Daily True Gold | The Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike is expected to heat up, and the price of gold is under pressure falling

Today's guest: Liu Zhongshan, a researcher at the Beijing Gold Economic Development Research Center

This week, the international gold price opened at $ 1746/ounce, and rushed to a maximum of $ 1756/ounce, and the lowest exploration to $ 1727/ounce. The gold price showed the technical trend first this week.

In terms of fundamentals, the current price of gold is running around the three main lines, and the Fed's monetary policy, geopolitical conflict, and staged risk aversion emotions. At present, the market focus is mainly on the development of the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike policy. Regarding whether the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike will correspond to the rise of gold prices, the author believes that the current stage will not be, because the background of the current interest rate hike is different from the previous period, and the location and corresponding logic of the gold price are different.

From the current environment, gold prices are relatively high in history. After the disintegration of the Bretton Forest system, the price of gold has been on the way from $ 35/ounce, and has not fallen significantly. In the context of risk aversion, Federal Reserve's fiscal stimulus policy, and geographical conflict, gold prices have reached historical highs. However, it should be noted whether these three factors will form up again to support the price of gold again to break through the historical high again. From the current point of view, it is difficult. The main reason is that the hedging expectations are expected to cool down. The high -level inflation makes the Fed's short -term easing difficult to achieve. Even at the expense of economic growth, it can suppress inflation through interest rate hikes. In addition to the supporting role brought about by the sharp changes in the geographical situation, the overall support of gold prices is weakening. Therefore, from the current point of view, under the background of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, the possibility of entering the downward cycle has increased.

The Fed still adheres to the rate hike path, and it will not stop before the inflation rate decreases significantly. The rhythm of interest rate hikes will be adjusted according to inflation and economic growth. The short -term probability will not turn. Affected by this, the U.S. dollar index has risen strongly this week, which has a relatively obvious pressure on the price of gold, and the US dollar index is close to 20 years high, release the strong signal of the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hikes to return to the United States. Repair, enter the downward cycle.

In terms of crude oil prices, Saudi Arabia has hinted that OPEC may reduce production and support oil prices, but the current global economic signal and decline in the stock market have caused crude oil prices to be under pressure. Under the repeated geographical situation and the contradiction between supply and demand, crude oil prices still have repeatedly. At present, crude oil has not exceeded the suppression of the daily technical indicators. Therefore, crude oil is still in the rebound stage, and the overall support for gold prices is limited.

Judging from the position of the Golden Trading Open Index Fund (ETF), the total position of ETF holds 984.38 tons, and the position reduction was 1.45 tons on August 22. On August 23, the position was reduced by 3.18 tons. pressure.

On the whole, the price of gold is facing mid -term pressure. It is expected to show a decline next week, with a operating range of 1,700 ~ 1770 US dollars per ounce. The short -term operation is mainly high -throw and strictly stop loss. It is not advisable to intervene in multiple orders. The above suggestions are for reference only.

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