Daoda Investment Notes: How to choose the key position?

Yesterday (August 31), the track stocks adjusted sharply, and the "stock god" Buffett reduced its holdings to take the capital with a little shares, while the investors in A shares lost huge losses.

Of course, the cause of the decline cannot be blamed on the "stock god". After all, the adjustment of the new energy vehicle is not a day or two, but it is a high -profile photovoltaic. Essence The early rebound was too strong, coupled with the end of the interim report disclosure, making some of the huge increasing track stocks "original shape", the performance and valuation departed, and the fund running was normal.

For the new energy, Dago's point of view is mainly to see the next wide box shock. If the box is clearly built in the future, you can find the opportunity of the middle line on the lower edge, but this is not a problem to consider now. , Patiently observe and wait for the trend to make a clear decision.

In the short term, taking the photovoltaic sector as an example, the current sector index has fallen near the dense transaction area below. It may be adjusted to stop falling and stable. If you have a short -term transaction ability, you can try the opportunity to try the opportunity. Essence

However, under the general decline of the market yesterday, not only our ordinary investors, but also a private equity leader. According to media reports, the private equity leader has three products that hit the early warning line (net value of 0.8 yuan).

At the beginning of the year, the big man cut the meat and was empty and sold out of A shares. He believed that there would not be opportunities until the third quarter, but the track stocks "do not talk about martial arts". Until July, it may not be able to stand it in July, and then he rushed in to chase, because his net value curve of his product fluctuated significantly in July.

This is actually a signal. The big guy can't help but chase the rise and fall, usually the sign of the market turning point; another signal is the number of institutions research reports. %, You have to be particularly careful.

The day before yesterday, I was still telling the photos shared by netizens. The sub -forum of the consumer theme of a seller was cold. As a result, the big consumption rose yesterday; in addition, medicine performed well. It really verified the old saying of investing: "Buy no one to ask for an extravagant place, selling it at the time of human voice."

The shareholders of the blue -chip white horse suffered more than a year and finally ate a "dumpling". The disclosure of the A -share listed company is over, and the overall feeling is that the performance of Big Blue Chip and China Interconnection is generally speaking, at least much better than expected. The meaning of repairing is reasonable.

However, from the day before yesterday to yesterday, the market feels strange. For example, many Chinese stocks announced their performance the night before, which can be said to be exceeded, but the results were smashed; for example, yesterday’s A -share market also had a low -level stock with a good performance. Essence

We can analyze from the perspective of the fund game. Fortunately, this strange disk was finally come to an end after the interim disclosure was over. In the final analysis, there is still a problem in market emotion, and the confidence of funds is insufficient.

This lack of confidence can also be seen from yesterday's low blue chip stocks. Great consumption, big finance, say that they are stronger than the overall market. Said that they announced that low stocks have risen? Maybe the intensity is not enough, and it is more a manifestation of risk aversion after capital coming out of high stocks. When the track stocks fell the previous two days, the heavy stocks should take the initiative to strengthen, that would be a perfect switch. The problem is not big now, but it is not perfect.

Not perfect enough means that even switching will not happen overnight, and it will not rise immediately. Will big consumption become the main line of rotation next? It may be a big question mark. But for now, it is indeed a good transition direction. If you want to participate, it is mainly based on short -term ideas.

Great financial performance is good, but it is not strong enough. The day before yesterday, Dago focused on the brokerage stocks. The securities sector index was indeed very different from the previous. At present, it has shocked for 14 trading days. This sideways is explosive. Essence

In terms of short -term emotions, the daily limit of individual stocks continued to decrease, and the market height dropped to 3 consecutive boards, which were faults on it. Under normal circumstances, the height of the market to the market is a freezing point of emotions. In the short term, there will be a high probability of warming and repairing.

In addition, a good phenomenon also appeared in the short -term, especially the national optical appliances the day before yesterday, the impact on short -term funds is relatively negative. Yesterday, there was a stock that dared to "anti -nuclear". The black sesame plate was staged in the sky. If the stock continues to perform today, this will be obviously beneficial to the mood.

Based on yesterday's market, Da Ge felt that the main points were mainly the following:

First of all, yesterday, the volume fell and released larger short kinetic energy. If you can't fall in the future, the rebound will be greater. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index's trend on the roller coaster yesterday, the impact on investors is obviously there. There are more than 800 stocks with a decline of more than 5%of the two cities. This is also rare in the near future.

However, the market volume falls, and Dago generally does not feel any bad things, which shows that the air release is relatively strong. As long as there is no expected sharp air, this decline is difficult to continue.

The trend structure of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index yesterday is currently near the critical position. It is not ruled out that there will still be a move today, but as long as the decline cannot be released, the short -term probability will rebound, and the rebound may be greater. You can see near 3300 points temporarily. Considering the situation and weight of the small and medium -sized disk, if a rebound, no resonance occurs. Secondly, wait patiently for the generation of the new main line. Recently, the signs of funds from the track stocks have been obvious. Yesterday, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index and the CSI 300 Index appeared significantly. This type of positioning can be regarded as a signal. However, because the sectors that have been mobilized in recent days are just changing, and the continuous money -making effect is not good, and they need to be observed.

Whether you can switch successfully, it is still unknown. You can try it in light warehouses, but do not aggravate the position to chase the rise and fall. The alienation section can be remembered first, more funds can be followed by the direction of the sector and then follow.

Borrowing a big guy's point of view: investment needs to "follow", "follow" is not competing; changes at any time, changes with the potential, seeking truth from facts, self -correction. At this time, I still reinstated the market to do hard work, and it is undoubtedly that I can't live with myself and money. Still, the cost of following the market is always the smallest. I would rather miss it, don't make a mistake!

(Zhang Daoda)

According to the latest regulations of relevant national departments, this note does not involve any operating suggestions, and the risk of entering the market should be borne.

Daily Economic News

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