Fengkou Think Tank · Chief Connection | Yang Delong: The Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike is reduced, which has little impact on A shares

Liu Xiao, chief reporter of Fengkou Finance Liu Xiao

On Friday, at the annual Jackson Hall Central Bank Annual Conference, the Federal Reserve President Powell made an eagle statement saying that in order to cope with the highest level of inflation faced in the United States in the past 40 years, it firmly confronted it with interest rate hikes. The entire US stocks have a heavy plug. On August 29, on the first trading day of this week, the A -share market rose throughout the day, and the three major indexes rose and decline. As of the closing, the Shanghai Index rose 0.14%, the Shenzhen Index fell 0.34%, the GEM index fell 0.37%, and the annual turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen cities was 845.8 billion yuan. More than 3,000 stocks in the two cities rose, and the northbound funds bought 1.928 billion yuan throughout the day.

How will the Fed ’s interest rate hikes affect A shares? What are the main investment lines in the second half of the year? On August 29th, Yang Delong, managing director and chief economist of the Haikou Fund before the Dialogue of Fengkou Finance.

Fengkou Finance: The Fed Chairman Powell made an eagle statement. Affected by this, the US stocks fell into the entire line on Friday. What impact will the Fed's continuous interest rate hike bring on A shares?

Yang Delong: The Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hikes have a certain impact on the global capital market, and the impact on the A -share market has not greatly. The main reason is that the Sino -US monetary policy is not synchronized. The main problems facing the central bank of my country are the steady growth. Therefore, this year my country's central bank adopted me as the main monetary policy and adopted the method of cutting interest rate cuts. Last week, the central bank lowered the interest rate level of the one -year and five -year LPR. The deviation of the China -US monetary policy may have an impact on the short -term trend of the RMB exchange rate, but the impact on my economy was not great. The second reason is that the position of the Sino -US stock market is different. The US stocks are in the stage where the bull market has fallen at a high level, while A shares are in the background of the bottom. This also means that US stocks have fallen, and A shares have a bottom rebound, so the impact on A shares is not great.

The annual Jackson Hall Conference has always attracted much attention from the world because it is the most important central bank conference except the Eight Federal Reserve Best Conferences. The Jackson Hall Annual Conference is one of the oldest central bank conferences in the world and is also known as the "Davos" forum, which is also known as the governor of the central bank. From August to September each year, central bank officials, Nobel Prize winners and top scholars from all over the world gathered the town of Jackson, Huai Russia, to discuss the urgent issues of global economic and monetary policy. Published a keynote speech, and revealed that the steering of monetary policy has always been the long tradition of the central bank's governor, especially the chairman of the Federal Reserve, which may reveal important topics such as whether the next step of monetary policy turns at the conference speech. The attention of world investors. At the Jackson Hall Central Bank Annual Conference held on Friday, the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a very brief but firm speech, which made investors who had fantasized the US monetary policy soon disappointed. Therefore, US stocks have also fallen sharply, and the decline in U.S. stocks has also dragged down the performance of other global stock markets.

Wind Financial: Can the Fed continue to raise interest rates and shrink the meter. Can it effectively suppress inflation? What impact will it have on the US economy?

Yang Delong: Since the beginning of this year, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates four times, which is greater than the interest rate hike at a time, and faster than one rate hike. It is expected that the Fed will raise interest rates by 50 basis or 75 basis points in September to cope with high inflation. Although the CPI in the United States fell from a high position in July, the core CPI was still relatively high. In order to break the expectations of monetary policy in order to break the expectations of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve must firmly raise interest rates to prevent inflation from rebounding. The high inflation faced by the Fed now is actually caused by the large water release in the past two years. Since April 2020, the Fed has adopted unlimited looseness to stimulate the economy to stimulate the economy. As the first implementation of a zero interest rate policy in the history of the world's central bank, it has led to surge in commodity prices and high inflation. Russia and Ukraine, which suddenly broke out in February this year, further pushed the prices of oil, natural gas and agricultural products, and exacerbated inflation faced by European and American countries, which also made it difficult to treat inflation. The influence of the Fed's continuous interest rate hikes on the US economy is obvious. In the first two quarters of this year, the US economy continued to grow negatively in the first two quarters of the United States, and it fell into a technical recession. Of course, considering that the current American companies are still strong and the employment rate of the United States is very high, it is not yet possible to determine whether the US economy has fallen into a decline. However, if inflation is high, it may have a significant impact on the next growth situation of the US economy.

Fengkou Finance: Combined with the current economic situation, what are the main investment lines of A shares in the second half of the year? What is logic?

Yang Delong: From the perspective of economic transformation, new energy and consumption are the two most benefit of economic transformation. It is also the two major directions that are most likely to have explosive growth in the future.

In terms of new energy, the new energy performance has been prominent this year. Although it is not as exclusive as last year, it is still eye -catching. The main reason is that new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power and other fields are high. Under the situation of general growth or even negative growth in other industries, new energy has maintained a double growth trend. The Qianhai Open Source Clean Energy Fund focused on the new energy vehicle industry chain, photovoltaic, wind power, hydrogen energy and other industries in the new energy vehicle industry chain, in order to seize the opportunity of carbon neutrality. In the current market structure, new energy is still the direction that everyone must focus on. Consumption is a slowdown in the influence of the epidemic in the short term. It is like a compressed spring. Once the rebound may be stronger in the future, it may be relatively strong. The opportunity of the epidemic era after the layout is a better strategy through the layout of some wrong consumer white horse stocks. The Qianhai open source high -quality faucet fund, the second quarter report shows that in addition to the layout of new energy leaders, it focuses on consumer white horse stocks. It is difficult to do value investment, especially in the face of short -term market fluctuations, whether you can firmly configure the industry and good companies, or lay out high -quality funds to seize the opportunity of the next wave of market rising is the key to gaining investment. In the field of consumption, my country's economy is currently in the stage of recovery. In the first half of the year, due to the influence of super -expected factors in the first half of the year, the economic growth has fallen significantly, especially in the second quarter of economic growth to 0.4%, slightly higher than zero growth. In order to cope with the slowdown of economic growth, the State Council issued six major aspects of 33 policies in the first half of the year, and will gradually land in the second half of the year. Last week, the Guoju of the Council was once again introduced to the 19th policies of stimulating economy to increase the stimulus. The main uncertain factors facing economic growth in the second half of the year are the repeated epidemic conditions in some localities, and the role of consumption suppression is still large. The current consumption is the most important engine to promote my country's economic growth. According to statistics, the contribution of consumption to GDP in 2021 has exceeded the sum of investment and exports, reaching more than 60%. The epidemic should be defended and the economy must be stabilized. Once the epidemic control measures are adjusted, consumption is expected to gain a recovery increase, thereby driving economic recovery.

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