Nancai fast comments: August PMI shows that the level of manufacturing prosperity has recovered

Zhao Wei (Chief Economist of Guojin Securities)

Today, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the manufacturing procurement manager index (PMI) in August, with a value of 49.4%, which is lower than the critical point, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month.

PMI is slightly recovered and the production needs differentiation, all of which are below the critical value

The manufacturing PMI is slightly better than expected, the production is plain and demand is slightly rising. In August, the manufacturing PMI recorded 49.4%, which was still lower than the critical value, and the average expected 49.2%and 49.0%of the previous value was slightly improved. The new orders and new export orders have risen by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month.

The production is plain, which may be partially affected by high temperature weather and local. In August, the accumulation of raw material inventory, increased orders in hand, and the decline in the inventory of the finished product, or the pointing of the production of the production is not a drag that the demand was weakened. It was more of some influence of production itself, especially in August, high temperature and power supply in some areas and tight power supply. In the context, orderly power limit measures taken by some areas may interfere with production activities.

Large and medium -sized enterprises have risen, and small enterprises continue to fall. In August, large and medium -sized enterprises PMI rose 0.7 and 0.4 percentage points, respectively. The former has returned to the critical value, and small enterprises have fallen to 47.6%for 2 consecutive months. Small enterprises have fallen and demand rises, but new export orders for small enterprises continue to fall.

The non -manufacturing PMI continues to fall, but the new order of the construction industry has reached a new high in the year.

The service industry and the construction industry PMI doubles, or partially affected by epidemic and high temperature weather. In August, the non -manufacturing PMI recorded 52.6%and fell 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the service industry and the construction industry PMI fell 0.9 and 2.7 percentage points to 51.9%and 56.5%, or part of the epidemic and high temperature pair pair Interference of offline activities; but the expectations of service industry activities and new orders have fallen for two consecutive months, and subsequent changes still need to be paid attention to.

Steady growth of the "force" or continuing to appear, the new orders of the construction industry have reached a new high in the year. The decline of the construction industry PMI may be affected by high temperature on construction. The expectations of construction activities and new orders will improve, especially the new orders rose to 53.4%in August in April, and the new year is new. Accelerated, the asphalt operating rate continued to rise after a brief fall, and cement inventory continued to fall, and the price rose.

Therefore, the author believes that the new round of steady growth of the "force" and landing are also accelerating, and the effects and elasticity still need to be followed. The "quasi -finance" and special debt "increased", superimposed part of the lag of some front funds, providing "renewal" for the steady growth of the stable growth in the second half of the year; the stable growth and landing have accelerated, and the support of demand or gradually appearing.

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