The risk of world economic recession rises to rise

There are six main anti -winds affecting the recovery of the world economy

If you are allowed to spread by these six risks

IMF's prediction may be fulfilled

At the end of July, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) once again lowered the global economic growth forecast of today and next to 3.2 % and 2.9 %. At the same time, early warning, the risk of the world economy will be on the future. If the risks such as the upgrading of the Russian and Ukraine war, the expected high inflation expectations, and the tightening of the global financing environment will become a reality. The global economic growth rate is expected to further drop to 2.6 % and 2.0 %. In this scenario, the economic growth rate of the United States and the euro zone will be close to zero next year, which will have a negative chain reaction to other regions.

There are six main anti -winds affecting the recovery of the world economy. If the six major risks spread, the IMF's prediction may be fulfilled.

First, the currency of developed economies is radical. At present, except for Japan, most developed economies have encountered high inflation that have been encountered once a decades. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates for four consecutive times since March this year, just close to the level of neutral interest rates. In the first and second quarters, the US economy continued to grow negatively, and it has fallen into a technical decline. At the end of August, the White House had repaired the forecast value of this year's economic growth from 3.8 % in March to 1.4 %. At the Jackson Hall Annual Conference held recently, Fed Chairman Powell made it clear that although inflation has fallen in July, it is too early to stop it. Sexual monetary policy stance may lead to slowing economic growth and weak employment market. In July, the European Central Bank was forced by high inflation. In the first 11 years, it raised interest rates for the first time, and rate hikes 50bp at one time, ending the era of negative interest rates for eight years; next meeting, it will discuss whether to raise interest rates 50bp or 75bp, although the European train head- The German economy has been suspended in the second quarter.

The second is the influence of the upgrade of the Russian and Ukraine war. The joint sanctions between the Russian and Ukraine war and the West to Russia further blocked the renovation of global supply chain and aggravated the supply side. The rise in commodity prices such as energy and food has made global inflation more stubborn, and at the same time, it may cause extensive global energy and food security issues and social turmoil. In particular, European energy on Russia is large. If the sanctions on Russia's economic sanctions are upgraded, it may exacerbate the European energy crisis, further promote inflation, inhibit European growth, and even tighten the financial environment, and increase the risk of financial stability. To this end, the European Commission has reduced the expectations of the euro zone this year from 2.7 % to 2.6 %, and the expected value of next year will be reduced from 2.3 % to 1.4 %. While buying up the European natural gas futures and power futures, while selling short -selling euro and European stock indexes, it has become a common strategy for Wall Street hedge funds.

The third is the continued impact of the new coronary pneumonia. Although the severe rate and mortality rate of Omikon's mutant plants is low, its hiddenness and high contagion have continued to interfere with the global economic operation. Even in countries that have been unsealed and coexist with the virus, the epidemic still affects the resurgence of local people, logistics and service industries, and inflation has a broader foundation from the spread of goods to service. The scar effect of the epidemic inhibits the recovery rate of labor participation, superimposed population aging, exacerbating labor supply tensions, "salary -price" increases spiral continuously, increasing the risk of inflation expectations.

Fourth, the fragile emerging economy continues to be under pressure. According to the latest forecast of IMF, it is expected that global inflation is 8.3 % this year, of which developed economies will reach 6.6 %, emerging markets and developing economies will reach 9.5 %, and it is expected to maintain a high level in a longer period of time. Global high inflation returns, the currency chase of developed economies, the sharp rise in interest rates, and the financing environment tighten, which has increased the pressure of capital outflow and exchange rate depreciation of emerging economies. According to IMF, currently 60 % of low -income countries may have debt risks, and 30 % of emerging market countries have or approached debt crisis. The "storm" of the "economic + debt" dual crisis of the fragile emerging economy was on the dual crisis.

Fifth, the policy space of major national national policies is narrow. The emerging economy itself is poor due to poor medical and health conditions, small macroeconomic policy space, a large hit with the epidemic, and the overall economic recovery is relatively backward. The situation of developed economies is not optimistic. After several rounds of large -scale water irrigation since the global financial crisis in 2008, its fiscal and currency stimulus has basically been used to the extreme. Now it is generally carrying the "three mountains" of high prices, high debt and high assets. In the process of stabilizing the price, how to prevent the initiative to actively pierce debt and asset bubbles is a challenge that the Federal Reserve Chairman Walker has never experienced in the 1970s and 1980s. At the press conference after the July Betting Conference, Powell admitted that the road to soft landing in the US economy was getting narrower. If the price has not yet fallen, but the stock price has plummeted and the economic recession occurs, it will test the sufficientness and effectiveness of the policy toolboxes of developed economies.

Sixth, the mutual trust cooperation between the great powers is seriously damaged. Today, any crisis will be global, and no country can be outside. In the crisis response in 2008, the fame of the 20th Golden Group was a model for big powers and north -south cooperation. However, in order to safeguard their own dominance, some major powers are put pressure on the limit of the development of other countries, partially promoting economic and technological decoupling, administrative intervention in the layout of the industrial chain supply chain, abuse of sanctions, provoking geopolitical conflicts, and also pulling gangs to help the gangs Follow campization and opposition. This hinders global trade and cooperation, which not only increases inflation toughness, but also affects investment and consumer confidence, and will also greatly weaken the international coordination capabilities of global risk disposal and crisis response. Last year, the global economic growth rebounded to 6.1 %, but nearly half of the country's economy had not returned to 2019, and nearly 90 % of the country's two -year compound growth rate was lower than the five -year trend before the epidemic. If the above risks are not convergence but divergent, the weak world economy may slide to decline. China must seize the time window to effectively expand domestic demand to respond to external uncertainty challenges.

(The author is the global chief economist of China Banking Securities)

Send 2022.9.5 Total Issue 1059 "China News Weekly" magazine

Magazine Title: Risks of World Economic Recession Risks

Author: Guan Tao

Edit: Wang Xiaoxia

Operation editor: Xiao Ran

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