The Federal Reserve "Eagle" whistle all over the world!The photovoltaic sector has rebounded first, and the northbound capital continues to "buy and buy". A shares are expected to show their own.

Zhongxin Jingwei August 29th. A shares are going out of independence?

On the 29th, the three major stock index opened low, the Shanghai index fell 1.02%, the deep index fell 1.23%, and the GEM fell 1.53%. Photovoltaic, sea transport, and semiconductor declines, and the concepts of robots, energy storage, CROs, virtual power plants, consumer electronics, and lithium batteries have fallen. Nearly 4,200 stocks were opened, and the entrepreneurial board finger lost 2600 points. In terms of new shares, the new shares of Science and Technology Board Hengshuo's shares opened, and the bidding for the rally was 25.51%.

However, the Shanghai Index and Chuang Index had become popular before noon. As of the afternoon, the three major stock indexes have narrowed, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell 0.14%, and the GEM index fell 0.24%. The concept of semiconductor, photovoltaic, and military industry recovers.

Today, the A -share opening is about around, and the semiconductor and component sectors quickly rebound. Tuo Jing Technology rose more than 10%, Dongwei Director, Shengmei Shanghai, Xinyuan Micro, Lichen Micro, Dongxin, and Lunlun Electronics rose more than 5%.

Immediately, the consumer electronics sector quickly recovered, and Feirongda, Guoguang Electric, Jinlong Mechanical and Electrical, Fenida Technology, Fuliwang, and Linknaa increased.

The national defense military sector has risen, and the increase in Guangwei's compound materials, torch electronics, China Shipbuilding Technology, Hangyu Technology, Filihua, and Guorui Technology have increased significantly.

Judging from the main funds trajectory. The net inflow of 11 main funds exceeds 100 million yuan.

The Wind data on the market shows that Bona Film's net inflow exceeding 700 million yuan is far ahead. , Zhongdian Xingfa, Guoguang Electric, Luzhou Laojiao, Northern Huachuang, and Lixin Energy Net inflow exceeding 100 million yuan.

Among them, Hongye Futures has won 17 daily limit since its listing and trading on August 5th, setting a record for the number of listed companies in the listed company this year. Hongye Futures is the fourth listed futures company in A shares, with a issuance price of 1.86 yuan.

In fact, the prospectus of Hongye Futures shows that the agent futures of the company's domestic futures are low. , 0.64%, 0.21%, 0.74%. From 2019 to 2021, the company's revenue increased from 645 million yuan to 1.64 billion yuan, and net profit increased from 212.664 million yuan to 80.215 million yuan.

For the recent significant fluctuations in stock prices, as of now, the company's operating situation is normal, and the internal and external operating environment has not changed significantly.

The northbound funds bought over 2 billion yuan in half a day. Last week, the Northbound funds also bought continuously on the 25th and 26th, with the amount of 1.671 billion yuan and 5.151 billion yuan, respectively.

Global capital market fluctuations

Throughout the Asian market, the Japanese and Korean stock index opened down, the Nikkei 225 Index fell 1.7%, the Japanese East Stock Index fell 1.6%, and the South Korean KOSPI index fell 2%. The MSCI Asia -Pacific Index once fell 2.2%, the largest decline since June 13, and the worst performance of technology and industrial stocks. Japan led the Asian stock market with a decline of nearly 3%.

As of 11:30, the major Asia -Pacific stock market fell across the board. The 225 index of Nikkei fell 2.74%at 27857.5 points; the South Korean variety index fell 2.32%at 2423.53 points; the Australian S & P 200 index fell 2%at 6961.4 points; %At 11527.04 points.

In addition, the US dollar index continued to rise today, and the daily increase expanded to 0.43%, a new high since 2002. Non -US currency declined, the pound refreshed the low in March 2020 against the US dollar, and the daily decline expanded to 0.56%. The euro fell to 0.9926 against the US dollar.

On the news, Powell "put the eagle" on Friday Eastern Time. The Federal Reserve's Jackson Hall Annual Conference made a harsh commitment to curb inflation, and he was expected to continue to raise interest rates.

The Associated Press reported that the Federal Reserve Meste believed that Powell conveyed a very strong message to resolutely allow inflation to achieve the goal. It is considered to increase interest rates to more than 4%, and then keep at this level. It is expected that the economy will not decline, but the economic growth rate is lower than the trend.

