The middle price of the RMB to the US dollar is reduced by 148 basis points, and it will still maintain elasticity and two -way floating

The 21st Century Business Herald reporter Ye Mai Sui Guangzhou reported on August 25. According to data from the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, the RMB was reported at 6.8536 in the middle price of the RMB against the US dollar, and the degradation of 148 basis points. The intermediate price of the previous trading day was 6.8388, and the closing price at the shore was reported at 6.8654, 23:30 nights of the night.

In September, the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike expects to rise sharply

The US dollar index rose slightly on the 24th, and the US dollar index of the US dollar to the six major currencies rose 0.05%on the day, closing at 108.6750 at the end of the foreign exchange market.

As U.S. inflation remains at 8.5%, which is much higher than the Fed's target of 2%, investors' concerns about a significant interest rate hike have improved again.

This week, investors focus on the global central bank annual meeting in Jackson Hall, USA. The three -day seminar theme is "Re -evaluating the restrictions on the economy and policy". At 10 am (10 pm Beijing time on Friday, Beijing time), a keynote speech was delivered. The annual conference has always been regarded as an important meeting of Federal Reserve officials' release of policy changes. At present, investors most want to know how much the central bank will raise interest rates in the future.

"Although the market may be swaying between inflation and recession, the central banks of various countries do not focus on inflation," said Marc Chandler, the chief market strategist of BannnoCKBURN Global Forex, said. It seems that their attention is almost fully concentrated in inflation. "

Federal fund interest rate traders predict that the Federal Reserve ’s probability of 75 basis points at the September meeting is 61%, and the probability of 50 basis points in interest rate hikes is 39%. The US dollar index touched 109.27 points on Tuesday, slightly lower than the 20 -year high point of 109.29 points at the 20 -year high at the Tenth of July 14. Although the blessing of interest rate hike expectations in the past two days, the US dollar index is still maintained at a high of 108 points.

If the Fed really raises 75 base points again, this will be the third raising interest rates for the third consecutive time in June and July. The market believes that the Federal Reserve's high inflation for decades will continue to strengthen the road to raising interest rates. It is expected that the benchmark interest rate in the United States may rise to 3.75%by May 2023.

However, if the interest rate hike is less than expected, the US dollar index may dive, which may also cause a severe shock in the foreign exchange market.

The exchange rate in the second half of the year will continue to maintain stability

Since the beginning of this year, in the context of the sharp fluctuations in the US dollar, the appreciation of the US dollar against the renminbi has also exceeded 7%since the beginning of the year.

For the performance of the RMB year, the mainstream view of the market believes that there are two main reasons. First, domestic interest rate adjustments, the central bank has lowered the repurchase interest rate and MLF interest rate, while guiding the 5 -year LPR interest rate to significantly reduce the 15 basis points to further exacerbate the spread of China and the United States. The second is that the US dollar continues to raise interest rate hikes, which leads to the rise in the US dollar index.

On the 25th, the central bank announced that in order to maintain the banking system reasonable and abundant, August 25 launched a 7 -day reverse repurchase operation by interest rate bidding, with a bid interest rate of 2.0%. There are 2 billion yuan in repurchase expiration today, so the day was completely hedged to the expected period.

Wu Chaoming, deputy dean of the Caixin Research Institute, said that at present, the staged pressure of China's cross -border funding has increased, and the two -way fluctuation elasticity of the RMB exchange rate may increase, but there is no basis for continuous unilateral depreciation. In terms of economic fundamentals for the important decisive factor of the RMB exchange rate on the US dollar, China's economic growth and the decline in the decline in the US economic growth have not changed. China's economic recovery is more obvious in terms of marginal changes, which is conducive to the overall stability of the RMB exchange rate. As a big country, China has a degree of macro -control and the micro market mechanism is valid. It continues to adhere to normal monetary policy. In the next few years, it is still expected to become the highlights of global economic growth and the envy of the market. In the middle and long term, it will form an important support for the RMB exchange rate.

Li Liuyang, a foreign exchange expert of CICC Research Institute, said that compared with the first half of this year, the US dollar index is farther away from the long -term average, while the RMB is closer to neutral levels. Under the influence of long -term valuation correction power, it is expected that the RMB exchange rate to the US dollar will not simply repeat the depreciation of the first half of the year.

Guotai Junan's large -scale asset allocation research team believes that the renminbi depreciation pressure is controllable. Under the environment of poor domestic economic momentum and weak credit, the slight devaluation of the RMB is conducive to export support, and it is also an effective measure to balance domestic and foreign prices and release cross -border financial pressure. Looking backwards, by the end of 2022, the RMB exchange rate will continue to depreciate slightly and fluctuate in both directions, and it is expected to fall into the range of 6.7 to 7.0.

Regarding the future exchange rate trend, Wang Chunying, deputy director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said recently that the RMB exchange rate in the second half of the year will still be basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. First of all, my country's economic stability and restoration, the main economic indicators are good, the industrial chain and supply chain remain stable, and it will continue to play the fundamental role of supporting the RMB exchange rate. Secondly, my country's foreign trade and foreign investment are strongly tough, and the funds at the real economic level such as trade and investment will still be the basic disk of flowing, which will help the basic balance of supply and demand for the foreign exchange market. In addition, the market subject exchange rate is expected to be basically stable, maintaining a rational trading model of "purchase of foreign exchange and settlement at high exchange".

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