The National Development and Reform Commission will make another shot to protect the pork market to supply the industry to predict the performance of pig prices in the second half of the year

On August 29, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a news that in order to ensure the supply of pork market during the holidays, the relevant departments will start to put the government pork reserves in batches from September and guide local linkage to the reserves. At the same time, pay close attention to market dynamics and maintain the normal order of the market. It is recommended that the farming (field) households rationally arrange production and operation to maintain the rhythm of normal outlets; related enterprises orderly release pork commercial inventory in an orderly manner and increase market supply.

In this regard, Liu Jintai, a researcher at the Dajiu cargo agricultural product, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that from June 2021 to April this year, the number of pigs released by the National Bureau of Statistics has remained declined, which caused the market supply of pigs to column. The price of pigs has continued to rise since late March. At present, the supply of pigs is weak, and the demand side is affected by factors such as cooling, the arrival of school seasons in various places, and the approaching of "two sections". The seasonal demand for pigs is increased, and downstream consumption will continue to pick up. It is in line with market expectations to make stable pigs for pork reserves.

Specifically, since the National Development and Reform Commission has shot many times in early July this year, although the price of pigs has fallen from the year of July 5 (3 yuan 23.04 yuan/kg, three yuan 24.35 yuan/kg), it has fallen, but Since July 28, pig prices have obviously heated up again. According to data from Huiyi.com, on August 26, the market price of ternary pigs in the country was reported at 22.21 yuan/kg, a recent low of July 28 (20.36 yuan/kg inside three yuan, 20.62 yuan/kg outside three yuan)) It has risen by about 9%; the national pig market data shows that on August 29, the market price of ternary pigs in the country was 22.48 yuan/kg, which was also about 9%from July 28.

"Early release of the news of the storage information will undoubtedly give a needle stabilizer for the consumption side of the premise, and also cool down the recent rising pig prices." Wang Lingyun, a pig analyst at the Shanghai Ganglian Agricultural Products Division, accepts the Securities Daily reporter. During the interview, it was said that the central reserve meat was mainly emergency supply and market regulation; local reserve meat was regional emergency and guaranteed major festivals. With the arrival of the Mid -Autumn Festival, the storage of meat is taken into account the comprehensive status of the market and consumer demand.

"In the later period, pig prices will still show a trend of fluctuation, but it is expected to increase limited." Liu Jinyu predicts.

Wang Jun, a researcher at the Ministry of Futures Investment Consulting, also held a similar point of view. In his opinion, from the perspective of cycle, profit, and supply and demand, a new round of pig cycle has opened in April this year. However, in the context of the overall supply tight and demand, the pig price is expected to maintain a strong pattern in the second half of the year. However, considering that the capacity is gradually recovering, the subjects are prepared for the peak season supply, and the policy regulation is expected to work at any time. In general, pig prices in the second half of the year are still stable.

- END -