As soon as the news came out, the US capital market fluctuated violently on that day, and the three major indexes of the US stocks closed down the board. Among them, the Dow fell 1008.38 points.

In this regard, on the 28th local time, the US Congress Federal Senator Elizabeth Vallen said that he was worried that the Fed would "fall into a recession" and interest rate hikes could cause millions of people to lose their jobs.

Reuters reports that the radicals of central banks of various countries have increased their global short -term yields. At the same time, as investors prize at the final economic decline, the US Treasury curve has further inverted.

How to get in September

There are only two days left in the August trading day. How to predict the future market?

Global perspective, Goldman Sachs believes that commodities are the best assets in the late stage of investment cycle. Recently, the decline in raw material prices provides a good intervention point. Although the impact of commodities on the economic recession exceeds any other assets, the real fundamentals show that the market is in the most tense period in decades. However, Goldman Sachs acknowledged that the macro situation is still full of challenges, and the US dollar may be further appreciated in the short term. In the commodities, due to the coming maintenance season, petroleum products may lead the next step in the entire industry. CITIC's Huang Wentao's team proposed that although the US stocks fell sharply after the Jackson Hall meeting, the S & P 500 was still at 4,000 points, which was obvious from the early low point. In the context of more than 3%, it is not high. It is expected that the market will also repeat the market in data and tightening expectations. The trend opportunities of U.S. stocks and US bonds will be limited, but there is a band -type market. Because the interest rate hike cycle may be longer than expected, the economic recession is temporarily insufficient, and the logic of transaction recession may still need to wait.

From the perspective of A shares, the Western Strategy Yi Bin team believes that the signal released by the Federal Reserve President Powell at the annual meeting of the Global Central Bank shows that the Fed will play the role of a strong hawk in the future. Fluctuations in the global equity market.

The Western Strategy Yi Bin team pointed out that the value of the allocation of large -cap stocks is prominent. The current market core contradiction is still a tug -of -war between inflation and economy. Although the rise in the CPI in July is less than expected, the trend has not changed. With the announcement of financial data, economic restoration in the second half of the year still has bumps. At the same time, with the expectations of overseas interest rate hikes to rise again, the US dollar index further strengthened, and the RMB exchange rate was under pressure again. It is necessary to be alert to the short -term volatility amplification. From the perspective of asset allocation, the allocation value of large -cap stocks is gradually prominent, and the overall market style will return to the leader.

In the short term, as the window period of important meetings approaches, food, energy and information security will still be the core of the market, focusing on the short -term performance inflection point, long -term transformation expectations of thermal power, there are still large supply and demand gaps in the fourth quarter The Xinchuang industry determined by the trend; on the other hand, European economic risks have risen, focusing on investment opportunities in subdivided industries such as aluminum, zinc, vitamin, fertilizer pesticides, and titanium pour in "European replacement". In the middle period, inflation is still the most important investment in the year. It continues to pay attention to the concepts of popular consumption concepts such as food and beverages that benefit from inflation, stable performance, consumer industry such as home appliances and medicine, and virtual reality, games and other popular consumption concepts.

Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, analyzed that the heavy frustration of US stocks on Friday will not have much impact on the trend of A -share in the mid -term. Mainly because the positions of A shares and US stocks are different, US stocks are in high levels, and A shares have been picked up from the bottom. Therefore, the impact of US stocks on A shares is short -term. In the mid -term, with the gradual recovery of the economy, the profitability of listed companies has also rebounded in the second half of the year. It is expected that the A -share market will continue to start a structural market, focusing on new energy sectors with high prosperity. Growing consumer sector.

British Securities Li Daxiao said that such a significant solution of U.S. stocks has not been significantly affected by the stress of global stock markets and Hong Kong stocks. Because A shares are expected to perform relatively well because of their toughness, blue chip stocks may become mainstay, thereby reducing the market's mainstay, which reduces the market’s market. Fall. The decline in A shares is much smaller than US stocks.

Regarding the tightening of the US dollar liquidity, Huatai Securities Research Report pointed out that under the environment of the current cycle node, that is, the risk of recession is facing the risk of recession, but the inflation pressure has not yet retreated, it also supports the large -lasting national national debt, and the required products that are required. Relative value. Specifically, on the one hand, the high -long national Treasury interest rate benefits from the demand for risk aversion under the fall of global risk preferences and the decline of long -term inflation expectations. In the high -inflation environment, the required consumption shows a strong rigid demand, and the relative bargaining ability is stronger, so it usually has a good relative performance.

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