets of mortgage interest rates will be reduced to 4.9%. In the later period, the bank's interest rate reduction space for the first and second sets of mortgages will expand.

For example, calculated based on the commercial loan limit of 1 million yuan, a loan of 30 years, and the equivalent principal and interest repayment method. The LPR decreased by 15 basis points. The monthly supply decreased by about 88 yuan.

However, Li Yujia also pointed out that in order to stabilize real estate consumption, he also has to work hard on the income of residents, thereby enhancing everyone's enthusiasm for buying a house.

Source: China News Network/Gong Hongyu

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