Can emotions lead the index rebound?Note that these keywords -Daoda Dialogue Dr. Niu Niu

Source: WeChat public account "Daida" (WeChat public account ID: daoda1997)

This week, A -share is a trend of adjustment. The three major indexes are running in the lower channel of the small cycle. The lower position of blue -chores' heavy stocks have not become the market stabilizer. Essence Fortunately, although the index performed average on Friday, the emotion was warm, and the hotspots began to appear. It can be said that emotions walked in front of the index.

Can this emotional warmth lead the index attack? In the current market structure, what are the places to pay attention to? What are the important news that affect the market on weekends? Today, Dr. Niu and Dago discussed the topics that everyone cared about.

Dr. Niu: Hello, Da Ge. This week's market is a bit boring. It is difficult to operate a week. The two or eight -wheeled dynamic switching is not smooth. Without, will the index start to rebound here?

Daeda: Indeed, this week's quotation is the same as Dr. Niu. The three major A -share indexes are running in the lower channel of a small cycle. In addition, the transaction amount has shrunk continuously, and the overall feeling of the disk gives people is no vitality.

In addition, from the perspective of short -term emotions, except for Friday, the number of stocks in the other four trading days has decreased significantly compared with the previous. Strong stocks rose the daily limit on the day. Very bad. In this market, it is difficult to make money. It is very difficult. You don't have to operate it against the market. You can stick to it patiently and wait for the flowers to bloom.

Judging from the market situation this week, it is unlikely to continue this shock next week, and fluctuations should be increased. On Friday, the stocks of the market rose more or less, and the recovery appeared. It was driven by the overlook of the prosperity track. Judging from the market situation on Friday, Da Ge's understanding is that emotions have gone in front of the index, and the funds of a prophet of a prophets such as capital funds have taken the lead in making money.

As for whether the emotion can drive the index to warm up? My point of view is possible. The Shanghai Index received a fake Yin Cross Star on Friday, and the transaction volume once again shrunk to the recent land volume, indicating that the funds on the venue were too lazy to throw it. The last time the Shanghai index transaction volume was below 320 billion, it was May 9 this year. After adjusting the disk, the land volume appeared the next day and walked out of the Zhongyang Line low, and a wave of trend was not small. Therefore, the cross star on Friday also needed to pay attention to it.

Of course, history will not be simply repeated, not to mention the market situation and macro background at that time, which is very different from now. In terms of time, the probability of this rebound will last about one or two weeks, which is short -term. As for the longer cycle, Dago is very cautious about the current market situation. As long as the rebound of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index does not effectively break through 3308 points, it is the weak structure, and be careful of this rebound and the rebound in the first half of August to form symmetry. structure.

Originally, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index had built a symmetrical decline box in mid -to -late July. The market rebound in August also confirmed the pressure here. The high point is 3308 points. It's right.

Therefore, even if there is a rebound, my qualitative is still weak at present. In the operation, controlling positions must be controlled, and less than half warehouses can be used to protect the principal. Only in this way can there be more and better choices. The quilt is equivalent to losing the right to choose.

Dr. Niu: Last week we talked about the problem of market style switching. From the perspective of the market performance this week, the switching was not successful. How do you look at this phenomenon? Is there a chance for the new hotspot satellite Internet?

Daoda: Speaking of the problem of market style switching, at that time, the situation of the CSI 1000 Index, the Shanghai Stock 50 Index, and the financial stocks were combined, and the possibility of scissors difference in large and small -cap stocks was reduced. However, from the perspective of the market situation this week, this switching is still unsuccessful.

The reason is that the large-scale blue-chip stocks lack short-term catalytic and long-term logic. In addition, from the perspective of the game, the changes in the game market caused by public offering institutions have occurred in November to December, and it is currently too early. In the future, there may be opportunities to perform heavy shares, but in general, Dago is currently only looking at this style of switching, and continues to be optimistic about growth stocks.

Judging from the performance of A shares on Friday, the theme of the satellite Internet exploded. Nearly 20 stocks inside the sector increased, accounting for a quarter of the total number of households in the market. Drive the recovery of communication equipment, semiconductor and other sectors.

The news was stimulated by Huawei news. Huawei Mate50 had a new breakthrough in communication technology. "Breaking the sky upward". Finally, after the real hammer, the Huawei Mate50 series products have satellite communication functions.

When the market emotions are sluggish, a new theme that can drive emotional warming is to increase attention. As for the application scenarios of the satellite Internet and how much support can be brought to the performance of listed companies, this is not a question that is considering now. At present, it is more treated in short -term ideas. Huawei and Apple's new product launch conferences have been held since the 6th, and the risks of be careful of funding.

