Pure alkali market is expected to fluctuate and recover

Since late August, the domestic market price of pure alkali is stable. As of the end of August, the average domestic lightweight soda price was 2625 yuan (tons price, the same below), and the average price of heavy soda was 2793 yuan. In January 2023, the price of pure alkali futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange rose 6%in August, which has reached a new high in nearly one month.

Many industry analysts believe that the performance of pure alkali demand is relatively stable, and recently some downstream need to have a replenishment database expectation; some companies have decreased in production levels, and inventory has decreased significantly. On the whole, the fundamentals and market emotions are constantly improved, and the spot market may run up narrowly in the later period.

Insufficient operating rate

Destocking accelerate

Since the beginning of this year, the price of pure alkali has risen from 2350 yuan at the beginning of the year to the highest point of June from 3,000 yuan. After that, with the decline of the aggressive raw materials, the price of pure alkali in late August also fell to about 2,600 yuan, but it has bottomed out and rose slightly.

Li Jiahao, an analyst of Nanhua Futures, believes that the supply of electricity in the early stage has tightened the power supply, and the lack of construction of pure alkali production enterprises has been insufficient. In the past two weeks, the inventory has accelerated. Although the Sichuan -Chongqing region with severe electricity in the near future has gradually resumed production, the overall intensity is insufficient. In addition, there is still a plan for corporate deposit inspection, so the operating rate of the pure alkali industry is difficult to increase significantly, and it is expected to bring support to the pure alkali market.

In terms of inventory, Longzhong Information Monitoring Data shows that in mid -August, the inventory of pure alkali enterprises was close to 500,000 tons, which was at a relatively low level; some glass factories were available for nearly 26 days, and the amount of delivery inventory was 200,000 tons. At a relatively low level.

The analysis data of Baichuan Yingfu showed that on August 26, the total inventory of domestic pure alkali enterprises was more than 400,000 tons, a decrease of 11.3%from last week. At present, domestic pure alkali manufacturers are relatively tight, and the inventory is mostly heavy alkali.

In terms of production capacity, Baichuan Yingfu statistics show that the current total domestic base production capacity is 34.16 million tons/year, and the operating capacity of the device is 21.96 million tons/year. In late August, the overall operating rate of the industry is about 70%.

It is worth noting that since the beginning of 2021, pure alkali manufacturers have maintained high profits. Based on the processes of aminoine, the current cost of pure alkali is as high as 1,800 yuan, but it still has a profit of more than 900 yuan, which is still in a high profit state. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to July, the cumulative output of solid alkali in my country was 16.924 million tons, a year -on -year decrease of 0.8%. "The output declined under high profit conditions this year, which indirectly shows that the production of pure alkali production has encountered a bottleneck and the output is insufficient." Li Jiahao analyzed that due to the relocation of Lianyungang alkali industry at the end of 2021, the production capacity was reduced by 1.3 million tons/annual capacity, which increased this year's pure alkali soda pure alkali Tension supply and demand relationship. In the case of limited overall production capacity, it is difficult to form a large increase in the supply of solid alkali this year, or it will bring some support to the market higher.

Photovoltaic expansion demand

Exit can pull

Skin -alkali is divided into light -alkali and heavy alkali. Among them, light -alkali is mostly used for daily glass, detergent, soft water, and food industries; heavy alkali is mainly used to produce flat glass, floating glass, and photovoltaic glass. Since the second half of last year, the glass industry has a strong demand for pure alkali, and the output of the pure alkali industry has increased slowly, which makes the product's supply in short supply and raise the price range.

From the perspective of the industry, the incremental demand for photovoltaic glass is the core driving force for the higher price of pure alkali.

According to the data provided by the Chinese Architectural Glass and Industrial Glass Association, from January to July, the new production capacity of photovoltaic glass in the country increased by 63.6%year -on -year. According to the analysis data of Huatai Futures, from January to August, there were 23 photovoltaic glass production lines for production and production and production in China. 10,000 tons of daily melting production lines are put into production.

In addition, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association has raised 10GW of domestic new photovoltaic installation machines in 2022. It is expected that this year's photovoltaic glass production capacity will increase by about 30,000 tons, which will bring about 1 million tons of incremental demand for pure alkali. In the later period, with the progress of the production of photovoltaic glass, the impact of the rhythm of the operating rhythm of the pure alkali market will be more obvious.

In addition, the high energy prices of overseas energy, especially in Europe, have repeatedly reached high prices, which has made overseas pure alkali prices higher, which has also led to a large amount of exports of solid alkali in my country. From January to July, the net export of pure alkali in my country increased by 570,000 tons, an increase of 150%year -on -year.

According to the feedback from a number of companies, the exports of pure alkali in the next few months are expected to maintain a high level. Experts predict that the annual net export of pure alkali will increase by 900,000 to 1.1 million tons, which will also form a strong support for the domestic pure alkali market.

Basic orientation

Oscillating mid upward

With the coming season of "Golden Nine Silver Ten", the demand for overseas overlapping continues to exceed expectations, and the production capacity is limited. It is expected that the prices of pure alkali in the later period will be stable.

The Yangtze Securities Research Report believes that since 2022, the domestic real estate industry is sluggish, and the demand for traditional downstream floating glass has decreased, and the demand for pure alkali in emerging fields is considerable, and it is expected to hedge the impact. In addition, the need to continue to improve outside the soda soda, and the peak season of photovoltaic glass is approaching. In the short term, the demand for pure alkali will increase.

"Skin -alkali supply stages are limited, exports continue to grow high, heavy alkali demand is steady, light -alkali sales improve, and basically continue to continue. For floating glass and photovoltaic glass companies with demand for replenishment, they can choose to grasp the opportunity to grasp the opportunity to grasp Buy a set of insurance opportunities to reduce production costs. "Founder Futures analysis believes.

Li Jiahao said that the follow -up trend of pure alkali prices mainly depends on demand.In the short term, low inventory, weak expectations, high valuation, and strong base differences make the soda soda maintain a shock pattern.In the long run, it is necessary to verify the demand through inventory.If the real estate policy is frequent, it will also help repair the spot price of pure alkali.Long Dao, chairman of Jinshang Asset Management Co., Ltd., believes that in the context of "double carbon", the demand for pure alkali in new energy and other fields has steadily increased. At the same time, Europe and the United States are impacted by the energy crisis. The export of domestic pure alkali products is expected to continue.It is expected that the increase in the demand for pure alkali may continue until the second half of next year, and the price of pure alkali will rise steadily.The performance of pure alkali leading enterprises will continue to grow, and the growth space is expected.

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