Non -agricultural data is coming tomorrow, which will affect geometry now?

Beijing time this Friday (September 2), the precious metal market will once again usher in important data -US non -agricultural employment report in August. At present, the mainstream of the market is expected that the increase in non -agricultural employment in the United States in August will decrease from 528,000 in July to 318,000, and the unemployment rate will stabilize at 3.5%. The recovery of the labor market is still strong.

(This article is an original article of China Gold Network. The content is for reference only, and does not constitute operating suggestions or investment guidelines.)

During this week, before the announcement of the non -agricultural employment report, the "small non -agricultural" -automatic data processing company (ADP) published by the United States in August increased by only 132,000, which was significantly lower than the expected 300,000. ADP said that the reason for the decline in data is that August has slowed the speed of recruitment in August. It is worth noting that the data of ADP showed that the salary in August increased by 7.6%year -on -year, which exacerbated the market's concerns about the salary -inflation spiral effect.

At the annual annual meeting of the central bank last Friday, the Fed Chairman Powell once again emphasized its stance on inflation, implying that under the premise that the price has not returned to stability, the Fed has done the slowdown in economic growth in the future or even falling into a decline and unemployment rate. Preparation for rising. According to the experience of the 1970s and 1980s, the Fed is still willing to exchange for the stability of prices at the cost of sacrificing economic growth. Although the level of consumer prices in the United States in July has fallen from 9.1%from the historical high in June to 8.5%, it can be expected that regardless of whether the inflation turning point has appeared, the remaining time and the annual average of the year will be at a high level. It also takes a long time to return to the Fed's policy target level.

The reason why inflation is difficult to decline is that in addition to the impact of supply and geopolitical conflict, excessive force of early currency and fiscal stimuli, labor resources mismatch and rising labor costs for corporate units are also very important. Among the consumer price index points data, the project with the greatest contribution to the price increase is no longer the price change of food, energy, etc., but the core service costs of professional business and information services. Therefore, this Friday non -agricultural report, in addition to conventional new employment and unemployment data data, may be more important attention points to salary, corporate labor productivity and other data related to inflation. If the salary continues to rise significantly, it may increase the risk of confirmation at the inflection point of the United States. The market interpretation is that the Fed will suppress inflation with a more aggressive interest rate hike path, which is sharp for gold.

The most important reason for the trend of the precious metal market, especially the gold market, is the game of high inflation and currency tightening cycle. In the past 2 to 3 months, the market has been repeatedly digesting the influence of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. After entering September, there is another level that needs to be followed on the Monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, because from September, the upper limit of the Fed ’s monthly shrinkage will be doubled from $ 47.5 billion to $ 95 billion, mainly involving mainly involved Assets are medium- and long -term government bonds.

In the last time the Federal Reserve shrinkage cycle, the long and short -term interest rates in the United States have increased significantly, but there are still some obvious differences between the shrinkage and the previous shrinkage. First, the cycle of the shrinkage and interest rate hikes is shorter. It is the current US long and short -term interest rate inverted, and the economy is facing large downward pressure. These two differences may slow down the actual increase of interest rates on this round of watch, which will give some support for gold prices in turn.

Technically, the author continues to maintain the view that the price of gold in the year will remain unchanged from 1,700 to 1900 US dollars/ounce. As long as the price does not fall below $ 1680/ounce, it will be difficult to open the space for further significant declines.

- END -