The middle price of the renminbi is reduced by 104 points!Institution: Limited probability of great depreciation

Zhongxin Jingwei, August 30th. According to the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, the intermediate price of the RMB in the foreign exchange market on August 30 was reported at 6.8802, which was reduced by 104 basis points.

Screenshot source: China Foreign Exchange Trading Center

On the 30th, the US dollar opened 6.9050 against the RMB (on the shore), and the session fell to 6.9218 for a time. It is now reported to 6.9184, and temporarily rose to less than 6.92. The US dollar remained weak against the offshore RMB, and now drops slightly by 0.12%, a decline of 84 basis points, 6.9239.

US dollar against the RMB daily trend chart (on the shore) Source: Wind

Recently, the renminbi has continued to weaken, and the US dollar against the RMB (on the shore) continued to decline from 6.32 from the beginning of the year, and fell below 6.9, 6.91, 6.92 in a row yesterday (29th), depreciating more than 8%in the past six months.

Zhao Wei, the chief economist of Guojin Securities, believes that the external suppression of a strong dollar is the main reason for the depreciation of the RMB in this round, and the spread of China and the United States has also affected. Recently, geopolitical storms have resurrected, frequent weather in extreme weather, increasing the contradiction between energy supply and demand, and promoting the rapid rise in energy prices such as natural gas. Compared with the United States with lower energy dependence, the energy system of the euro zone is more vulnerable and the impact is more serious. In this context, the differentiation of the fundamentals of the United States and Europe has enhanced the Fed's tightening expectations after the annual meeting of the Global Central Bank of Jackson Hall.

Zhao Wei said that the depth of China -US spreads also affects the recent depreciation of the RMB. After the Federal Reserve raising interest rates on July 28, Beijing time, the target interest rate of the US Federal Fund rose to 2.5%; the short -term policy interest rate in China and the United States appeared for the first time since 2008. After the central bank's 10bp (base point) on August 15, this inversion was further deepened. Under the continuous differentiation of policy interest rates, the yield of 10 -year Treasury bonds in China and the United States has been upside down and quickly widening from August 5th, which has also suppressed the RMB exchange rate.

Regarding the strength of the US dollar, Shanxi Securities Research reports that the Federal Reserve ’s strong interest rate hike is expected to continue to strengthen, and the probability of raising interest rates in September to increase the probability of 75bp is a significant reason to induce this round of strong dollar.

The agency said that the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike expects to strengthen+US dollar risk aversion value. Since August 22, the trend of strong US dollars has been strengthened. On the 26th, Powell released the "Eagle School" remarks at the Jackson Hall Annual Conference, and the US dollar index was closed at 108.86, an increase of 2.85%from the beginning of August, an increase of 13.43%from the beginning of the year. The RMB exchange rate has also continued to depreciate under the traction of offshore prices, and it has continuously renovated a new low within the year.

In terms of exchange rate trend, most institutions believe that the US dollar will still maintain strong in the short term. Zhao Wei said that in the short term, the strength of the US dollar may continue, and the suppression of the RMB exchange rate is still there, but the pressure is relatively controllable. The limited supply of energy is not a short -term issue, and the rise in price resonance may be the norm. This not only exacerbates the risk of inflation, but also suppresses the production of prosperity, erosion of profits, and impacts residents' consumption. At the same time, at the Jackson Hall meeting, Fed Chairman Powell said "must stick to interest rate hike until the goal is completed." Under the combination of U.S. and European fundamentals and tightening expectations, the stage of the US dollar is strong or difficult to change, and it will still constitute a depreciation pressure on the renminbi.

Shanxi Securities also believes that the US dollar will still be strong in the short term.

The agency believes that Powell hinted on the 26th to control inflation is the first priority. Whether employment fluctuations and economy can achieve "soft landing" will not raise interest rates. Best provided a solid support for Qiangfeng.

Secondly, the economic conditions of the euro zone and Japan have not seen significant signs of improvement. Under the interest rate hikes, the debt risk of the euro zone marginal country and emerging market countries has risen, the supply of energy is tight, and the risk aversion attribute will further help the value of the US dollar value. Essence

In addition, the marginal changes of the RMB exchange rate may depend on the improvement of domestic economic data and the repair of the confidence of residents and enterprise departments. In the short term, the RMB still faces a certain depreciation pressure. Therefore, the probability of rapid depreciation and sharp depreciation are relatively limited. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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