Experts talk about | Yang Changyong: This year's world economy or greatly deceleration, the dom

Original title: Expert Talk | Yang Changyong, a researcher at the Institute of Foreign Economic Research Institute of China Macroeconomic Research Institute: This year's world economy or a big deceleration, the domestic economic foundation is still full of confidence

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Researcher Yang Changyong, a researcher at the Institute of Foreign Economic Research Institute of China Macroeconomic Research Institute

Now major institutions predict that the world economy slows down this year The possibility is very high, and the deceleration will be very large, and it will not even rule out signs of recession in the second half of the year.

On the impact of the international situation on my country's economy, Yang Changyong, a researcher at the Institute of Foreign Economic Research Institute of the Chinese Institute of Macroeconomic Research, said in an interview with the CCP reporter that the foundation of my country's economic development is solid, the room is wide, the toughness is strong, the toughness is strong, Strong, followed by the gradual implementation of the macro -control policy, the long -term fundamental fundamentals of the domestic economy will not change.

This year's world economy may have significantly slowed down

Since this year, the international economic situation has been complicated and severe. This year's world economy has had a significant impact, such as the Ukraine crisis, the new crown epidemic and high inflation. The monetary policy of the central banks such as the Federal Reserve and other developed economies may shrink quickly, which will cause great pressure on the world economy this year.

Generally speaking, this year's world economy has made the external environment of my country's development facing more risk challenges, and uncertainty and unstable factors have increased significantly. pressure.

At present, my country's economy is facing triple pressures that are shrinking, supply impact, and weakening expectations. Under the circumstances of changes in the international environment, these triple pressures have increased. From the perspective of demand, the most direct transition of the world economy is that foreign demand is weak, so it will bring a lot of challenges to my country's stable exports this year.

From the perspective of the impact of supply, it is mainly reflected in the repeated global epidemic and the Ukraine crisis, which will lead to the disrupted industrial chain supply chain of some industries, which will bring great difficulties to the normal operation of the industry.

In addition, due to the Ukraine crisis, many large commodities in the world, including agricultural products, crude oil, natural gas, and many metal mineral prices rising significantly. After the price of upstream raw materials has risen sharply, it will have a great impact on the middle and lower reaches of the domestic industrial chain through the supply, increasing input inflation pressure.

In the context of the expected global environment, the global environment will inevitably have a certain impact on domestic consumption and investment expectations. Therefore, this year's international environment is more complicated and severe, which has increased the new downward risk of the domestic economy.

However, Yang Changyong believes that although this year's international environment has brought more risk challenges to the country this year, and puts more pressure on the economic downturn, but we must also see that my country's economic toughness is strong. Full of potential, room for rotationWide, long -term good fundamentals have not changed.

The four major foundations of domestic economic development are very solid

Yang Changyong pointed out that the confidence in the development of domestic economic development mainly comes from the four major foundations of my country's economic development. The first is a large -scale domestic market, with a population of 1.4 billion, more than 400 million middle -income groups, and a per capita GDP of over 10,000 US dollars. The unique large -scale market provides a large space and room for the domestic economy.

Followed by the domestic industrial system is very complete, my country's industrial system is a clustered group distribution. Having a comprehensive industrial supporting foundation is a great reason to maintain global capital attraction.

Yang Changyong explained that capital investing anywhere will face the problem of industrial clusters and supporting facilities in the region. If this aspect is not perfect, the industry must endure the suffering of high logistics costs.

The third foundation in China is rich human resources. Now there are more than 180 million high -quality labor population with more than 180 million high -quality labor. Base.

The fourth aspect is policies. For more than 40 years of reform and opening up, my country's macro -control policy reserves have become richer and richer. This year's government work report has made more detailed deployment of seven policies such as macro policies, micro -policies, structural policies, scientific and technological policies, reform and opening up policies, regional policies and social policies. The policies issued by the report are in place, and domestic confidence is confident to deal with changes in the international environment this year. (Reporter Zhang Xiaoyu)

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