It is not important whether the satellite Internet is "a wave of streams" or the main line. It is necessary to treat it as a normal sector at the moment. For example, if you look at the opening on Monday, how to expect the daily limit the next day, how to expect it. The daily limit of the "word" daily limit is lower than expected and so on. The main line section may still be in the birth. In general, the market has entered a repeated stage of weak shocks, and the funds have begun to take trial and error slowly, but what is the specific main line, you have to follow the market evolution and watch while walking.

In comparison, due to the news of the US Department of Commerce, the semiconductor sector can be appropriately increased. This sector has not rebounded much in this round. At present, the sector index has fallen to a dense transaction area. The logic is stimulated and does not rule out continuous attention.

I still use the CSI 1000 Index to replace the rebound of the Jingqi track. It should be said that this rebound on Friday is in line with expectations, but after the subsequent index rebounds, the pressure will not rise. Long, be careful to continue the risk of falling.

Dago mentioned a lot of port shipping, planting and forestry. Although it did not perform too well, it was pretty good compared to the index. The port shipping sector index closed on Friday, which is a recovery confirmation of the previous box. The low point of the sector index on Thursday will be a good defensive point.

The media sector is also very active this week. I said less about this section, mainly because they have a close contact with the online game, and there is no more to say in terms of thinking. The two sections of the media and online games are at the low position since 2015. You can can do it. Perform band operations according to the mid -length thinking.

Dr. Niu: There are several more important news on weekends, such as: the State Council supports Shandong to develop strong renewable energy sources, "stock god" Buffett's company again reduced its holdings of BYD, the first index of the Beijing Stock Exchange, North Stock 50, etc., how to interpret these information?

Daeda: The State Council supports Shandong to develop strong renewable energy sources. Waiting wind power, photovoltaic, and nuclear power are named.

Judging from the "Opinions on Supporting Shandong Deepening and Deepening the conversion of new and old kinetic energy to promote green low -carbon high -quality development" issued recently, there are two main highlights this time. The eloquence of nuclear power is opened. Under the premise of ensuring absolute safety, the nuclear power is developed in an orderly manner.

If the news was placed a month ago, the wind power sector had to be collectively carnivated again. However, in the tide period of the track stocks, the funds are not daring to do more, and it is difficult to say whether it is sustainable. For the new energy track, Da Ge's previous point of view is clear. There is a need for heating rebound in the short term. In the middle period, it is necessary to wait for the interval to be clear and clear.

Buffett's company has once again reduced BYD, cash out 3 billion Hong Kong dollars, plus the reduction of holdings, totaling 6.5 billion Hong Kong dollars. The market is more worried about whether the "stock god" will clear the position. Anyway, this news is a sharpness compared to BYD and the entire new energy sector.

On Friday, the US stocks BYD ADR fell more than 6%, but BYD itself also favored it. In August, the sales volume of new energy vehicles reached 174,900 units, which was more up to 10. BYD Communication Conference exchanged, Wang Chuanfu personally attended investor research activities. This is relatively rare. Obviously, it is necessary to convey confidence to the organization and reduce the impact of sharpness.

The base date of the Bei Stock 50 Index is set on April 29, 2022. With the index, it is beneficial to the activation of the North Stock Exchange. At first, the GEM can quickly attract funds, which also drives A -share market. 20%of the space and falling space is indispensable, but the Beijing Stock Exchange is 30%, which will meet the funds with the demand for daily rotation. Obviously, the off -site public offering will also issue related financial products. Not only will promote liquidity activity, but it will also inject a lot of fresh blood into the overall stock market.

The news is also good for brokerage stocks. I have mentioned it several times for the securities sector. At present, this kind of horizontal disk will not be ruled out in the short term. How big it will be pulled out, it may be difficult for the time being.

In addition to the North Stock Exchange 50 Index, according to media reports, it was learned from the China Securities Regulatory Commission on September 2 that the government bond issuance business was successfully launched on the day of the Beijing Stock Exchange. In this way, the long -term funds of the Beijing Stock Exchange have more room for rotation, which is conducive to the ability of short -term positioning and enhancement of hedging, and avoid excessive impact on the short -term due to the excessive liquidity.

Generally speaking, the news on the weekend is half -mixed. Regardless of the news, it must be clear about the current market conditions, and now it is adjusting the trend. Although Dago looked at the index in the short term, as long as the rebound was not under pressure, it was weak. Therefore, the next few keywords of the operation must not be less: control positions, tighten the stop loss, tighten the profit, and reduce the frequency of operation.

(Zhang Daoda)

According to the latest regulations of relevant national departments, this note does not involve any operating suggestions, and the risk of entering the market should be borne.

Daily Economic News

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